Karnataka exit polls today: How were BJP, Congress and JD(S) placed in 2018?

Within a year, the tables were reversed, as the Congress-JD(S) lost 17 of their MLAs, who resigned from the Assembly — after being holed up in a resort in Mumbai leading up to it — and switched sides to the BJP. Karnataka BJP stalwart BS Yediyurappa became the Chief Minister but resigned on July 26, 2021. He was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai, who like Yediyurappa hails from the Lingayat community.

But how did the exit polls in 2018 predict the outcome?

Six out of eight major exit polls aired by six national television channels and one regional channel predicted that the BJP would get the largest number of seats in the new Assembly. But seven of these predicted a Hung assembly, with neither the BJP nor the Congress getting to the simple majority mark of 112 seats. All these polls suggested that the JD(S) would be kingmaker, with the party predicted to get between 20 and 40 seats.

The ABP-C Voter, NewsX-CNX, Republic-Jan ki Baat and News Nation exit polls predicted the BJP would be the largest party in the assembly. A similar prediction was made by the regional Dighvijay-Vijayawani survey.

Times Now broadcast two exit polls. One, Times Now-VMR, gave the Congress a narrow lead; the other, Times Now-Today’s Chanakya, gave the BJP a clear majority. The India Today-Axis exit poll said the Congress would be the single largest party.

The ABP-C Voter survey predicted 104-116 seats for the BJP, followed by 83-94 for the Congress, and 20-29 for the JD(S). NewsX-CNX predicted 102-110 seats for the BJP, 72-78 for the Congress, 35-39 for the JD (S), and 3-5 for others. The Republic-Jan ki Baat poll said the BJP would get 104, Congress 78, JD(S) 37, and others 3.

The Times Now-Chanakya poll said the BJP would get 120 seats. This was the only poll that predicted a majority for any party. The Congress, Times Now-Chanakya said, would get 73, JD(S) 26, and others 3. According to Times Now-VMR, however, the Congress will get 97 seats, and the BJP 94. The JD(S) will get 28, and others 3, it predicted.

The News Nation poll predicted 99-108 for the BJP, 75-84 for the Congress, 31-40 for the JD(S), and 3-7 for others. The Karnataka-based Dighvijay-Vijayawani gave 103-107 seats to the BJP, 76-80 to the Congress, 31-35 to the JD(S), and 4-8 to others.
The India Today-Axis poll was the only one to predict victory for the Congress. The ruling party will get between 106 and 118 seats, it said, followed by the BJP with 79-92, JD(S) with 22-30, and others with 1-4.

In 2013, the Congress had won 122 seats. The BJP and the JD(S) got 40 seats each, while Yediyurappa’s then Karnataka Jantha Paksha got 6 seats and B Sriramulu’s Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party bagged 4.

This time around, all three major parties in the fray have put up a spirited campaign leading up to voting day, with charged rhetoric between the BJP and the Congress towards the end of campaigning. The BJP has been facing anti-incumbency, allegations of corruption, the headwinds of the rising cost of living, and the pressure of the exit of a few leaders from the party’s main caste base Lingayats.

A strong campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, primarily using the development message, faux pas by the Congress, and Hindutva card was witnessed in the final stages of the canvassing.

Meanwhile, the Congress unveiled a set of five guarantees directed mainly at the poor, with the intent of tapping into the perceived widespread anger over the rising cost of living, including the price of cooking gas and fuel.

The JD(S), which is the main challenger to the Congress in south Karnataka and has a sporadic presence in other parts of the state, made its own set of promises such as the supply of five free LPG cylinders per year and the waiver of loans by self-help groups for women.