Congress in pole position

Congress currently leads in 137 seats, well above the halfway mark of 113. The BJP leads in 63 seats and JD(S) leads in 20. Congress is most certainly set to form the next Karnataka government. Reacting to the early trends where Congress is leading, former chief minister and Congress leader Siddaramaiah said he was confident that the party will win more than 120 seats. "The BJP might win 65-70 seats while JD(S) will win 25 seats," he said. Celebrations are already underway at the Congress Party headquarters in Delhi, with party workers celebrating with Hanuman posters.

Congress’s success due to focus on local issues, avoiding getting entangled in Hindutva rhetoric.

What is behind the Congress’s win? Manoj CG points to 3 things. Carefully crafted unity message: The two stalwarts of the Karnataka Congress, DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah have been long known to be at loggerheads. Congress was able to keep their issues at bay and coordinated well-crafted joint appearances, showing a clear united front. Five guarantees, the idea being to tap women and youth: Women and youth have been a big vote bank for the BJP under PM Narendra Modi, and the Congress made a concerted push to make a dent here. Bajrang Dal gambit and unexpected Muslim consolidation: Top leaders of the Congress admitted in private that the mention of Bajrang Dal in the manifesto equating it with the banned Popular Front of India was “avoidable”. But the party decided not to back down, and barring one dissonant voice by M Veerappa Moily, it defended its position throughout, possibly leading to Muslim consolidation in its favour.

Loss on expected lines for the BJP.

Most exit polls had indicated a BJP loss in Karnataka. Currently, with 63 seats, the BJP’s number falls well short of its 2018 performance when it won 104 seats. With this loss, BJP is set to lose control of the lone southern state under its rule. Since 1985, Karnataka has voted against the incumbent government every single time. With the exception of 2004 and 2018, where Congress managed to form the government (albeit only for a year) with the help of a coalition with the JD (S), no party has been a part of the Karnataka government for two consecutive terms.

Congress gains in terms of vote share, at the expense of JD (S).

Congress has gained around 5 per cent in terms of vote share when compared to 2018, winning 43 per cent of all votes polled. While BJP’s vote share remains approximately the same when compared to 2018 (at 36 per cent), the big loser here is JD (S), which has witnessed a negative 5 per cent swing, securing 13 per cent of total votes polled.

All party leaders leading in their constituencies, a number of ministers trail.

During the initial rounds of counting, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, Leader of Opposition Siddaramaiah, KPCC president D K Shivakumar and JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy are all leading in their constituencies. However, a number of ministers from the incumbent government currently trail. They include minister B Sriramulu (Bellary Rural), JC Madhuswamy (Chikkanayakanahalli), Murugesh Nirani (Bilgi), BC Nagesh (Tiptur), Govind Karjol (Mudhol), V Somanna (Varuna and Chamarajanagar), Dr K Sudhakar (Chikkaballapur), Shashikalla Jolle (Nippani) and others.

Bellary Reddy, Congress ally ahead

Two small new parties are set to win a seat each in the Karnataka Assembly — one a Congress ally, the other set up by a mining baron and former MLA and minister who quit the BJP less than five months ago. Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha (KRPP) At 2.30 pm, Gali Janardhana Reddy, who was minister in the government of B S Yediyurappa from 2008-11, was leading Iqbal Ansari of the Congress by more than 4,000 votes at the Gangawati seat in Koppal district. Reddy, one of the three “Bellary brothers” who built a fortune in iron-ore mining, formed KRPP on December 25 last year. Reddy's wife, Gali Lakshmi Aruna, was the candidate of his party for the family's pocket borough Bellary City, and was trailing the Congress's Nara Bharath Reddy by more than 20,000 votes. The BJP candidate, Gali Janardhana Reddy's brother Gali Somasekhara Reddy, was in third position. Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha (SKP) The SKP is a Congress ally. The Congress contested 223 seats in the Assembly, leaving Melukote in Mandya district for Darshan Puttannaiah of the SKP. At 2.30 pm, Puttannaiah was leading C S Puttaraju of the JD-S by more than 11,000 votes. Puttannaiah 45, is the son of the late farmer leader K S Puttanaiah, and has been saying in interviews that farmers need to have a voice in the Karnataka legislature.

Karnataka Assembly Election Results Explained: 6 takeaways so far

Congress is set to return to power in Karnataka after a tightly contested assembly election. After four hours of counting votes, Congress’s seat tally stands at 137, with BJP at 63 and JDS at 20.

Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai has conceded defeat, saying “Despite best efforts by PM, cadres, we were not up to mark.”

