Despite angry farmers in Punjab, why BJP hopes to double Lok Sabha vote share, win 2027 Assembly polls

This time, the answer often comes as a shrug. But at a bus stop at Majaari, in the Anandpur Sahib parliamentary constituency, Baldev Singh, an elderly man in purple turban from Mojowal village, was quick to say, “Modi di (for Prime Minister Narendra Modi)”. This triggers a blowback from the shopkeeper behind him and a bunch of onlookers, who say in unison, “Ainwi, ehnu kuchh nahin pata (He doesn’t know a thing).” However, Baldev, who had retired from a Sikh light infantry battalion in 1992, and his frowning wife Swaran Kaur stood their ground.

This reflects the poll scene in Punjab, which is witnessing a four- or even a five-cornered contest for the first time in decades. Many people seem to be either clueless about the candidates or vocal for a certain leader or party.

In this backdrop, the BJP, which is contesting its first Lok Sabha polls in the state since 1996 without its erstwhile ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) led by Sukhbir Badal, appears to be upbeat about its prospects despite facing strident protests from the farmer union members, who are “boycotting” its candidates and confronting them in villages.

Baldev Singh, a resident of Mojowal village in the Anandpur Sahib constituency who retired from an Infantry battalion in 1992, and his wife Swaran Kaur, openly root for PM Narendra Modi. (Express photo)

In the past several Lok Sabha polls, of the state’s 13 seats, the BJP has always fought from three — Hoshiarpur, where it has won in the last two polls; Gurdaspur, which it has bagged five times since 1998; and Amritsar, where it has lost in the last three elections.

The remaining 10 seats had traditionally been contested by the SAD, the BJP’s oldest ally which broke up with it in 2020 over the farmers’ movement against the now-repealed three central farm laws.

State BJP president Sunil Jakhar, who has complained to the Election Commission (EC) about his party candidates being allegedly denied their right to campaign, says this election is a stepping stone to the 2027 Assembly polls. “The party will vastly improve its vote share this time and sweep the 2027 elections,” he claims.

Jakhar’s hope is echoed by a section of the trading community across the Malwa region, especially in the constituencies like Ludhiana, Bathinda, Sangrur and Patiala.

A group of men having tea at the the popular Giani chai stall in Bathinda makes no bones about their support for the BJP. “Modi saab has done wonders for the country, the world respects us,” says Bharat Jindal, a trader. Another one cites the “fear factor” in the city.

“Harjinder Singh Mela was killed in broad daylight while sitting outside his kulcha shop in October last year, but the killers are still at large. We hear of extortion calls. There are industries that are quietly shifting to Bahadurgarh in Haryana. We need Modi ji to prevent the situation from sliding further.”

The traders also flag the rise of Amritpal Singh, who despite being in a jail in Assam under the National Security Act (NSA) is contesting the polls as an Independent candidate from the Khadoor Sahib constituency in the Majha border belt. “Mahaul kharaab ho raha hai,” says Rajiv Bajaj, a businessman.

At Barnala, which saw the first-of-its-kind standoff between a farm union and traders earlier this month, Sunil Bansal, who runs a bustling tire dealership, claims 85% of the voters in the town were rallying behind “Modi ji.” This is largely due to the farmer agitation continuing at the Shambhu border between Punjab and Haryana for three months now, he says. “It’s increasing our freight charges. A trip to Delhi now takes longer because we can’t go through Shambhu,” says Bansal, adding that he had supported the farmers during their 2020 stir. “I had then even visited Singhu, but ever since the repeal of the three laws they have begun flexing their muscle. We need Modi.”

The consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya has also contributed to the BJP’s popularity in some pockets. “I know people who had never voted for BJP planning to vote for it only because of the Temple,” says Manav Goyal, a dealer in JCB spare parts on the Barnala-Sirsa road.

The BJP candidates are hoping that the Temple issue would swing the migrant votes in their favor as well. According to the 2011 census, Hindus make up 38.15% of the state’s population, and with a large number of migrants coming to Punjab from various heartland states, this number is estimated to have risen.

