Maratha quota row, seat-sharing divisions: For BJP, why Marathwada is a tricky terrain

The Marathwada region has eight Lok Sabha seats and 48 Assembly segments under them. With four sitting MPs, the BJP feels it has more bargaining chips than its allies Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, which has two MPs, and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that has no MPs from the region but is eyeing Parbhani. The other two seats are held by the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the AIMIM.

The BJP currently holds Beed, Jalna, Nanded and Latur while the Sena has MPs in Parbhani and Hingoli. The Sena MP of Dharashiv sided with Uddhav when the party split in July 2022.

The BJP’s assertion in Marathwada also stems from its strong base in the Assembly segments of the region. In 2019, the BJP won 18 Assembly seats while the undivided Shiv Sena won 12. The Congress and the NCP, which fought the polls in alliance, won seven and 14 seats, respectively.

The Parbhani Lok Sabha seat is likely to become the bone of contention in seat-sharing between the ruling “Mahayuti” alliance’s constituents as all three parties have reportedly staked a claim on it. The Sena is reportedly also keen on contesting Sambhajinagar (earlier Aurangabad) and Dharashiv (earlier Osmanabad), a seat which the BJP is unwilling to let go.

Mahayuti leaders, meanwhile, are not mincing words in voicing their aspirations. NCP Ajit Pawar leader Chhagan Bhujbal, who has hit the headlines with his stance on the Maratha quota issue, said his party was a key component of the ruling alliance and expected to be given the same number of seats as the Shinde Sena, whose MP Gajanan Kirtikar said his party would not settle for anything less than 20 Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP, on the other hand, said the winnability factor would be taken into account while deciding on seat-sharing. “Winnability will be the main criterion. We will ensure no injustice is done to allies,” said state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule.

BJP insiders said the party might concede Parbhani to Ajit Pawar and keep Dharashiv while a decision on Sambhajinagar would be taken based on the strength of the Shiv Sena’s candidate.

The Maratha jigsaw

Apart from hurdles in seat-sharing talks, Jarange-Patil’s call to continue his agitation till the state government implements the draft notification on granting Kunbi certificates to members of the Maratha community members and their “sage soyare (blood relatives)” is also posing a challenge to the ruling alliance.

Jarange-Patil on Saturday called for a “rasta roko” and has said his protest will not stop till the draft notification is implemented. Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) chief Prakash Ambedkar has also urged people to support the agitation.

However, Mahayuti insiders question Jarange-Patil’s motive in keeping the issue simmering despite Eknath Shinde already announcing a 10% quota for the community. “While individuals have a right to protest in a democracy, they should ensure it does not inconvenience people,” Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis said.

BJP leaders are also keeping a keen eye on the water situation in the region, which is considered to be drought-prone. “The Lok Sabha elections will be held in the summer months of April or May and a water crisis could trigger anger against the government. Whether we can mitigate it with the Modi factor will be our biggest challenge,” a senior Marathwada-based BJP functionary said on the condition of anonymity.

However, Bawankule sounded optimistic and said the Mahayuti would win all eight seats in the region. “People will vote for Modi. The state government had granted a Rs 45,000-crore package for Marathwada last year,” he said.