How UP caste dynamics explain BJP’s ministerial picks from the state

Being the second-largest Dalit subgroup after Jatavs, Pasis — who make up 16% of the Dalit population — are among the most electorally influential communities in the state. They play an especially significant role in the Awadh region of Uttar Pradesh: Faizabad, Lucknow, neighbouring Barabanki, Hardoi, Sitapur, Lakhimpur Kheri, Unnao, Rae Bareli, and Pratapgarh. With Pasis backing it, the INDIA alliance either won several seats in this region — Faizabad, Barabanki, Sitapur, Kheri, Pratapgarh, and Rae Bareli — or was able to reduce the victory margins of sitting BJP MPs in Lucknow, Hardoi, and Unnao. Lucknow MP and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s margin dropped from 3.7 lakh votes to 1.35 lakh. In Hardoi, Jai Prakash Rawat’s win margin came down from 1.32 lakh votes to 27,000. In Unnao, incumbent MP Sakshi Maharaj’s margin dropped from 4 lakh to 35,000 votes.

Given the importance of Pasis, the BJP is projected Kamlesh Paswan, whose brother Vimlesh is the Bansgaon MLA, as one of its prominent Pasi faces.

To keep its Kurmi support base content, the party has retained Maharajganj MP Pankaj Chaudhary, a seven-term parliamentarian, and ally Apna Dal (Soneylal) leader Anupriya Patel in the Union Council of Ministers. While Chaudhary is an MoS in the Ministry of Finance, Patel has been appointed Mos in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, and the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers. Lodhi community (OBC) leader B L Verma has also been retained. He has been given the portfolios of MoS in the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution; and the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment.

The Kurmi community is the second-largest OBC group in UP after Yadavs. This election, non-Yadav OBC votes have shifted towards the INDIA alliance. Kurmis play a significant role in seats such as Gonda, Barabanki, Basti, Maharajganj, Mirzapur, Varanasi, Robertsganj, Kushinagar, and Shravasti.

Apart from Pasis and Kurmis, the BJP surprised many by inducting three-time Gonda MP Kirti Vardhan Singh — the MoS in the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change — in the government. Singh is a Thakur who belongs to the erstwhile royal family of Mankapur, Gonda. Kirti Vardhan comes from the same region as former Kaiserganj MP and strongman Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and by promoting him the BJP is likely trying to to develop a new Thakur face who can be a counterweight to Brij Bhushan who wields massive influence. Kirti Vardhan had defeated Brij Bhushan in 2014 to win Gonda for the first time. Though Brij Bhushan has not been completely sidelined, with his son Karan Bhushan taking over as Kaiserganj MP, with a top ministerial post in hand Kirti Vardhan is a figure whom the party leadership trusts.

But a senior state BJP leader explained the limits of such moves. “The party’s loss of seats in UP is because of many reasons. There has been a shift in votes but it was not universal across the state. Rather, the shift of the SC votes, especially Pasi, in the Awadh region or the Kurmi votes was seat-based. After all, we won an SC-reserved seat like Agra. Thus, one might see the selection of names in the Union Council of Ministers as the representation of a particular community but to see them as the face of the entire community in the state will be going a little far and only time would tell. To get the continued support of these communities, far more will have to be done rather than sending one particular leader to the Centre,” said the BJP functionary.