Donald Trump is convicted. Could he still be President of the United States?

What punishment will Trump get for his crime?

This will be known on July 11, the date that judge Juan M Merchan has set for the sentencing.

Alvin L Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who prosecuted the case, has not said what punishment he would seek for Trump. In theory, the judge could put Trump in jail for up to four years, but he is not required to do so — and the former President could end up getting a probation.

What happens to his campaign as a result of the conviction?

Not much. The Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin in Milwaukee on July 15, at the end of which Trump is expected to officially accept the party’s nomination.

Meanwhile, he will appeal, first to the Appellate Division in Manhattan and, if he fails to get relief, to the Court of Appeals in Albany, the highest court in New York state. He then has the option of going to the US Supreme Court.

In any case, the appeals are expected to continue far beyond the presidential election of November 5. He is at the moment free to campaign, and could remain so even after the sentencing.

In fact, even if Trump is jailed, he can campaign from prison. The last precedent for this is the case of Eugene V Debs, who ran as the Socialist candidate for US President in 1920 while in prison. Debs received 3.4% of the vote in the election that was won by Warren G Harding of the Republican party.

While Trump has been tried and convicted in Manhattan, New York City, in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, he still faces three other criminal cases — two in federal courts in South Florida and Washington DC, and one in a state court in Georgia.

These three cases are more serious and complex than the hush money case — Trump is accused of mishandling classified documents in Florida and of conspiracy to subvert democracy in the other two prosecutions — but have been delayed. It is possible that trial does not begin in any of these cases until Election Day.

Does this mean he can be a candidate for President even after being convicted?

Yes. Under the US Constitution, a candidate must only be 35 years or older, be a “natural born” citizen, and should have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

There is no bar based on a candidate’s criminal record. In some American states, felons are not allowed to run for state or local offices, but this does not apply to federal offices, including that of President.

The New York Times said in an explainer that states could, in theory, try to keep Trump off the ballot by passing legislation requiring a clean criminal record, but this would be on “legally shaky ground”.

What is this argument about the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution?

Section 3 of the 14th Amendment says that “no person shall…hold any office, civil or military, under the United States,…or as an officer of the United States” if he has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” after having “taken an oath…to support the Constitution”.

It had been argued that Trump’s actions before and on January 6, 2021, when his supporters stormed the US Capitol, disqualified him on this count — and he had been found ineligible by the Colorado Supreme Court and the Secretary of State in Maine.

However, in March this year, the US Supreme Court ruled that states could not push Trump off the ballot under this section. The court concluded that only the US Congress could enforce the bar in Section 3 against a candidate running for federal office.

What if the Republican Party decides that Trump cannot be its candidate?

Trump has already got the support of the majority of delegates to the Republican Convention. There is now no mechanism available to nominate someone other than Trump to the ticket.

The New York Times explainer noted that under the party’s official convention rules, if a delegate tries to support someone other than the person the primary results bound them to, “such support shall not be recognized”.

The party could have someone else if Trump were to withdraw on his own. But as of now, no top Republican has suggested that they should dump Trump, and this situation looks unlikely to change.

OK, so Trump can contest — but can he vote?

In India, an undertrial prisoner can contest an election, but he cannot vote. In the US, this will probably depend on what kind of sentence he gets.

Trump is a voter in Florida, and convicted felons in that state have their right to vote taken away until they have completed their sentence and paid all fines etc. But New York, where the conviction happened, allows felons to vote while on parole or probation.

In this light, The New York Times explainer said: “…There is a chance that if New York would let Trump vote, then Florida will, too. There’s a provision in Florida law that might apply New York’s standards, because that’s where the conviction happened.”

However, if Trump were to be put in prison rather than being given probation, he will not be able to vote in his own election.

Is it possible that Trump is elected while in jail?

Yes. There is nothing in the law to make him ineligible due to his being in jail. Legal experts quoted in the American media have said the framers of the Constitution probably never conceived of this possibility.

But it is not known how such a presidency might function. “We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told The New York Times.

This would be a new and unprecedented legal crisis, and a battle in the courts will likely inevitably follow.