What is the Egyptian alternative to Trump’s Gaza plan?

The Cairo Declaration is the first collective Arab proposal for Gaza’s “day after”, contingent on the “full implementation of the ceasefire agreement…especially by Israel”.

It is also the first plan for the reconstruction of Gaza presented since United States President Donald Trump’s proposal last month that the Palestinians should be permanently evicted from the enclave, which America should then “own” and turn into a “Riviera”.

Elements of continuity…

The Cairo Declaration follows the Bahrain Declaration from the last Arab League Summit in Manama in May 2024.

It calls for “a Gaza administration committee” comprising “qualified Gazans, for a transitional period”, pledges a “trust fund” for recovery-and-reconstruction projects, and commits financial, political, and material support for the Egypt-led reconstruction plan based on studies by the World Bank and the UN Development Fund.

The proposal repeats the Bahrain Declaration’s call for United Nations peacekeeping forces in Gaza and the West Bank — a plan a version of which Israel supported at least until March 2024.

In line with consecutive Arab League declarations, the Cairo proposal reiterates support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It maintains the continuity of the Arab position that was first articulated in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, but notes that the Arab acceptance of Israeli sovereignty has always been contingent on the establishment of “a Palestinian state based on the two-state solution in accordance with international law, and guarantee [of] an independent, sovereign Palestinian state within the June 4, 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, living peacefully alongside Israel”.

The Declaration also reiterates the League’s emphasis on “the importance of uniting all Palestinian factions under the Palestine Liberation Organization (after essential reforms), the legitimate and sole representative of the Palestinian people”.

The PLO, an umbrella grouping of Palestinian political parties such as Fatah, does not include Hamas.

…And of change in proposal

The Cairo Declaration does not mention Hamas or the need to remove it, arguably leaving some room for the group to continue in the interim. Both Israel and the US criticised the Summit’s outcomes — the lack of mention of Hamas is among the reasons why.

The Declaration sees the proposed interim administration as a preparatory body until the Palestinian Authority (PA) can take over — to bring back unified governance of Gaza and the West Bank — and eventually hold legislative and presidential elections. Israel has consistently rejected such a role for the PA over the last 17 months.

Hamas has welcomed the Declaration and the reconstruction plan, arguably because of the commitment to hold fresh elections. The last elections, held in 2006, returned a Hamas majority — and a rejection of the result by Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah led to its violent ejection from Gaza.

The question remains: what if Hamas or Hamas-linked candidates win again? The popularity of Hamas in Gaza has been evident in its replenished strength despite a significant loss of experienced fighters.

The Cairo Declaration categorically rejects the “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians and recognizes the “crucial role of Jordan and Egypt in confronting displacement and the liquidation of the Palestinian cause” — directly countering Trump’s demand that Egypt and Jordan should absorb 2.3 million displaced Gazans.

It also doubles down on the Arab demand for Israel’s “complete withdrawal from the Strip, including the Philadelphi Corridor”. Such a withdrawal remains the litmus test for whether the ceasefire can hold and usher in the “day-after” in Gaza.

The future of Palestine

The order of events for peace in Palestine would be thus: cessation of all Israeli military action in Gaza and the West Bank, followed by a reconstruction and interim governance plan accepted by all parties including Israel and Hamas, and the settlement of the political question of Palestinian statehood.

The Cairo Declaration is a preparatory document for an on-ground scenario that is yet to manifest. While Israel will seek to force new terms for the ceasefire, there are now two visions for the reconstruction of Gaza — those of Palestine and the Arab states, and of Israel and the US.

The Cairo Declaration, which followed the “mini-Arab Summit” in Riyadh on February 21, was likely geared towards presenting a robust counter — replete with visuals of potential luxurious landscapes and architecture in Gaza, presented by Egypt — to Trump’s proposals for the Strip.

In reality, the plan cannot be implemented without cooperation from Israel — which will require Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to give up his insistence on the complete elimination of Hamas from Gaza.

Also, while the Declaration reiterates the demand for the two-state solution, the prospects of its implementation remain bleak.

The Israeli settler population in the West Bank was 700,000 in 2023 — and Netanyahu had committed to more than 1,000 new settler homes in the West Bank that June. In 2024, he promised another 5,300 new homes.

In March 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights linked the record rise in illegal settlement expansion with the elimination of “any practical possibility of establishing a viable Palestinian state”.

Unless Israel ceases the expansion of settlements and withdraws existing settlement infrastructure, the two-state solution in any presently envisioned form will be impossible to achieve.

Bashir Ali Abbas is a Senior Research Associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, New Delhi