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Journalism of Courage
In the first episode of Nikhil Kamath’s new podcast WTF is Finance, Indian-American investor and author Ruchir Sharma didn’t hold back on his outlook for the US markets. According to him, “The only reason for investing in the US today is AI.”
Sharma, who has built his reputation on reading global macroeconomic shifts, argued that beyond artificial intelligence, the American market looks increasingly unattractive for long-term investors. “Over the next five to ten years, I think the rest of the world outperforms the US,” he told Kamath, pointing out that most sectors are either overpriced or struggling with deeper weaknesses.
He acknowledged that US stocks have managed to stay afloat in 2025, but credits that almost entirely to the surge in AI-related companies. “If it weren’t for the AI mania, I think the American stock market would be down,” he said. While benchmarks like the S&P 500 have risen eight to nine per cent this year, Sharma noted that many overseas markets have done far better, delivering gains of about 20 per cent in dollar terms.
The conversation also turned to the idea of “American exceptionalism.” Sharma suggested that the notion is now being tested by slowing population growth, tighter immigration rules, and intensifying global competition. “The really underappreciated part of America’s advantage was demographics,” he explained. “Because of immigration, America’s population growth rate was much faster than Europe or Japan. That’s now changing.”
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Looking ahead, Sharma expects the US dollar to weaken over the next five to seven years, further undermining America’s investment appeal. He was equally critical of protectionist policies: “Generally, from a pure economic perspective, tariffs aren’t great. They’ve rarely helped countries in the long run.” Instead, he highlighted East Asia’s success with open markets and global competition.
