Tags:
Journalism of Courage
The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Wednesday (January 18) announced the dates for Assembly elections in three states, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Tripura will vote on February 16; Meghalaya and Nagaland on February 27.
These elections are the first in a year packed with as many as nine Assembly elections that are likely to present some indications of the political mood of the country leading up to the Lok Sabha elections of 2024.
What is the political state of play in these states, each of which has 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly?
Tripura
In the last Assembly election in 2018, the BJP ended the Left Front’s 25-year rule in the state, winning 36 seats. The CPI(M) got 16 seats, and the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) 8. Biplab Kumar Deb became chief minister, but following controversies and poor performance, he was replaced by the relatively low-key Manik Saha, who remains the BJP’s face for the elections.
The CPI(M) has joined hands with the Congress for the coming elections. The parties have buried the hatchet to take on the BJP, and to continue to remain politically relevant in the state.
Another player is the TIPRA Motha led by Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, heir of the erstwhile Tripura royal family. What makes Pradyot and his party important is the substantial support he has among the tribal communities. As the former royal family member is seeking a guarantee on a Greater Tipraland state for tribals, it’s still uncertain which party he will eventually support.
Meghalaya
Cracks have appeared in the bond between Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) and the BJP.
In 2018, after a close election in which no party crossed the halfway mark — Congress won 21 seats, NPP got 19, United Democratic Party 6, and BJP 2 — NPP received the saffron party’s support along with that of the UDP and the Hill State People’s Democratic Party to form the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance.
However, last year, the NPP and the BJP locked horns after the latter party’s leader, Bernard N Marak from Garo Hills, was arrested by the state police on charges of alleged sexual abuse of children and running a “brothel”. The parties have announced they will fight the elections separately. Reports also suggest that the NPP distanced itself from the BJP because of its perceived anti-Christian image in the state.
Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has made inroads in the region. The biggest boost to the West Bengal chief minister’s hope of becoming politically relevant in Meghalaya came when 12 of 17 sitting Congress MLAs, led by former chief minister and six-time MLA Mukul Sangma, switched over to the TMC in 2021.
TMC is reliant on Mukul Sangma to deliver. The leader comes from the Garo Hills, which sends as many as 24 MLAs to the 60-member Assembly.
Nagaland
Much like last time, this year’s election is substantially influenced by the Naga peace talks.
Since 2021, the state doesn’t have an opposition because all parties — Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), BJP, Naga People’s Front (NPF) in addition to two Independent MLAs as partners — came together in order to seek a solution to the Nagaland problem and formed the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
But the upcoming elections won’t see the continuation of this alliance as the NPF has decided to fight alone and against the NDPP-BJP coalition.
The JD(U), which won 1 seat in the previous election, hopes to do better this time. In 2018, BJP won 12 seats, NDPP got 17, and NPF 26, with the NDPP’s Neiphiu Rio becoming the chief minister.
