US embassy in Kyiv shut over attack fears: Unpacking Biden’s move to let Ukraine use ATACMS inside Russia

A day earlier, Ukraine had struck Russia with American ATACMS missiles, which Joe Biden finally allowed Kyiv to do in the fag end of his tenure.

What exactly did Biden allow Ukraine to do?

Weeks before he leaves the White House, Biden has provided authorisation to Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, also known as ATACMS, inside Russia. The Biden administration had secretly sent these missiles to Ukraine earlier this year, under the stipulation that Ukraine would not use it inside Russia.

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin had warned that Moscow would view the use of these long-range missiles on Russian territory as the “direct participation” of NATO countries in the war.

The recent US authorisation appears limited to allowing Ukraine to defend its forces inside Russia’s Kursk region.

Experts believe that the US decision is linked to North Korean soldiers entering the war in support of Russia.

Why Kursk?

Last month, indianexpress.com had explained why the Kursk region was important in the war between Russia and Ukraine, where Kyiv’s surprise offensive over the Russian territory had caught Moscow off-guard. Russia is trying to regain Kursk, this time with the help of North Korean soldiers.

Kursk is crucial because it creates a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia, and both Kyiv and Moscow want military control over it.

Ukraine on Tuesday struck Russia’s Bryansk region, which is close to Kursk and is helping Russia’s war efforts there.

What threats do long-range missiles pose?

According to the Arms Control Association, a US-based organisation that promotes awareness on arms control policies, “ballistic missiles are powered by rockets initially but then they follow an unpowered, free-falling trajectory toward their targets. They are classified by the maximum distance that they can travel, which is a function of how powerful the missile’s engines (rockets) are and the weight of the missile’s payload. To add more distance to a missile’s range, rockets are stacked on top of each other in a configuration referred to as staging.”

Presently, 31 countries in the world possess ballistic missiles. However, only nine of these countries, including India, Pakistan, the US, China and North Korea, are known or suspected of possessing nuclear weapons with ranges that can exceed 1,000 km.

The missiles that the US has authorised Ukraine to use is a surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of hitting targets at up to 300km (186 miles). This range means that Ukraine may now be able to hit targets inside Russia, including Russian-annexed Crimea.

Also, the missiles are fuelled by solid rocket propellant and follow a ballistic path into the atmosphere before coming back down at a high speed and high angle, making them difficult to intercept, the BBC report says.

What will the ATACMS mean for the war?

Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, NATO states have largely withheld the supply of heavy artillery and advanced weapons to Kyiv, fearing escalation.

Now, experts believe that the US policy shift on ATACMS can open doors to other allies making similar concessions to Ukraine.

For instance, with Germany scheduled to hold snap elections in February, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been under pressure from political opponents to drop his resistance to sending German-made cruise missiles to Ukraine.

The UK and France have supplied the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to Ukraine, but Kyiv is so far only allowed to use them inside Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.

The Storm Shadow, also known as SCALP EG, is an “air-launched long range, conventionally armed, deep strike weapon, designed to meet the demanding requirements of pre-planned attacks against high value fixed or stationary targets” and can “be operated in extreme conditions, the weapon offers operators a highly flexible, deep-strike capability based around a sophisticated mission planning system,” according to MBDA, a European multinational corporation that manufactures missiles.

On November 18, The Guardian reported that the UK may allow the use of Storm Shadow inside Russia.

Experts believe that no single weapon can win the war for Ukraine, but can buy more time for Kyiv.