The Manipur question should bother the govt; state needs to be seen, heard

In April 1985 came the initially innocuous Shah Bano verdict. The court gave relief of a paltry sum of Rs 25 a month to a 62-year-old Muslim woman, divorced after 45 years of marriage by her husband by pronouncing talaq. The protests among the Muslim community led then PM Rajiv Gandhi to go in for a law to undo the judgment, and then, to placate the Hindu community irate over this, to open the locks enabling worship at the disputed Babri Masjid site.

This changed the trajectory of Indian politics over the 30 years that followed, leading to the rise and rise of the BJP.

The court directive that was the immediate trigger for the Manipur violence asked the state government to consider giving Scheduled Tribe status to the Meitei community in the state. The Kuki tribal community protested, and the clashes between them since have left around 150 people dead, several houses burnt, with the state and Central governments unable to bring the situation under control even three months later. A video of Kuki tribal women paraded naked and sexually assaulted is something the country will take a long time to live down.

The judgment is now on hold, while the government said on Thursday that it has decided to hand over the probe into the case to the CBI, and to hold the trial outside Manipur.

Both these steps, read between the lines, betray a lack of confidence by the Modi government in the state administration run by its own BJP in Manipur. And yet the Centre has fought shy of sacking Chief Minister N Biren Singh, as demanded by many so as to ensure accountability, particularly after he tried to justify the delay in taking action by saying that “over 6,000 FIRs” had been filed across the state.

Many feel the conflagration could have been defused had the Centre sent him packing, or resorted to President’s rule, though Article 356 is a double-edged sword. Once you go down that route, there is no end to its use in other states – as seen in the past. The trouble is that Biren Singh has become a hero to his Meitei community, and the situation, by design or by default, is sharply polarised along Meitei-Kuki lines today, and could benefit the BJP politically in Manipur, with its ripple effects felt in other states like Assam and Tripura, where faultlines exist. (The three states account for 18 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the Northeast.)

It has mystified many as to why Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose to keep mum on Manipur for nearly three months, till the video of the sexual assault emerged. One of the main lines of attack by the BJP against his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, was that he kept “mum” as Sonia Gandhi led the show. A few sentences by Modi, even a brief appeal for peace, might have brought down the temperatures in Manipur, his critics say.

The newly formed 26-party Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A has made his silence a political stick to beat him with, not allowing Parliament to function till he speaks on the floor of the House.

Those close to the establishment forward several explanations for the PM’s silence, including that he does not act under pressure of the Opposition as that would make him come across as a weak leader.

The more cynical among them say that at the end of the day, as unfortunate as the Manipur situation may be, it is not likely to resonate in heartland India, and that the ruling party hopes to ride the storm.

However, what will worry the ruling dispensation is the continuation of the conflict even when G20 Summit comes around in September in Delhi. The European Parliament earlier called the violence in Manipur “unacceptable”.

The Opposition’s notice for a no-confidence motion against the Modi government – it has been accepted by the Lok Sabha Speaker, though a date for it is yet to be fixed – is essentially to compel the PM to speak in the House. Given the way the numbers are stacked in the Lok Sabha, there is no way the government is going to be defeated.

The more important issue at hand, however, is how to bring normalcy to Manipur, where faultlines have been deepened. And to impart a sense of reassurance to the Northeast. Given the long, unchecked spell of violence, many have begun to ask the question of whether the rest of India has abandoned them. As it is, tensions are spreading outwards, towards neighbouring states.

For decades, the Northeast was synonymous with insurgencies. It is only in recent years that relative political stability came to the region. Bordered by China, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan, and seen as a gateway to Southeast Asia, the region’s import for India’s national security cannot be emphasised enough.

Clearly, there is a need to strike a new note to bring sanity back to Manipur, and bring the state back from the brink. Ultimately, it is political activity that restores normalcy in any conflict situation. But the elected MLAs of the state have become virtually invisible. A delegation of Opposition parties is now all set to go to Imphal to speak to both sides.

If only it had been an all-party delegation from Delhi headed to Imphal. If nothing else, it might have signalled that the rest of India does care. In the end, the way forward has to happen on the ground in Manipur, by politicians and stakeholders who have stakes in the state’s future and are aware of the sensitivities of its past. That needs good politics and good governance, not just officers from New Delhi being parachuted to Imphal.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections. Her book, How Prime Ministers Decide, published by Aleph Book Company, hits the stands on August 3)