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The Opposition’s euphoria over the glitch-free beginning to its unity efforts in Patna lasted all of 10 days. Then came Sunday’s blow, with the BJP taking away the cream of the NCP, a crucial party in the unity effort.
In one blow, the BJP completed its “revenge” for 2019, when NCP chief Sharad Pawar had weaned away the Shiv Sena and together with the Congress put together a Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition government, derailing BJP hopes. The BJP has now also cleared a wide path for itself on the road to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, a state that has been worrying the leadership, especially on account of the challenge posed by the NCP.
The surprise development had all the hallmarks of Union Home Minister Amit Shah at work. The chief election strategist of the BJP, Shah is back at the wheel steering the party since the Karnataka poll loss, reaching out to former allies and reassuring existing partners.
Sources said the deal with Ajit Pawar was clinched at a meeting chaired by Shah, running into the midnight hours on June 29, with both Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis present. The decision was then taken to give Ajit Pawar, who had failed to deliver NCP MLAs to the BJP in 2019, a second chance. “It’s all part of the strategy for 2024,” a senior leader said.
Party leaders said that the deal secures the BJP against losing power should Shinde and 16 of his MLAs who are facing disqualification be disqualified, and puts Shinde who was drumming up pressure for ministerial berths in his place. Now, Shinde and Ajit Pawar are both on equal footing, and both cognizant of their place in the power hierarchy as second to the BJP.
With Maharashtra apparently tackled, the BJP would be gearing up for headaches in some other states.
In Haryana, given the strained ties between the state unit and ally Jananayak Janata Party (JJP), the BJP recently tied up support from Independents to prepare for any possibility. But that might not be enough in a state where the BJP is facing many challenges, including two-time anti-incumbency, lingering anger over the farm protests, and recent protests by wrestlers against a BJP MP. Sources said that Shah has told state leaders to repair ties with the JJP.
In Punjab, where the BJP and former ally Akali Dal have been inching closer, the push for a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) by the Modi government might queer the pitch. The Akali Dal has made it clear that it would not accept such a code, with spokesperson Daljit Singh Cheema saying that a UCC would have “an adverse impact on minority and tribal communities”.
In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has sent feelers to another former ally, the TDP, with its chief N Chandrababu Naidu meeting the BJP national leadership last month in Delhi. The meeting, according to sources, discussed how the two parties were placed and the advantage that could accrue to them from an alliance.
However, while the two sides agreed to meet again to explore alliance possibilities in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, it is yet to materialise – reportedly due to reservations within both the BJP state units and the TDP ranks. Sources said the TDP fears a formal alliance might dent its prospects, and that an informal arrangement of “understanding and support” might work better.
“The BJP could give us support in terms of resources and a friendly approach,” a source in the TDP said, going on to talk about the cases started by Central agencies that are weighing on the minds of leaders of several regional parties.
The hobnobbing with the TDP appears to have sealed the matter as far as the YSRCP is concerned. While the ruling Andhra party has always been careful not to rub the Centre the wrong way, Shah indicated that the gloves were off during a recent visit to Visakhapatnam, where he lambasted CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, and said Andhra had become “a hotbed of corruption and lawlessness” under the YSRCP.
The sharpness of the attack was surprising given that the BJP might need the YSRCP’s support during voting for crucial Bills in the coming Monsoon Session of Parliament, including the National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Ordinance, 2023. While the BJP with its 303 members enjoys a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, in the currently 238-member Rajya Sabha, the Treasury benches will find it tough if non-BJP parties vote together against the Bill.
The YSRCP might not be comfortable supporting the NCT Bill, which will replace the ordinance taking away the powers of the Delhi government, given its implications for federal governance. On UCC too, the party has admitted to “difficulties” in accepting the concept, and is expected to announce its stand after Jagan’s scheduled meeting with Modi on Wednesday.
The BJP will also have to figure out its approach vis-a-vis the BJD, another “friendly party” at the Centre, which like the YSRCP has nine members in the Upper House. Unlike Andhra though, the BJP is the main Opposition party in Odisha, and hence a direct competitor of the BJD at the state level.
BJP MP Aparajita Sarangi has been at the forefront of the Opposition offensive against Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik’s private secretary V K Pandian, who has been taking on a public role and attending rallies on Patnaik’s behalf. Sources said the BJP has taken Pandian on as its strategy for Odisha rested on hopes that Patnaik would soon retire from active politics, leaving a vacuum.
Another lingering headache for the BJP is the situation in Manipur, where its government has not been able to check the violence, and which is now generating concern in the restive Northeast. A UCC could further exacerbate tensions given the apprehensions of tribal communities regarding it.
As it seeks to get its ducks in a row ahead of 2024 — from booths, all the way up — the BJP clearly can’t start counting its chickens just yet.
