Why at the heart of PM Modi’s Tamil Nadu push is Coimbatore — town with which BJP has a past

Since then, the BJP has invoked the Coimbatore blasts to make a space for itself among the Hindu voters in Tamil Nadu, a state where regional, sub-national sentiments hold a bigger sway. Modi’s Monday road show ended at one of the sites of the blasts, where the PM stopped to pay homage to the victims.

Coimbatore, with its large textile industry, is also home to many migrants from the North, giving the BJP a ripe base. The party won the next two elections held after the blasts from here, in 1998 and 1999. Other parties too are known to actively employ Hindi-speaking campaigners and announcers in the constituency.

Now, the buzz in Tamil Nadu is that the BJP is planning to take its Coimbatore push one step further by fielding from here its firebrand state chief K Annamalai (who reportedly is not too keen to contest).

This, in turn, has made the Opposition rework its plans, with the DMK deciding to contest the Coimbatore Lok Sabha seat after a gap of 10 years, during which time its Left allies fought from the constituency. On Wednesday, the DMK – which last won the seat in 1996 – announced former AIADMK leader and Coimbatore Mayor Ganapathi Rajkumar as its candidate for the seat.

In the absence of the DMK, Coimbatore is seen as more of an AIADMK stronghold, with the BJP (an ally of the AIADMK till recently) continuing to command support. AIADMK chief E Palaniswami, who belongs to Salem district, also has significant influence here.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK had won Coimbatore with a notable margin. While in 2019, the Left had wrested it by a margin of 1.7 lakh votes, with the BJP coming second, the AIADMK had swung back in 2021.

In that year’s Assembly elections, the AIADMK and allies had secured all the segments under the Coimbatore Lok Sabha seat, even as the DMK had returned to power with a huge majority.

The DMK, though, will be looking at the urban local body elections of 2022, where it performed well. This time, it also has the support of Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam, which came third in 2019 in Coimbatore, getting 1.44 lakh votes.

At the same time, the DMK is missing its prominent local leader V Senthil Balaji, who is under arrest and had to step down as minister. It is unclear how this will play out in western Tamil Nadu, or Kongu Nadu, which includes Coimbatore.

Under Stalin, the DMK has been focusing on western Tamil Nadu, as part of a concerted effort to make inroads into regions traditionally dominated by its rivals. In Coimbatore, its hope is to rally the Muslim population, traditionally supporters of the DMK and Left, behind it, while the Hindu and North Indian votes may get split between the AIADMK and BJP.

A senior DMK leader said they expect a sweep in the Lok Sabha polls again, but that Coimbatore may pose a challenge and they do not underestimate the BJP. “They are making a significant push, evident from Modi’s roadshow,” the leader said.

Past results

In Lok Sabha elections, the Left has won the Coimbatore seat 7 times (1957, 1967, 1971, 1977, 2004, 2009, 2019), Congress 5 times (1951-52, 1962, 1984, 1989, 1991), the DMK twice (1980, 1996); the BJP twice (1998, 1999), and AIADMK once (2014).

Apart from winning the seat twice, the BJP has been second-placed three times – in 2019, 2014 and 2004.

The BJP has only won one other Lok Sabha seat in Tamil Nadu apart from Coimbatore, Kanniyakumari, in 2014.

Currently, of the Assembly segments falling under the constituency, 5 are held by the AIADMK and 1 by the BJP.