US move to ease dual-use tech exports to India likely to boost commercial space cooperation ties

Over the years, commercial space cooperation between US and Indian firms has been constrained by protectionist policies on both sides but the recent announcement of changes in the US Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) combined with a new Indian Space Policy 2023 where “nothing is off limits for the private sector” are now expected to boost ties between both countries.

During his visit to New Delhi this week, Jack Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser (NSA) in the outgoing Joe Biden administration, announced changes in the US MTCR. “…as a result of new updates to our missile technology control export policies that President Biden signed out just last week—and which I’m glad to announce publicly for the first time today—our commercial and civil space partnership is set for lift-off,” Sullivan said in Delhi on Monday.

A fact sheet on the capstone meeting between the US NSA and his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week stated that one of the aims of the “new era of space cooperation” between the two countries would be: “Reducing barriers to collaboration around commercial space technology following the US government’s recent conclusion of updates to Missile Technology Control Regime export policy, which will open the door to additional technology licensing and co-development opportunities in support of the US-India space partnership”.

The changes to the MTCR export policy are now expected to lead to more US companies entering the Indian space sector which has been opened up for private participation under the new 2023 space policy.

While ISRO and NASA have been working for the last few years on developing a remote sensing satellite NISAR (NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite) which will “map the entire globe in 12 days” – the launch is scheduled this year – new collaborations are also expected in the launch of large US communication satellites by ISRO for the first time.

In June 2023, Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had welcomed the new Indian space policy under which space technology developed by ISRO would be transferred to private players. “Welcoming India’s Space Policy – 2023, the leaders called for enhanced commercial collaboration between the US and Indian private sectors in the entire value chain of the space economy and to address export controls and facilitate technology transfer,” a joint statement by the two leaders stated on June 22, 2023.

With US space entrepreneur Elon Musk, an influential policy figure in the incoming Donald Trump administration, moving his space enterprise SpaceX into the realm of launching heavy space cargo, US businesses could avail smaller launch vehicles developed by ISRO for lighter cargo with greater ease following the recent easing of MTCR export norms, say experts.

“There will be less reliance on bigger launch vehicles in the coming days. In this market, India will play a major role and US companies are interested. In the US, space launch firms like SpaceX are involved mainly with heavy-lift launches. We may be an autorickshaw compared to the Volvo bus of the US but autorickshaws are also going to be needed,” M Annadurai, the former director of the ISRO Satellite Centre, said about evolving space partnerships with the US.

According to commentary by the US-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the MTCR policy reform could be beneficial for the transfer of satellite technology, more launch vehicle orders, and momentum for more relaxation on tech transfers from the US to India.

“While a special regime or carve-out for Indian space enterprises under the ITAR [International Traffic in Arms Regulations] would be challenging in the short term, perhaps the current relaxation under United States’ policy on MTCR could lead to forward-looking discussions on a possible pilot program like the Open General License scheme extended to Australia for the AUKUS [a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States],” the commentary said.

An ecosystem is being created in the Kulasekarapattinam Spaceport (ISRO’s second spaceport apart from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh) under development in Thoothukudi in Tamil Nadu for the launch of small satellite systems and this is expected to make India a major player in the small satellites development and launch space, Annadurai said.

“The future is small satellite configurations for both remote sensing and communications,” he pointed out.  The number of small satellites that can be launched is in the thousands, he said. “With the new spaceport development along with the new space policy, India is emerging as a key player in aerospace on the lines of Japan and Germany for automobiles,” he said.

“Now semiconductor industries are being set up in India. We have our own Vikram processor and many of the things we are indigenously developing. Even materials we are getting in India. We also work with Japanese firms. There is competition between Japanese and US firms following the ‘Make in India’ thrust,” Annadurai said.

India’s space vision under the new policy

Under a decadal vision, the Indian government is aspiring to take its space economy from its current value of $ 8 billion to $ 44 billion by 2033. “This is one of the most challenging tasks for this is a 5x improvement or increase. We are looking at every sub-sector in the space industry be it launch vehicles, satellite manufacturing, data disseminations, application ground stations and so on to see how we can move the space economy,” Pawan Goenka, the chairman of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (IN-SPACe), had said at the 2024 Bengaluru Space Expo.

“It is very easy for ISRO to launch satellites but we have decided that rather than ISRO doing it, we will have the private sector coming in owning the satellites, operating them and monetising these satellites,” he said.

One of the major ISRO technologies that New Space India Limited (NSIL) – the new commercial arm of the Department of Space – is looking to commercialise is the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) which had a successful test flight in August last year. The SSLV costs one-fourth the cost of a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), which has been the workhorse of the Indian launch vehicle system for over three decades.

While NSIL signed a deal for a maiden commercial flight of the SSLV in 2019 – with a satellite of a US space start-up Spaceflight – even before it was tested, the deal fell through due to the subsequent Covid crisis and delays in the realisation of the SSLV rocket.

The first major commercial flight of the SSLV with a foreign payload is now expected to be in 2026 with the Optimus satellite of the Australian space firm Space Machines.