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With the political scene heating up ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the ruling BJP seems to be facing a turbulent situation in the North-East, one of the brightest feathers in its cap as the party pulled off a series of stunning electoral wins to storm to power in Assam, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur besides emerging as a significant player in Nagaland and other states in the region since 2014.
However, after several relatively peaceful years, the BJP leadership is now forced to tackle discontent in its state units in the region, even as it is grappling with multiple challenges including strained ties with allies, inter-state problems, ethnic and communal violence, and other law and order issues.
The continuing violence in Manipur, roiled by ethnic violence since early May, has led to the Christian community in the North-East “distance” from the BJP — a development that may hurt the party’s bid to retain its tally of 19 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats from the region in the 2024 polls, party sources said. Christians account for a significant percentage of voters in the region.
In Assam, where the saffron party led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has secured its dominant position in the electoral space, the state unit is caught in internal rifts with discontent brewing among the party veterans against the new leadership. Senior party leader and ex-Union minister Rajen Gohain, who came out to express his dissatisfaction against the style of functioning of the state leadership, stepped down as the Assam Food and Civil Supplies Corporation Ltd chairman last week. He was unhappy about the impact of the recently-concluded delimitation exercise on his Nowgong constituency. Subsequently, a few BJP leaders, including MLA Rama Kant Dewri, spoke out openly against “some people who are deviating from the core values of the BJP”
Feeling “betrayed” by the state leadership, Gohain met Union Home Minister Amit Shah to apprise him of the situation. Gohain told reporters in the national capital Friday: “I met Amit Shah and told him about my grievances, he listened to me nicely. I did not go asking for a ticket and it was not my intention. We had a long and fruitful conversation, he (Shah) has been for the Sanghatan for long, so he knows what I am talking about.” He however added that he would not withdraw his resignation from the corporation.
While the dominant faction in the Assam BJP maintains that “it is business as usual”, sources said the increasing disquiet in the state unit may lead to the defection of a few leaders to the main Opposition Congress. “Because delimitation process has given them a good reason to come out publicly to express their unhappiness that has been simmering for a while. There has been a lot of disgruntlement among the original lot of leaders against the new leadership, which mainly involves those who joined the BJP from other parties,” said a BJP leader.
The Assam BJP leadership, however, appears to be taking measures not to let the issue boil over. Earlier this week, state BJP chief Bhabesh Kalita suspended a party member Somendra Nath Deka who had held a protest against Gohain in Guwahati.
When asked about the tussle between “old guard and new leadership”, BJP national vice-president in charge of Assam, Baijayant Panda, told The Indian Express: “Every BJP worker has a role to take the party forward. There is no old or new.” A meeting of the state party unit’s core committee to discuss various issues is slated for Monday, which will be attended by Panda.
In the neighbouring Tripura state also, the BJP faces intense tussle between the “old and new guards”, with party leaders associated with ex-CM Biplab Kumar Deb charging that CM Manik Saha – who had switched to the BJP from the Congress in 2016 – has been ignoring and sidelining the “original party leaders”. A section of BJP leaders had attributed the party’s wafer-thin majority and its drop in vote share in the February 2023 Assembly polls to the growing differences between the two groups. Deb would campaign for the September 5 bypolls though, as the party leadership had chosen the two candidates — Taffajal Hossain for Boxanagar and Bindu Debnath for Dhanpur — while taking into account his group’s concerns, sources said.
Another worry for the BJP has cropped up due to its strained ties with some of its key allies in the region. In Mizoram, the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) is part of the BJP-led NDA besides being a constituent of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). The MNF however chose to support the no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition against the Narendra Modi-led government in the monsoon session of Parliament. The MNF has maintained that the BJP has not handled the Manipur crisis properly.
The Mizoram Assembly, which had earlier passed a resolution against the BJP’s Uniform Civil Code (UCC) proposal, adopted a resolution this week, opposing the Forest (Conservation) Amendment Act, 2023 enacted by Parliament recently.
The Naga People’s Front (NPF), which has its presence in Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, is also upset with the BJP. “There is a lot of uneasiness… We wish that the BJP government take the right steps. Now that elections are coming up, the BJP leadership should take proactive steps to keep the alliance intact,” Lorho S. Pfoze, NPF MP, told The Indian Express. On whether his party would sever ties with the NDA ahead of the 2024 elections, he said: “The party will take a view on it.”
A source working in the region for the BJP said, “The BJP’s alliance partners in the North-East are increasingly taking divergent positions and the only relief for the party is that these parties are arch rivals of the Congress. But many parties including MNF do not want to be seen in the same frame with the BJP because of their reliance on the Christian tribal votes, especially in the wake of the Manipur violence. Christian groups are forcing parties like NPF and NDPP to turn against the BJP.”
Sources said, “The region, which has seen peace and prosperity for the last more than five years, has now become a trouble zone. Be it the internal party issues, inter-state issues, ethnic or communal violence, discord between security forces and public, drug menace… the region has become a turbulent place.”
BJP sources also pointed out that the talks to resolve various rows simmering for years are not resulting in their resolution. “There is not much progress in the Naga peace talks — discussions are on but no permanent solution has been found yet. In Arunachal Pradesh, there is resentment over the influx of Chakmas, people want them to be relocated while Chakmas claim they are Indian citizens — but that is a relatively minor issue. There is Hindu-Muslim conflict, conversion charges, tension between Bengalis and tribals in Tripura, drug menace, poppy plantation issue … the list is long,” said a party leader.
But there have been bright spots too, with sources claiming that peace agreements have been hammered out with several insurgent groups barring the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA). The Centre has signed the Bodoland Territorial Region Accord with the Bodo outfits and the Assam government in 2020. “The Bru refugee issue pending for over two decades was settled in 2020 with an agreement signed between the Central government, Tripura and Mizoram. The Bru community people were not forced to go back to Mizoram, but were allowed to settle in Tripura permanently. There is no Mizoram-Tripura conflict now,” added the leader.
