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Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu has been removed from his post on October 24, according to state media reports. The removal follows reports and speculations from September, after Li’s continued absence from public view. No replacement for the post has been announced yet.
In September, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke about the need for “a high level of integrity and unity” within the military, raising the possibility of Li’s removal. Some commentators said this can be a message against officials believed to be corrupt. In a similar fashion, Minister for Foreign Affairs Qin Gang had also stopped making public appearances earlier this year and was later removed from his post.
A Financial Times report from September 14 said that the US government believes Li has been placed under an investigation. “Three US officials and two people briefed on the intelligence said the US had concluded that Li, who has not been seen in public for more than two weeks, had been stripped of his responsibilities as defence minister,” it said.
Further, Rahm Emanuel, the US Ambassador in Japan said in a September 8 post on X, “President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None. First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks. Who’s going to win this unemployment race? China’s youth or Xi’s cabinet? #MysteryInBeijingBuilding”
Li Shangfu joined the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in August 1982 and holds a Doctor of Engineering degree. He is also a member of the party’s current Central Committee, a grouping of the top leaders.
According to an article in The Diplomat, published when Li was speculated to be elevated to the Ministerial post in March 2023, his father was a top PLA railway force general. It added, “Li is unique in his experience in both space operations and acquisition.” He was also under US sanctions for China’s purchase of Russian missile systems.
Bloomberg said in its report that his last public appearance was on August 29, when he delivered a keynote speech at the 3rd China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing.
The claims of Li’s disappearance have gained traction also because of the events preceding it in China, alluded to in Emanuel’s post.
Firstly, he mentioned Qin Gang. The then Foreign Affairs Minister had assumed the post in December 2022. He had not been seen in public for almost a month, beginning June 25, 2023. Qin had been giving international meetings and trips a miss as well, and on July 25, he was replaced by Wang Yi as the new minister.
A media release announcing this provided no information on Qin, or why the change happened. Since then, Qin has not been seen. Before these events, Qin was known to be close to President Xi and this was cited as a possible factor in his quick rise to a senior position.
For more on some other well-known Chinese personalities who disappeared from public view, read our explainer from July here.
What about the Rocket Force Commanders?
In China, the country’s President is the head of the Communist Party (officially, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China), the head of the military (or the Central Military Commission Chairman) of China and the head of State.
As Major General (retd) Prof GG Dwivedi wrote in The Indian Express in 2020, “It is customary for a nation to have an army but extremely rare for a political party to have one. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is an exception, as it owes allegiance to the Communist Party of China (CPC).”
On July 21, it was made official that Xi had signed on the promotion of two rocket force commanders. The force is in charge of the PLA’s land-based nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles. Wang Houbin and political commissar Xu Xisheng were made generals, which is the highest rank for officers in active service in China.
But it omitted mention of the previous commanders of the force – General Liu Guangbin and General Li Yuchano. A week later, the South China Morning Post reported that this “purge” or forced removal was part of a new anti-corruption drive. The report added, “As well as its role in the country’s nuclear deterrent, the rocket force is also an important element in Beijing’s efforts to ramp up the military pressure on Taiwan.”
The Bloomberg report also said, “China’s military also launched an inquiry into corruption cases linked to hardware procurement going back more than five years in July. The PLA’s Equipment Development Department listed eight issues it was looking into, including “leaking information on projects and army units” and helping certain companies secure bids.” Whether the two generals are accused in such an inquiry is unknown at the moment.
How have these events been seen by analysts?
The changes have followed Xi Jinping’s confirmation as the Party President for a third term. This was done in October 2022, at the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress, where Xi ignored the norms in place for retirement and term limits.
But Xi’s consolidation of power has been years in the making. Since he first became President in 2013, the Chinese President has purged senior officials under charges of corruption. Critics argue that these charges have been framed at times, to replace such officials with people more favourable to him. And while China has had a one-party rule since the modern country’s inception in 1949, there have been periods where greater centralisation has happened under certain leaders, such as Xi at present.
It also comes at a time when China faces significant domestic challenges. Its post-pandemic economic recovery has been difficult, and many observers say that it is past the peak that sustained its growth in the last few years. In August, it announced that it is pausing the release of official data on unemployment, suggesting possible tweaks to how the data is collected. This happened soon after concerns were raised about high unemployment rates for the population aged between 16 and 24 years.
Additionally, its relations with the West and many of its neighbours – including India – have deteriorated in recent years. Trade-related imbalances, China’s claims on territories and a deep sense of mistrust are just some of the issues that plague ties. In this light, the lack of transparency on matters of top leaders’ appointments and removal could further impact China’s impression globally.
