Four takeaways from Bihar caste survey: On its significance, possible impact on elections
The data are not surprising — and are immensely significant for the upcoming state and national elections. They carry the potential of new battles in Bihar, and could be the big idea that can mount a challenge to the BJP’s Hindutva-plus-welfare pitch.
Enumerators collect information from residents in Patna after the High Court rejected a petition against the caste survey on Aug 2. (PTI)
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The Bihar government has released the results of its survey of castes in the state, which puts the share of Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) cumulatively at more than 63%. The “unreserved” category of so-called “forward” castes is about 15.5%.
Nationwide data on caste numbers were last released after the census of 1931. Enumeration of castes has for long been a political hot potato linked to demands for reservation, and the BJP’s central leadership has resisted a caste census in the face of loud clamours from the Opposition.
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1. What are the key findings of the Bihar caste survey?
The EBCs are the biggest social group comprising 4,70,80,514 individuals, or 36.01% of the state’s population. The OBCs number 3,54,63,936 (27.12%), and the Scheduled Castes (SCs) 2,56,89,820 (19.65%).’
Scheduled Tribes (STs) number only 21,99,361 (1.68%), the bulk of the tribal population having become part of Jharkhand after the bifurcation of the state in 2000. The “unreserved” category comprises 2,02,91,679 individuals (15.52%).
Bihar’s population, according to the survey, is 13,07,25,310, compared to the 10.41 crore recorded in the 2011 census. Hindus comprise 81.99% of the population, and Muslims 17.72%. The populations of Buddhists, Christians, Sikhs, Jains, and other religious denominations are minuscule.
2. When and how was the survey undertaken?
Following an all-party meeting, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced on June 1, 2022 that all nine parties, including the BJP’s Bihar unit, had unanimously decided to go ahead with the “caste census”. The government subsequently allocated Rs 500 crore from its contingency fund for the exercise.
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In the first phase of the survey, carried out between January 7 and 21, the number of households was counted. The second phase, which began on April 15 and was to be completed in about a month, was intended to collect data on castes, religions, and economic backgrounds, as well as on aspects such as the number of family members living in the state and outside.
However, the exercise was paused by the Patna High Court after five PILs were filed against it. The court initially said the state government was not competent to conduct what appeared to be a census, but allowed it to go ahead in August after the state submitted it was a “survey”, and assured that no one’s data would be divulged.
More than 3 lakh people, mainly teachers, went from door to door with a 17-question form on caste, religion, and economic status. An app was used to collect the data for tabulation and processing.
3. What is the significance of the Bihar caste survey findings?
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The politics of identity — based on reservation and backward caste assertion that allowed socialist parties like Nitish’s JD(U) and Lalu Prasad’s RJD in Bihar, and Mulayam Singh’s SP in UP, to dominate these states for a quarter century — has all but run its course. The Mandal-kamandal dichotomy was blunted by the arrival of Narendra Modi on the national scene, and the new BJP reached out to the OBCs with its mix of Hindutva and welfarism.
The results of the caste survey in Bihar could present the JD(U)-RJD with an opportunity for renewed backward class mobilisation. The Opposition INDIA alliance could use the survey to pressure the BJP to hold a nationwide caste census in the coming days.
The survey results will amplify the clamour for increasing the OBC quota beyond 27%, and for a quota within quota for the EBCs. The Justice Rohini Commission, which had been examining the question of “sub-categorisation” since 2017, submitted its report at the end of July — its recommendations are not yet public. The Bihar survey may well push other states to carry out similar exercises.
The survey data will also reopen the longstanding debate over the 50% ceiling on reservation imposed by the Supreme Court in its landmark ruling in Indra Sawhney v Union of India (1992). The ceiling was imposed to ensure “efficiency” in administration, and courts have since blocked several attempts by states to breach it.
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Bihar caste survey data
4. How can the caste survey findings impact the coming elections to Lok Sabha and the Bihar Assembly?
Lalu and Nitish, along with the Congress, showed the potential of the mutual transfer of votes to win 178 out of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections of 2015. According to the survey data, EBCs, OBCs, and SCs together account for more than 82% of the state’s population, a vote bank for which fierce battles will be fought.
In Bihar, Lalu and Nitish are still considered the primary leaders of OBCs, EBCs, and Dalits. The BJP can be expected to harp on the Prime Minister’s OBC background along with the achievements of his government — however, the complex caste dynamics of the state will not make it an easy sell.
Nitish, whose national ambitions are well known, has of late been lying low in the INDIA bloc. Given the importance of the EBCs across the Hindi heartland, he will be hoping that the survey emerges as the masterstroke that rebooted his hopes.
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THE EBCs & WHY THEY MATTER
THE EBCs are a group of 130-odd castes that occupy the lower rungs of the OBC spectrum that is dominated by the Yadavs and Kurmis. Among the EBCs are Mallah, Nai, Nonia, Dhanuk, Kahar, etc.
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KARPOORI THAKUR, who was Chief Minister of Bihar for a few months in 1970-71 and then from 1977-79, pioneered the politics of EBC. He was the first to announce quotas within quota, earmarking 12% for EBCs and 8% for OBCs. Karpoori’s government did not last long, but the politics of EBC remained and grew stronger over the decades. Lalu Prasad appealed to a wide section of EBCs until the 1995 elections.
NITISH KUMAR, after coming to power in 2005, cultivated the EBCs, announcing more than a dozen welfare schemes for them. Nitish’s own caste has a small base, and the EBC support has been crucial to his staying in power for so long.
Santosh Singh is a Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express since June 2008. He covers Bihar with main focus on politics, society and governance. Investigative and explanatory stories are also his forte. Singh has 25 years of experience in print journalism covering Bihar, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.
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