The Karnataka Assembly comprises 224 seats with 113 seats needed to form a majority.

Here are six key takeaways so far.

01
Congress in pole position
Congress currently leads in 137 seats, well above the halfway mark of 113. The BJP leads in 63 seats and JD(S) leads in 20. Congress is most certainly set to form the next Karnataka government.

Reacting to the early trends where Congress is leading, former chief minister and Congress leader Siddaramaiah said he was confident that the party will win more than 120 seats. "The BJP might win 65-70 seats while JD(S) will win 25 seats," he said.

Celebrations are already underway at the Congress Party headquarters in Delhi, with party workers celebrating with Hanuman posters.
02
Congress’s success due to focus on local issues, avoiding getting entangled in Hindutva rhetoric.
What is behind the Congress’s win? Manoj CG points to 3 things.
- Carefully crafted unity message: The two stalwarts of the Karnataka Congress, DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah have been long known to be at loggerheads. Congress was able to keep their issues at bay and coordinated well-crafted joint appearances, showing a clear united front.
- Five guarantees, the idea being to tap women and youth: Women and youth have been a big vote bank for the BJP under PM Narendra Modi, and the Congress made a concerted push to make a dent here.
- Bajrang Dal gambit and unexpected Muslim consolidation: Top leaders of the Congress admitted in private that the mention of Bajrang Dal in the manifesto equating it with the banned Popular Front of India was “avoidable”. But the party decided not to back down, and barring one dissonant voice by M Veerappa Moily, it defended its position throughout, possibly leading to Muslim consolidation in its favour.
03
Loss on expected lines for the BJP.
Most exit polls had indicated a BJP loss in Karnataka. Currently, with 63 seats, the BJP’s number falls well short of its 2018 performance when it won 104 seats. With this loss, BJP is set to lose control of the lone southern state under its rule.

Since 1985, Karnataka has voted against the incumbent government every single time. With the exception of 2004 and 2018, where Congress managed to form the government (albeit only for a year) with the help of a coalition with the JD (S), no party has been a part of the Karnataka government for two consecutive terms.
04
Congress gains in terms of vote share, at the expense of JD (S).
Congress has gained around 5 per cent in terms of vote share when compared to 2018, winning 43 per cent of all votes polled. While BJP’s vote share remains approximately the same when compared to 2018 (at 36 per cent), the big loser here is JD (S), which has witnessed a negative 5 per cent swing, securing 13 per cent of total votes polled.
05
All party leaders leading in their constituencies, a number of ministers trail.
During the initial rounds of counting, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, Leader of Opposition Siddaramaiah, KPCC president D K Shivakumar and JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy are all leading in their constituencies.

However, a number of ministers from the incumbent government currently trail. They include minister B Sriramulu (Bellary Rural), JC Madhuswamy (Chikkanayakanahalli), Murugesh Nirani (Bilgi), BC Nagesh (Tiptur), Govind Karjol (Mudhol), V Somanna (Varuna and Chamarajanagar), Dr K Sudhakar (Chikkaballapur), Shashikalla Jolle (Nippani) and others.
06
Bellary Reddy, Congress ally ahead
Two small new parties are set to win a seat each in the Karnataka Assembly — one a Congress ally, the other set up by a mining baron and former MLA and minister who quit the BJP less than five months ago.

Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha (KRPP)

At 2.30 pm, Gali Janardhana Reddy, who was minister in the government of B S Yediyurappa from 2008-11, was leading Iqbal Ansari of the Congress by more than 4,000 votes at the Gangawati seat in Koppal district.

Reddy, one of the three “Bellary brothers” who built a fortune in iron-ore mining, formed KRPP on December 25 last year. Reddy's wife, Gali Lakshmi Aruna, was the candidate of his party for the family's pocket borough Bellary City, and was trailing the Congress's Nara Bharath Reddy by more than 20,000 votes. The BJP candidate, Gali Janardhana Reddy's brother Gali Somasekhara Reddy, was in third position.

Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha (SKP)

The SKP is a Congress ally. The Congress contested 223 seats in the Assembly, leaving Melukote in Mandya district for Darshan Puttannaiah of the SKP. At 2.30 pm, Puttannaiah was leading C S Puttaraju of the JD-S by more than 11,000 votes.

Puttannaiah 45, is the son of the late farmer leader K S Puttanaiah, and has been saying in interviews that farmers need to have a voice in the Karnataka legislature.

Tags:

Explained Politics Express Explained Karnataka elections