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Ever since the Opposition unity meeting held in Patna last month, the Janata Dal (United) has been looking for an alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh and is eyeing the two Lok Sabha seats of Phulpur and Pratapgarh in east UP. The party calculates that if the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar contests the Lok Sabha election from Phulpur it will bring together the votes of the Kurmi and Yadav, both categorised as Other Backward Classes (OBCs), in favour of the Opposition alliance against the BJP.
The JD(U) itself is not an established force in UP, having received 0.01% votes in the 2019 general elections. But Nitish Kumar, who is believed to have prime ministerial ambitions, is working to bring the Opposition together against the BJP and may look for a seat outside Bihar. Moreover, Phulpur carries a lot of symbolism as it is the constituency represented in the past by former PMs Jawaharlal Nehru and V P Singh. It is also the seat from where socialist ideologue Ram Manohar Lohia fought elections. “Nitish ji is a supporter of the ideology of Ram Manohar Lohia who contested elections from Phulpur in 1962. Hence, the OBC-dominated Phulpur is an ideal seat for him,” said a party leader.
A senior JD(U) leader said a large number of non-Yadav OBCs in UP who were earlier with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had drifted to the BJP in the past 10 years. “From the 2022 Assembly elections, SP president Akhilesh Yadav started efforts to bring OBCs together but did not achieve much success in the Assembly polls. If Nitish Kumar contests from Phulpur, he could bring Kurmi and Yadav voters together and form an effective alliance to defeat the BJP.”
Nitish Kumar belongs to the Kurmi caste, whose vote is decisive in several constituencies in eastern and central UP. “An alliance between JD(U) and the SP is almost certain. When seat-sharing discussions begin, the JD(U) will speak to the SP leadership to leave two seats of Phulpur and Pratapgarh for it. That will consolidate Kurmi voters in support of the Opposition alliance,” said the leader, according to whom Kurmis and Yadavs are present in almost equal numbers in several constituencies of UP.
JD(U) chief national spokesperson K C Tyagi told The Indian Express, “There is pressure on Nitish ji from party workers to contest the Lok Sabha election. But Nitish ji has so far not made up his mind on any particular seat to contest from. As far as Phulpur is concerned, nothing will be decided without involving the SP and Akhilesh Yadav.” Tyagi said the JD(U) and the SP could form a strong alliance against the BJP in UP.
SP chief spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said, “So far, Opposition parties, including the JD(U) and the SP, have taken an in-principle decision to come together to defeat the BJP. But nothing has been finalised about an alliance in UP.”
Kurmis are electorally significant in eastern and central UP districts such as Mirzapur, Varanasi, Chandauli, Prayagraj, Kaushambi, Pratapgarh, Fatehpur, Basti, Gonda, Bahraich, Bhadohi, and Sonbhadra.
While Pratapgarh is dominated by Brahmins and Thakurs, Patels (Kurmi) are the third-largest bloc of voters. Kurmis are dominant in neighbouring Prayagraj too. The current MP of Phulpur, Keshari Devi Patel of the BJP, is also a Kurmi. Popular Kurmi leader and Apna Dal founder Sonelal Patel too had contested the elections here in 2004 when Atiq Ahmed won as the SP candidate. Muslims, Yadavs, and other OBCs such as Mauryas, Nishads, and Rajbhars too are in significant numbers in Phulpur.
At the JD(U) national executive meeting in Patna last year, the party’s UP leaders proposed for the first time that Nitish Kumar should contest the Lok Sabha election from the state. “The UP unit suggested that Nitish ji should contest any of the three seats of Mirzapur, Phulpur, or Ambedkar Nagar. We have not received any response yet from the central leadership, but we have pitched for Nitish Kumar’s candidature from UP. The party has already started its organisational expansion in the form of a membership drive, to prepare itself for contesting in alliance with the SP,” said a state JD(U) leader.
Ever since then, the talks of the alliance have been in the air. After Nitish met with Akhilesh last year, a banner surfaced outside the SP office in Lucknow that had pictures of Nitish and Akhilesh side by side, with the slogan: “UP + Bihar = Gayi Modi Sarkar.”
