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Journalism of Courage
It is the last stretch of canvassing in Meghalaya before the February 27 Assembly polls. To give a final push to the BJP’s campaign, Union Home Minister Amit Shah will visit the state Thursday, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit scheduled for next week. Both BJP leaders will concentrate their campaigns in Tura – the seat of power for incumbent Chief Minister and National People’s Party (NPP) president Conrad Sangma, as well as of ex-CM Mukul Sangma, who has now switched from the Congress to the TMC.
Starting Thursday, Shah will concentrate his entire two-day campaign in this remote hill district, while Modi will arrive in Meghalaya on February 24 and split his time between a rally in Tura and a roadshow in Shillong city, where the BJP hopes to secure a large vote share.
With its top leaders visiting the Sangma stronghold and home of the Garo tribe, the BJP’s message is clear – despite an alliance with the NPP in government for the past 5 years, the BJP is taking no prisoners. The Garo Hills have 24 Assembly seats. With very little presence in a predominantly Christian state, the BJP’s attempt is not only to increase its number of seats and vote share, but also to install its own CM.
Insiders say the party is confident of winning 6-7 seats. In the event of a particularly favourable election, the BJP sees these numbers going up to 15, as it believes it has cornered around 9.6 per cent of the state’s vote share. “If we win 15 seats, we will have our own CM. Conrad Sangma became CM after having won 18 seats in 2018,” says a party insider.
For this, the BJP is relying on three factors – consolidating the Hindu (non-local) vote in constituencies where the latter live in large numbers, take advantage of the sparring between the regional parties, which they believe will split the non-BJP vote, and use the plank of development to entice non-BJP voters.
The BJP feels it is also in a stronger position this year than ever before. In the last Assembly elections, held in 2018, it had fielded candidates in 47 of the 60 seats – because it could not find candidates to fill the rest — and won 2 seats. This year, it has fielded candidates in all 60.
“This election is very different for us from the last one. Even in the seats we fought, many of our candidates did not manage to get more than 200-300 votes. The perception then was that the BJP is an anti-Christian party. The beef ban issue had cost us a lot too. We couldn’t even canvass openly, as our candidates were facing real threats. But the atmosphere this time is very different. Those issues no longer exist. We started working on the Meghalaya elections in September last year, and when we opened up our party membership, we reached a lakh within a month, which was a promising sign,” says a BJP election committee member.
BJP MLA from Pynthorumkhrah Assembly constituency and former health minister in the NPP-UDP-PDF-HSPDP-BJP government, A L Hek, agrees that there is a “vast difference in the two elections”. “For the first time in Meghalaya’s history, the BJP has fielded candidates on all seats. It has a very high potential in 30 seats. We have fielded strong candidates, while the BJP’s acceptability in Meghalaya is a lot higher now. If the BJP was anti-Christian then, why would PM Modi go to Vatican city, meet the Pope and invite him to India? As far as the beef ban is concerned, there was no ban in Meghalaya – not a single shop in the state was barred from selling beef. The corruption in the NPP-led government is very high and we have openly spoken about this,” said Hek, speaking to The Indian Express, brushing aside the fact that he was a member of the government he is now accusing of corruption.
The BJP’s election plank has been of development and employment in a state with little of either. These, along with corruption, have been the themes in speeches of Union minister and ex-Assam CM Sarbananda Sonowal, who campaigned in Meghalaya recently. He also hinted at the Sangma families’ “nepotism”, both of which have a number of members in the fray.
“BJP respects the views of the tribal community, the people of Meghalaya. BJP’s crusade against corruption and nepotism in national politics is well known. We want to assure the people of Meghalaya that the BJP government will ensure that the twin problem of corruption and nepotism will be dealt with… BJP is committed to the overall growth of the state. With its majestic natural beauty, rich mineral resources, and strong human resource pool, Meghalaya offers a lot of opportunities to bring business, build capacity and boost prosperity,” said Sonowal.
But BJP’s trump card remains the Hindu vote, concentrated in Shillong and the constituencies that border Assam – Ampatty, Mahendraganj, Mendipathar, Dalu, Phulbari, Tikrikilla, Bajengdoba, Salmanpara, Raksamgiri, Zirang and north and south Tura are some of these constituencies.
“In 20 seats – we have anywhere between 10-37 per cent vote share. We are strong in Shillong where a large non-local population lives, and is in constant fear of attacks by tribals, which happens sporadically. Mukul Sangma remained in power on the basis of support from this population, guaranteeing them security, and a percentage of the tribal votes. The BJP can do that as well,” says a BJP leader. The BJP’s calculation includes 52 per cent Hindu votes in South Shillong (where it has a sitting MLA), 42 per cent Hindu votes in West Shillong, 28 per cent in East Shillong and 18-22 per cent in Pynthorumkhrah of Shillong district.
“We will corner these votes without question. But the NPP and TMC have the same vote bank – and the contest between the two is likely to split their votes, in which case we believe that we can pull ahead. Both the triangular fights in most constituencies, and the four-cornered fight in some (where Meghalaya’s oldest party, the UDP, is contesting) works to our advantage,” says a BJP leader.