A BJP supporter holds up a model of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, at PM Modi’s Patiala public meeting. (PTI)

Punjab is however a Sikh majority state, with the community accounting for over 57% of its population. “Punjab does not vote along religious lines, and Punjabi Hindus have never done that,” says Pramod Kumar, the founder of the think tank, Institute for Development and Communication. Paramjit Judge, a noted sociologist currently with the Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, agrees, pointing out how the SAD, founded as a party for the Sikhs in 1920, would never have gone out of power if Sikhs had voted along religious lines.

At Durgiana Mandir in Amritsar, where the BJP has fielded former ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu, Rajesh Pathak, who works in the temple, rues that not everyone here was “grateful” for the Temple. “I have seen that even among our temple workers, half won’t vote for the BJP. Back home in Varanasi, everyone has put their finger on the lotus (BJP’s symbol).”

But Raj Verma, a trader and regular temple-goer, strikes a discordant note on the question whether the Temple has made a difference. “No, why is Modi claiming Ram ji? BJP is too ‘kattar‘ (rigid) for us, we respect diversity. As long as they (BJP and SAD) had an alliance, they could win, not any longer,” he says.

At the posh RB Estate on the outskirts of Amritsar, where a rally for Akali candidate Anil Joshi sees many Hindu traders in attendance, P Kapoor says, “We want development, not religion. I am a Hindu Khatri, but I visit Sheedaan da gurdwara as do most traders here. We want peace, not religious divisions.”

Significantly, PM Modi, who held a rally in Patiala Thursday amid farmers’ protests, chose to focus on the Sikh history, the connection of one of the first five baptised Sikhs to Dwarka, and the Veer Bal Diwas that he has instituted to mark the martyrdom of Guru Gobind Singh’s four sons.

However, the mistrust against the BJP remains, especially in the rural belts of the state. A professor of the Punjabi University, Patiala, Lakhwinder Singh, says it is due to the “uncharitable remarks PM Modi made about farmers in Parliament during the 2020 agitation”. “The name-calling that followed, dubbing them as ‘Andoleejeevi’, and worse, as ‘Khalistanis’, continues to rankle,” he says.

In the countryside, several people allege how “social media handles related to the BJP continue to spread hatred against Sikhs”. “They even call for a repeat of the 1984 pogrom. How can we trust them?” say some youths near the Hoshiarpur Government College.

But there are a few voices even in villages that favour Modi. In Sehna village near Barnala, Gurmel Singh, who owns 1.5 acre land and runs a shop, says he cannot understand why farm leaders are angry with the PM. “Everyone benefits from the PM Kisan Samman-Nidhi scheme; even I receive Rs 6,000 in my account every year. If these unions don’t like the PM, they should say no to this scheme.”

Sunil Singla, who is the BJP’s Bathinda office in-charge, says the party is seeing “green shoots of its recovery in villages”. “Until 2020, when we separated from the Akalis, we never stepped into the countryside because Badal saab told us he would manage. Now we realise it was a clever ploy to prevent us from spreading our wings.”

The BJP is relying on both technology and workers to woo voters. Its well-appointed Bathinda office hosts a call centre of 30 people whose only job is to call voters, apprise them of the central schemes, and take their feedback. Each of the parliamentary seats has one such call centre that works through the year.

Some BJP veterans are wary of the changing face of the state party leadership – from grassroots leaders with the RSS background to high-profile defectors, largely from the Congress. The BJP top brass is seeking to quell these insecurities by pointing out how these crossovers are helping the party to expand its base beyond the urban belts.

Singla exudes confidence that the BJP’s vote share would cross into double digits in the polls. All 13 seats will vote in the seventh and final phase on June 1. “This is just the beginning. We are working very hard. Wait for 2027,” he says.

Some party leaders cite the Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll results in 2023 where the BJP garnered a 15% vote share although the seat was won by the then AAP candidate Sushil Kumar Rinku, who is now contesting on the BJP’s ticket.

In the 2019 polls, when the BJP and the SAD had fought together, they had won two seats each, with the Congress and the AAP winning eight and one respectively.