© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
Tags:
Journalism of Courage
NOW THAT it has won the big battle and swept Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan elections, making it all the more difficult for the Congress to narrow the gap ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, comes the big task for the BJP to decide who will lead the party governments in Bhopal, Raipur and Jaipur.
The resounding victories have made sure that the central leadership, which fought the elections in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name – or, alternatively, “the party’s” – will get to choose its person. It also allows the high command a free hand in bringing fresh faces to the fore in the state.
There have also been suggestions that the party could shift Raman Singh, Chouhan and Raje to the Centre to effect a complete generation shift in the state units.
However, the party realises the choice is more difficult than on paper, as what it does will have a bearing on the Lok Sabha polls. Currently, the BJP has absolute dominance when it comes to parliamentary seats in these three Hindi-heartland states – holding 28 of 29 constituencies in Madhya Pradesh, 25 of 25 in Rajasthan and 9 of 11 in Chhattisgarh.
If not replicating the same, it will hope to come as close to it as possible.
Senior party leaders said it was crucial to not just form the government now but also balance conflicting ambitions so that “the governments are stable and there is no derailing in preparation of cadres for the next elections”.
The Chhattisgarh choice should be simpler, given that former CM Raman Singh has been more or less in retired mode since losing power in 2018 and this time did not campaign much beyond his constituency Rajnandgaon. However, the party may still consider reverting to Singh, at least till the Lok Sabha elections, if it finds it difficult to pick a suitable face for its future plans in Chhattisgarh.
The case of Shivraj Singh Chouhan is more complicated. No one can deny the incumbent MP CM’s role in the BJP’s spectacular win in the state, against the burden of incumbency of four terms in power. Chouhan also remains the party’s most popular leader in the state, and enjoys influence among the newly elected MLAs.
The BJP’s tally of 166 – the second highest after its 173 seats in 2003, and the increase in its vote share to 48.55% (from 41.02% in 2018) – could only have been on the strength of Chouhan’s popularity, especially among women.
In an acknowledgment of the role of women in powering its return, the BJP made it a point to ensure that they were a big part of its victory show on Sunday evening.
Hence, the BJP might think twice before snubbing Chouhan, at least before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Like Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje is popular at the ground level but not with the current central leadership. However, unlike Chouhan, she can’t directly claim a hand in the BJP’s victory in Rajasthan. BJP leaders point out that she, in fact, kept away from the party’s official platforms, strategy planning or its programmes.
But her direct support was seen as behind at least 49 candidates, of whom 34 won. Sources said Raje is in touch with these loyalists, with a message to the leadership clear about what could follow if her claim is ignored. However, in a cadre-based party like the BJP, it won’t be easy for her to mount a serious challenge to the central leadership, especially one that is riding high.
The party will bear in mind though that unlike Chouhan, who is seen as a disciplined cadre man who will eventually go by the party leadership’s decisions, Raje can insist on having it her way.
Apart from local factors, the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah leadership, which has been criticised before for sidelining strong state leaders, will have an eye on lessons from states like Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Haryana, where the new faces handpicked by them could not repeat the party’s electoral performance after their first term.
Shah has admitted in the past that this experiment had seen its share of setbacks post-2014.
