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As interesting as the emergence of INDIA, the name given to an Opposition alliance, was the reappearance of Sonia Gandhi as its helmswoman without being formally assigned the role.
The 26 parties gathered in Bengaluru came up with a catchy name in INDIA. The Opposition has often been criticised for its inability to connect emotionally at the ground level in an idiom that could be comprehended by the last woman. INDIA is a word most people identify with — and is difficult to run down. The only question that arises is whether the country’s name can be used for a political outfit and this point was reportedly raised by an unhappy Nitish Kumar. The Opposition will have to ensure that it is used only as an acronym (the full name is a mouthful — Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
The legal validity of the name will be decided in due course. But what happens if the legal verdict goes against the Opposition just before the national elections?
Sonia Gandhi’s presence in Bengaluru as the virtual hostess — even though it was the recently victorious Karnataka government which hosted the meeting — killed many birds with one stone. She was like “a letter of comfort” for the regional leaders present there, giving a “main hoon na” message to them. Her CV is an impressive one. She crafted the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) almost 20 years ago and led the Congress to victory in 2004 and 2009. Over the years, Sonia, who is a good listener and is pragmatic, has enjoyed a rapport with leaders such as Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati. She managed to get Ram Vilas Paswan and M Karunanidhi on board when the UPA was set up in 2004, with the help of V P Singh even though he had dethroned her husband Rajiv as PM in 1989.
While Rahul Gandhi is finding greater acceptability in his party, the regional chieftains, be it Sharad Pawar or Mamata Banerjee, would have found it difficult to accept Rahul in the lead role in Bengaluru. But it was a different story with Sonia at the head of the table. In Patna, it was Rahul who dominated; in Bengaluru it was Sonia. Sonia’s presence may have also made it difficult for the regional parties to announce one of their own as the chair of the new alliance.
So, while the Congress tried to give reassuring signals to its regional allies and Mallikarjun Kharge made it clear that the party was “not interested” in the prime ministerial post, Sonia’s presence was meant to reinforce that message. Having given up prime ministership in 2004, she is not a candidate for the top post. So her leadership role is not likely to arouse fears about an overbearing Congress. And yet, her presence in Bengaluru kept the Congress in the lead role.
Given her indifferent health, she is unlikely to be a proactive “sutradhar” and sort out the nitty-gritty of differences in the Opposition camp. But as an equal to other tall Opposition figures she acted as a “kavach (shield)” for both the Congress and Rahul. There is speculation that she may be appointed the chairperson of INDIA, with Nitish Kumar as the convenor of the new alliance, at the next Opposition conclave set to be held in Mumbai.
The moot question, however, is different. Can the Opposition offer a real takkar to the BJP, with its all-powerful election machinery, in 2024? Could it be true, as Naresh Gujral of the Akali Dal, a party which is keeping its options open, put it: that while the BJP had “overwhelming support” in 2019 it has “just support” today, though PM Modi still remains “popular”.
Clearly, the BJP is not taking any chances. Its sudden decision to reconfigure, and extend, the NDA with 38 parties on board shows a lack of appetite for risks today. The BJP earlier did not make an effort to retain its longtime allies such as the Akali Dal, Janata Dal (United) and the Shiv Sena before its split. The party knows from experience that unless it pushes hard to move its graph upward, it can show a downward trend. Most of its 38 allies (old and new) are very small parties but obviously give it comfort.
The optics from Bengaluru of the leaders of 26 Opposition parties on one platform gave a psychological boost to the anti-BJP bloc. For years, it had felt downcast and helpless. But Opposition unity will really be fashioned more in the state capitals. It is Mamata Banerjee who will decide how many seats to leave for the Congress in West Bengal and the Congress will have to decide whether it remains with the Left, making it a triangular fight, or goes with the Trinamool Congress. And it is Arvind Kejriwal who will determine whether the Aam Admi Party leaves some seats for the Congress in Delhi, now that the grand old party has decided to support its fight against the Central ordinance depriving it of administrative control. In Punjab, the AAP is unlikely to leave seats for the Congress. It goes without saying that the real challenge for the Opposition will be the seat-sharing arrangements in the states.
Undoubtedly, more people view the Congress with greater interest today and it may mop up more Lok Sabha seats in states such as Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan as compared to 2019 when the BJP virtually peaked in these states. But will that be enough, unless the Congress tally hits 150?
Even if the BJP loses seats, it is likely to emerge as the single-largest party. Once that happens it will not lose time in mopping up the support of the smaller groups to cobble together a majority.
Besides the ground-level sentiment, elections are won by foot soldiers. The Opposition is focusing on effecting one-on-one contests. But its showing will also depend on the Congress’s performance in about 190 Lok Sabha seats where it is directly pitted against the BJP. And that will hinge on the party’s organisational heft and electoral machinery, which is weak in many states.
Yet, the INDIA vs NDA battle has suddenly become lively because the BJP is pulling out all stops and the Opposition is fighting back, with even a “retired” Sonia Gandhi resurfacing.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections)
