India’s CO2 emissions likely to register biggest rise for second year, says report

Carbon dioxide is the most important and extensive but only one of the six greenhouse gases whose rising concentrations in the atmosphere is leading to global warming.

The 8.2 per cent rise in India’s annual CO2 emissions for 2023 would be more than double the expected increase in China, which is set to see a 4 per cent growth this year. Last year, India’s emissions had grown by 6 per cent while China had seen a decline of one per cent.

However, China’s CO2 emissions, which accounts for 31 per cent of the global CO2 emissions, are about 4 times that of India. In absolute amounts, therefore, China’s increase in emissions in 2023 would be much higher than that of India.

“In India, the growth is largely driven by the high growth in demand for power, with new renewable capacity far from sufficient to meet the demand. Consolidated data now confirms that India’s CO2 emissions are now above those of the European Union since 2022,” the study said.

China’s growth, it said, was partly caused by a delayed rebound from the significant Covid-19 lockdowns.

India’s CO2 emissions are expected to be 233 million tonnes higher than previous year, 176 million tonnes of which is expected to be contributed by the coal-fired power plants.

Global CO2 emissions are expected to touch 36.8 billion tonnes — a new record — and 1.1 per cent over last year, the study said. Emissions from all kinds of fossil fuels — oil, gas and coal — are expected to rise, with oil likely to register a growth of 1.5 per cent, the highest. Emissions were expected to decline in 26 countries this year, accounting for about 28 per cent of global emissions. Last year, it had declined in 22 countries.

“If current CO2 emission levels persist, the remaining carbon budget for a 50 per cent chance to limit warming to 1.5 degree Celsius could be exceeded in seven years, and in 15 years for 1.7 degree Celsius would also be breached. Returning global temperatures below these thresholds after they have been crossed would require a massive scale-up of carbon dioxide removal after global net zero emission has been reached,” the study said.