Fadnavis’s OBC base and Ajit’s Maratha image: With caste survey demand, the Maharashtra govt’s balancing act

The OBCs, which have been a core BJP base in Maharashtra for years, are apprehensive about ceding their reservation space to the Marathas. The BJP cannot alienate them but also cannot lose out on Maratha support; the party’s partnership with Shinde and Pawar (both Maratha leaders) is also seen as giving it a leg-up in consolidating Maratha support. The Dhangar community in the state is, meanwhile, demanding ST status.

Given the competing quota demands, the two Deputy CMs appear to have floated the caste survey trial balloon.

The logic

Fadnavis has been trying to retain his base among OBCs — accounting for roughly 52% of the state’s population — who have been a traditional BJP vote bank. This has been proving difficult given the opposition by OBC organisations to the Maratha demand.

After Rashtriya OBC Mahasangh activists Ravindra Tonge, Vijay Balki, Premarin Jogi sat on a hunger strike for 19 days outside the collector’s office at Chandrapur in Vidarbha region in September against the Maratha demand, Fadnavis personally visited Chandrapur to reassure the protesters. The BJP also announced an OBC rally to bring around the community.

The Marathas, on the other hand, are also numerically significant, at 33% of the state’s population. The community’s most prominent face in the ruling coalition, Ajit Pawar has been asserting that he is committed to Maratha reservation as long as it falls in the purview of the Supreme Court’s legal tests.

However, the rebellion against his uncle, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, means Ajit’s task is tough when it comes to Western Maharashtra. This area comprises eleven Lok Sabha seats and 70 Assembly seats and has been a Pawar family bastion for decades now. Hence, eyes will be on Ajit whether he can make a breakthrough in the area on his own, without Pawar senior’s backing. The caste survey demand could help bolster the image of a Maratha leader.

The total reservation pie in the state currently stands at 52%. The SCs constitute 13%, STs 7%, OBCs 19%, Special Backward Classes 2%, Vimukti Jatis 3%, Nomadic tribes B) 2.5%, Nomadic tribes (C) 3.5%, and Nomadic tribes (D) 2%.