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Journalism of Courage
Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US presidential election comes amidst unprecedented tensions in West Asia, with the Israel-Gaza conflict showing no signs of ending over a year later.
The President-elect reiterating pursuing an “America First” policy could have major implications for the region. His previous term offers some clues about his views on the Middle East’s long-standing conflicts and how he may deal with them. We take a look.
Israel’s “best friend”: Trump has previously described himself as the best friend Israel has ever had. As President, he made decisions amenable to Israel, including shifting the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and officially recognising Israel’s claim to the disputed Golan Heights region in 2019.
Crucially, Trump prides himself as the architect of the Abraham Accords, which paved the way for the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab countries. Central to the accords were the countries — the UAE and Bahrain — recognising Israel as a sovereign state, an assertion that Arab states have rejected since Israel was established in 1948.
Trump is expected to continue making developments on this front. However, the ongoing war poses challenges. An Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation agreement was in the works before the Hamas attacks. If successful, it would have been a milestone for having an Arab power bring down the Palestinian issue as a priority.
Given the devastating war and the criticism Israel has faced for its military action, Saudi Arabia would not want to be seen engaging with the country now.
Leadership failure under Biden-Harris: Donald Trump has described the conflict as a failure of the US government under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Commemorating a year of October 7, he said the attack would not have happened if he were president. “The dawn of a new, more harmonious Middle East is finally within our reach. I will not allow the Jewish state to be threatened with destruction. I will not allow another Holocaust of the Jewish people. I will not allow a jihad to be waged on America or our allies, and I will support Israel’s right to win its war,” he added.
A swift end to the conflict in Palestine: Over his campaign, he has called for an end to Israel’s war in Gaza, promising “peace in the Middle East” while also urging Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” and “finish the job quickly”. This aligns with his stance that wars are costly and American involvement must be limited.
Trump also said he would “support Israel’s right to win its war on terror” but that “it had to win it fast no matter what happens”. Notably, the Gaza conflict was also an issue for Arab-American voters in the elections, many of whom broke away from supporting the Democrats.
Trump has further emphasised his role in restraining Iran and said that Iran’s attacks on Israel in the conflict would not have happened on his watch. “THIS WAR WAS TOTALLY PREVENTABLE. IT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED. IF I WERE PRESIDENT, IT WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED!” he posted on Truth Social, his social media site.
In his first presidential term, Trump adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
He scrapped the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme in exchange for relief from Western economic sanctions. At the time, he called it the “worst deal ever”. This was accompanied by crippling sanctions on Iran to isolate it economically and politically.
In January 2020, Trump authorised the military strike that assassinated senior Iranian military general Major General Qassem Soleimani, who headed the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Signalling continuity, he has maintained hostility towards the Islamic Republic throughout his campaign, alleging Iranian involvement in the assassination attempts against him.
“We’ve been threatened very directly by Iran, and I think you have to let them know … you do any attacks on former presidents or candidates for president, your country gets blown to smithereens,” he said at a rally in September. His campaign said US intelligence officials briefed him on “real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him.” Iran dismissed these allegations.
A former Trump official anonymously told Politico, “Tightening the economic noose around Iran is going to be a day one foreign policy priority to start cleaning up Biden’s Middle East mess.” This would include “a new wave of harsh economic sanctions on Iran and work to cut off its oil exports all while beefing up support for Israel.”
Maximum Pressure 2.0 would look different given the backdrop of regional conflict. Over the past few months, Iran has shouldered heavy losses from Israeli attacks, as have the groups Hezbollah and Hamas — which it supports. Trump has also repeatedly encouraged Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which are viewed by Netanyahu as an existential danger to Israel, according to a Bloomberg report.
