Even if convicted, why Trump could again become US president

The Republican presidential candidate’s trial relates to an alleged $130,000 payment made to Daniels in October 2016, during the final weeks of his first presidential campaign. His then lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid the adult film star off in exchange for her silence about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump.

In 2018, after initially denying any knowledge of the payment, Trump admitted to reimbursing Cohen for what he called “a simple private transaction”. The same year, however, Cohen pleaded guilty to a host of charges, and testified that Trump and his company had falsely classified the purpose of the Daniels-payment by labelling it as a legal expense.

This led prosecutors to conclude that the money given to Daniels was “an improper donation” to the Trump campaign. While making a false entry in company records is a misdemeanour as per New York State law, falsifying records to conceal another crime — in this case violation of election law, to silence a potential sex scandal — is a felony.

If convicted, what punishment is Trump looking at?

The prosecution has charged Trump with 34 counts of felony for falsifying business records. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

According to New York law, the maximum sentence for each charge is four years imprisonment. First-time offenders (like Trump), however, are treated more lightly, and it is rare for people with no criminal history to be sent to prison solely for the falsification of records.

A fine, probation, or more seriously, home confinement, are all more likely punishments, especially given that as a former president with a lifetime Secret Service detail, the logistics of keeping Trump safe behind bars will be extremely tricky. Moreover, if he is convicted and imprisoned, Trump is likely to still be released on bail during the appeal.

But can Trump still be president if convicted?

There is no legal provision barring Trump from becoming President even if he is convicted. The United States Constitution sets very few eligibility criteria — the President must be at least 35 years old, and a “natural born” citizen to have lived in the US for at least 14 years. In fact, in theory, Trump could even be sworn in from prison or home confinement if he were to win the election after being convicted and sentenced.

While states could try to keep Trump off the ballot by passing legislation requiring a clean criminal record, such legislation is unlikely to stand in courts. “I think the best reading of our Constitution is [that] you don’t let the state add new substantive requirements [to stand for elections],” Prof Jessica Levinson, an election law expert from Loyola Law School, told The NYT.

Moreover, Trump has long leveraged the criminal cases against him to his advantage by saying he is a part of a larger conspiracy. According to his campaign findings, he saw a surge in donations every time he was indicted.

Nonetheless, a conviction is a very different matter. A Reuters/Ipsos poll this month found a firm majority of voters viewed the New York criminal charges against Trump as serious, with a quarter of Republican respondents saying that they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony crime by a jury.

(With inputs from Reuters)