Democrats win crucial races: 5 key takeaways

For Democrats, who were down and out last year, these triumphs are invigorating. But major questions remain regarding the party’s future. Here are five key takeaways.

1. Big wins for Democrats across ideological spectrum

Democrats of various ideological hues were triumphant on Tuesday.

Self-proclaimed socialist Zohran Mamdani came out on top against political heavyweight Andrew Cuomo for the second time this year to become the New York City mayor-elect. Meanwhile, centrists Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill won in the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively.

In all three of these big ticket races, Democrats prevailed with big margins: Mamdani had a 12% lead over Cuomo, who ran as an independent, while Spanberger and Sherrill were 15% and 13% ahead of their respective Republican opponents, Winsome Earle-Sears and Jack Ciattarelli.

While none of these results are surprising, they demonstrate a level of energy among Democratic voters that was missing last year. Voter turnouts were at historic highs in many places. For instance, more than two million New Yorkers cast their vote this year, the highest in a mayoral election since 1969, and a far cry from the 1.15 million votes cast in the 2021 mayoral polls.

2. Economy & affordability were the primary focus

There are real differences in the politics of the Democrats who won big on Tuesday, and none of them provide a template for the party to follow nationally. Their campaigns were, first and foremost, grounded in local issues.

That said, there was a common thread: the state of the economy and affordability. Trump came to power in 2016 by chanelling deep-seated economic grievances in the American body politic against the apocryphal Other — immigrants, minorities, trans people, etc. He returned to power in 2024 by promising to curb runaway inflation and return manufacturing jobs to America.

As President, Trump has not been able to make good on these promises. The recent government shutdown and cuts to social security have led to hardship for many, including those who voted for Trump. All Democrat campaigns recognised this, and instead of focussing on culture wars or fear-mongering about the threat to democracy (like in 2024), they kept their message centred around economic issues.

Even though candidates’ prescriptions might have differed — Spanberger, for instance, was light on details but promised to run a competent ship, while Mamdani floated ambitious proposals, from making busses free to freezing the rent to opening state-owned grocery stores — their commitment to stick to economics was a marked difference from previous Democratic campaigns.

3. Signs of growing disaffection against Trump presidency

While Trump was not on the ballot, his presence still loomed large in every race. For Democrats, this was an opportunity to tap into the building disaffection with Trump’s rule.

According to a latest analysis by The Economist, no American President has seen his popularity tank as fast as Trump in his second term: his net approval rating — those who approve of the job he is doing less those who do not — is now -18%, a far cry from the +2% when he began his term, and lower than at any time during his first stint.

At the ballot box, this translated into some major reversals from last year.

For instance, in New Jersey, one key question was whether Ciattarelli, who enjoyed vocal support from the President, could replicate Trump’s performance with Latino voters. This traditionally Democrat-voting demographic had swung towards the Republicans last year: Trump won 46% of their vote compared to Harris’ 51%. (In elections past, the Democratic candidate has usually claimed upwards of 60% of the Latino vote). On Tuesday in New Jersey, Sherrill regained ground among Latinos, winning 64% of their vote compared to Ciatarelli’s 32%, as per CNN’s exit poll.

Overall, compared to the 2024 margins, the Republican voteshare fell across demographics, and in almost all races.

4. California passes major redistricting measure

It is yet to be seen whether these results are a flash on the pan for Democrats. That said, one key development has bolstered their chances to retake control over the House of Representatives next year.

California’s voters on Tuesday approved a ballot measure that would scrap the current congressional district boundaries in the state in favour of new ones. Amid ongoing Republican efforts to redraw congressional district boundaries, this could hand Democrats five more favourable districts which might flip the house in their favour.

Congressional and state legislature districts have long been a contested battlefield in American politics. With the US Supreme Court now considering to strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which effectively puts a cap on partisan gerrymandering, especially in diverse states, the battle to redraw electoral maps is likely to further heat up in the future. In this context, the passage of Proposition 50 in California is particularly significant .

It is also important for California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is said to harbour presidential aspirations. One of the most aggressive Democratic leaders today, someone who is seen as being capable of taking on Trumpian rhetoric head on, Newsom was at the forefront of the Democratic campaign to get Proposition 50 passed.

5. Democrats still lack unity, more infighting likely

The political and ideological diversity among Tuesday’s victors means that the Democratic party is likely to witness more infighting in coming months. At the end of the day, Democrats still do not have a unified vision for the future of the party.

Since pivoting to the economic right during the Bill Clinton years, the Democratic establishment has often deprioritised the interests of their traditional voter base — blue collar workers, immigrants, etc. — in favour of big capital. The party has, in recent years, struggled to find a coherent political vision that appeals to both its voter base and the donor class.

Both Trump victories came against opponents who promised to maintain the status quo at a time when millions felt alienated with it. The Democratic wins on Tuesday night do not fundamentally address this problem: even as progressives invoke Mamdani as the future of the party, centrists point to the campaigns of Sherrill and Spanberger to make an argument for remaining in the political centre. At the moment, there is no consensus in the party one way or the other.

With the primaries for the midterms only months away, these cracks in the party, between the so-called left wing and the centrists, are likely to widen. More ‘Mamdanis’, who zag from the party establishment, might be around the corner. Time will tell if they are able to pull off more upsets, or the centrist establishment prevails.