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In the first election being held in the reconstituted Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat, which brings large parts of Jammu province into the Kashmir constituency, the clincher is expected to be the sharpened ethnic divide between the Gujjars and Paharis.
The BJP, whose government at the Centre met a long-standing demand of the Pahari community in giving them ST status – which has brought them in conflict with the Gujjars – is itself not in the contest. However, the BJP has been campaigning asking voters in Poonch-Rajouri (large parts of which fall under the constituency now) to vote for a “like-minded” party and not the Kashmir-centric National Conference (NC) or the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
A senior Pahari leader, Murtaza Khan, recently told the BJP not to “compel” Paharis to vote for any particular party, when it was itself not contesting, and went on to announce support for his former party, the PDP. A senior BJP leader then lashed out against the Paharis, with his allusion to the post-Partition violence in the area seen as a warning to them not to vote for the NC and PDP. While the BJP quickly expelled him, the bad taste lingers.
It is the PDP which has the most at stake in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat as its candidate here is its chief Mehbooba Mufti. Before delimitation, Anantnag used to be the PDP’s turf. An alliance with the NC, which the PDP was hoping for, also didn’t fructify.
The NC candidate, in fact, is giving Mufti a tough contest as he is a much-respected Gujjar spiritual leader, Mian Altaf. This has made the Pahari vote even more crucial for Mufti, a Kashmiri.
The other candidates in the constituency include the J&K Apni Party’s Zaffar Manhas, a Pahari from Kashmir’s Shopian district, who has got the backing of Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, and Advocate Mohammad Saleem Parray, a Kashmiri belonging to Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party.
The BJP’s mention of “like-minded” outfits is being read as a call for vote for these two parties, with local leaders openly supporting Manhas.
Of the Assembly segments falling under the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, only one, Kokernag, is reserved for Scheduled Tribes. While the 11 constituencies falling under Kashmir province are predominantly inhabited by non-ST Kashmiri Muslims, the six in Rajouri and Poonch districts have a large number of Gujjars, Bakerwals and Paharis. The Paharis form more than half of the electorate (4 lakh of the total 7.35 lakh) on the Jammu side. However, the voters on the Kashmir side outnumber those in Jammu province by nearly 3 lakh.
A senior Gujjar official in the UT administration said that Gujjars, Kashmiris and Paharis all apprehend that they will lose their identity and political influence if a candidate from the other group got elected.
According to Shafiq Mir, former chairman of the Buffliaz Block Development Council in Poonch, due to the BJP’s absence, the Paharis are likely to go back to the parties they traditionally voted for, including the NC and PDP.
A prominent Gujjar political analyst said that if the NC’s Gujjar supporters stand with Mian Altaf, he stands a good chance of victory as he will also get the Kashmiri vote.
On Tuesday, speaking in Jammu and Rajouri, Mufti was quoted by PTI as saying that “an atmosphere of fear” had been created in Rajouri. Without naming any party, the PDP chief said: “What I observed after meeting various delegations is that one community (Gujjars) is afraid of ‘fatwa’ politics, and the other (Pahari) community fears being harassed at the hands of the administration if it openly comes out in support of the PDP.”
In an apparent reference to the NC’s Altaf, Mufti added: “It is wrong to play ‘Peer-Mureed (spiritual leader-disciple)’, which is a noble relationship, not driven by vote bank politics… Religion should not be brought into politics.”
The former chief minister said: “The BJP knows very well that the parties it is backing will lose their deposit in Kashmir. Their only aim is to keep Mehbooba away from Parliament.”
