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The Israeli government has announced its plans to increase the spread of its military actions in the south of Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict with the Palestinian militant organisation Hamas.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel in which 1,200 people died and 250 were taken hostage. Israel’s counteroffensive since then has led to nearly 28,000 deaths in Gaza, the majority being women and children. It has claimed it aims to completely “eliminate” Hamas and that some of its contentious actions – such as sending forces inside Gaza’s hospitals – have been against hidden Hamas targets.
What’s behind the decision to attack Rafah, a city in the south of Gaza, where Israel previously asked civilians to evacuate? How have Palestinians and Israel’s allies reacted to this announcement?
On February 9, a translation of a message from the office of Israeli Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “It is impossible to achieve the war objective of eliminating Hamas and leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah. On the other hand, it is clear that a massive operation in Rafah requires the evacuation of the civilian population from the combat zones. That is why the Prime Minister directed the IDF and the defense establishment to bring to the cabinet a dual plan for both the evacuation of the population and the disbanding of the battalions.”
Essentially, Netanyahu has said that this military action will end only when Hamas is “eliminated”. “If we don’t eliminate the Hamas terrorists, these ‘new Nazis,’ the next massacre is only a question of time,” he said in January, according to Bloomberg. He also said that telling Israel not to enter Rafah is like telling them to lose the war against Hamas.
According to the United Nations, more than 1.4 million people are currently in Rafah, which was once a city of 300,000 people. This is because Israeli forces attacked all other areas of the narrow Gaza Strip. Barely a week after the Hamas attacks, on October 13, its military told 1.1 million people living in the north of Gaza to evacuate within 24 hours as its offensive began.
Rafah is also located close to Egypt and has a border crossing which helps supply food and fuel to Gaza. Since Gaza borders the Mediterranean Sea to its west and Israel to its east, its population has no other functioning checkpoints to exit the region at the moment. In November 2023, a partial opening of the Rafah crossing was allowed, allowing critically injured people and foreign nationals to go to Egypt.
As is the case with this conflict, there are roots to this issue in history. Back in 1967, Israel fought a war with Egypt (which had controlled Gaza since 1957) and Jordan (which occupied the remaining Palestinian region of the West Bank since 1950).
Israel took control of these regions after the war but let go of some control in the 1990s after the Oslo Accords were signed with Palestinian leaders. However, Israelis continued living there (referred to as “settlers”). Its government withdrew settlements in 2005, claiming threats to safety. “The purpose of the plan was to improve Israel’s security and international status in the absence of peace negotiations with the Palestinians,” it said.
With the bombardment of the Strip in recent months, there are not many viable options for safety and shelter for Palestinians. Already, access to basic amenities such as food, water and electricity is limited.
Further, some also believe that this military movement could lead to more Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip. In March 2023, Israel’s Parliament “repealed a 2005 Act that saw four Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank dismantled at the same time as Israeli forces withdrew from the Gaza Strip,” AP reported.
It noted that this move came from Netanyahu’s far right-wing government, “which is dominated by settler leaders and allies, to promote settlement activity in the territory.”
A 2024 New York Times report also said: “A group of Israelis hoping to live in Gaza at the war’s end has already published maps imagining Jewish-majority towns dotting the territory. Far-right Israeli lawmakers have drafted plans to make such settlements legal. And Israel’s national security minister has called for Arab residents to leave Gaza so that Jews can populate the coastal strip.”
It quotes an Israeli reserve soldier, whose family lived in Gaza before 2005, as saying, “The minute the war is over, we’ll build our homes there. The question isn’t whether we will return when the fighting is over, but if there will be a Gaza.”
But, it’s not just the Palestinians who are critical.
Israel’s strongest ally, the United States, has also spoken about the ongoing attacks. President Joe Biden said on February 9 that Israel’s response is “over the top.”
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said any Israeli ground offensive on Rafah would have “disastrous consequences”. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also warned of repercussions. Egypt has threatened to suspend its peace treaty with Israel.
This is also significant because Egypt has refused to take in refugees from Gaza. The reluctance is perhaps explained by the fact that it does not want to become involved in a conflict which seems to have no definite end at the moment.
Egypt has been concerned about the activities of Hamas in the past and helped destroy many of the underground tunnels in the region, used for Hamas members’ movement.
“But Arab countries and many Palestinians also suspect Israel might use this opportunity to force permanent demographic changes to wreck Palestinian demands for statehood in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, which was also captured by Israel in 1967. El-Sissi repeated warnings Wednesday that an exodus from Gaza was intended to ‘eliminate the Palestinian cause … the most important cause of our region,’” an AP report from last year said.
AP also reported that Israel has carried out “almost daily airstrikes in Rafah”. Just on Saturday, three airstrikes killed 28 people. “Each strike killed multiple members of a family, including a total of 10 children, the youngest 3 months old,” it added.
