SP’s PDA (Pichde, Dalit, Alpasankhyak) formula vs NDA to see first test in Ghosi bypoll

The SP, which had won Ghosi in the 2022 Assembly election, with former party member Dara Singh Chauhan, now faces the challenge of retaining the seat with a new candidate and is expecting support from the INDIA bloc members.

The by-election to Mau district’s Ghosi seat was necessitated after Chauhan resigned as its MLA and joined the BJP last month. The BJP’s Vijay Kumar Rajbhar, an OBC leader who had finished as a runner-up in the 2022 polls, is in the race for the BJP ticket for the bypoll, but highly placed sources in the party said Chauhan may be fielded instead so that he can be inducted as a minister in next Cabinet expansion, if he wins.

The SP is waiting for the green light from party leadership to finalise its candidate and draw up a campaign strategy to retain the seat. “Party president Akhilesh Yadav is busy in the ongoing Monsoon Session of the Vidhan Sabha as Leader of the Opposition. Soon, he will consult the Mau district unit leaders and announce the candidate. The party will rope in leaders from various OBC groups from adjoining constituencies to get the support of voters,” an SP leader said.

The contest is expected to be bipolar since the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is unlikely to field a candidate. BSP state president Vishwanath Pal said: “No discussion has been made so far on the Ghosi bypoll. Usually, the BSP avoids contesting Assembly bypolls. But a final decision will be taken by national president Mayawati. As of now, we are preparing for the bigger goal of Lok Sabha elections.”

In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BSP’s Wasim Iqbal had finished third, likely owing to a large chunk of the Muslim vote going to the SP-led alliance. The Congress had won only 0.78% votes in Ghosi.

In the past six Assembly elections, Ghosi voters have elected an OBC MLA five times. Phagu Chauhan, who is now the Governor of Meghalaya, won the seat four times – thrice as the BJP candidate in 1996, 2002 and 2017, and once with the BSP in 2007. Considered among the most influential OBC leaders in the Azamgarh and Mau regions, Chauhan has won the Ghosi seat six times in a political career spanning more than three decades. In 2012, though, the SP’s Rajput candidate was elected.

Dara Singh Chauhan was elected as an MLA from the Madhuban seat in Mau district as a BJP candidate in the 2017 elections and was subsequently appointed as a Cabinet minister. But ahead of the 2022 polls, he resigned to join the SP and contest from Ghosi.

OBCs dominate the Ghosi Assembly constituency. There are around 60,000 Rajbhar voters, 50,000 Chauhans (also known as Nonias), around 40,000 Yadavs and 60,000 Dalits. There are also around 90,000 Muslim voters.

“The BJP has won Ghosi the most number of times in comparison to other parties. But the party lost the seat in 2022 because both Dara Singh Chauhan and Om Prakash Rajbhar were with the SP at the time. Both Chauhan and Rajbhar have a strong following in the region. But now both are back with the BJP and, hence, chances are strong for us to win the seat,” said a BJP leader from Mau district.

The SP’s Mau district president, Dudhnath Yadav, though, claimed his party will win the bypoll. “Dara Singh Chauhan had won in 2022 because of the SP’s votes. Local voters are inclined to support socialist ideology… Support from the INDIA members will also help the SP,” Yadav said.