Congress likely to win Haryana, its alliance with NC has edge in J-K: Exit polls

With 90 Assembly constituencies this time, the India Today-C Voter poll put the Congress-NC at near the halfway mark. It gave 40-48 seats to the Congress-NC, 27-32 to the BJP, 6-12 to the PDP, and 6-11 to ‘Others’.

What pollsters said about Haryana electionsThe Dainik Bhaskar exit poll predicted 35-40 seats for the Congress-NC, 20-25 for the BJP, 4-7 for the PDP, and 12-18 for ‘Others’. Axis My India put the figures at 35-45 for the Congress-NC, 24-34 for the BJP, 4-6 for PDP and 8-23 for ‘Others’.

A poll by Gulistan News gave 31-36 seats to the Congress-NC alliance, 28-30 to the BJP, 5-7 to the PDP, and 19-23 to ‘Others’. People’s Pulse gave the Congress-NC 46-50 and the BJP 23-27.

The trends suggest a decent performance for the BJP in Jammu, as the party is traditionally weak in the Kashmir valley.

In the 2014 J&K Assembly elections, before the state was split into two Union Territories, the PDP had won 28 seats, BJP 25, NC 15 and Congress 12. The hung poll verdict led to the PDP-BJP forming a coalition government, but the BJP pulled the plug in June 2018.

In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, two J&K seats went to the NC, two to the BJP, and one to an Independent.

What pollsters said about Jammu and Kashmir elections

The poll scene got muddied this time with the entry of an unusually large number of Independents — as many as 365 filed their nominations and, along with the smaller parties, People’s Conference, Apni Party and Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) of the recently-released-on-bail Engineer Rashid, they added up to 45 per cent of the contestants in J&K.

According to the Congress-NC seat-sharing arrangement, the Congress contested 32 seats while the NC fielded 51 candidates. The two parties were in friendly contests in five seats, and left one seat each for the CPI(M)’s M Y Tarigami, and National Panthers Party-India’s Harsh Dev Singh.

The overall turnout in J&K, which went to polls in three phases (on September 18, September 24 and October 1) was 63.88%. While the turnout was 65.52 per cent in the 2014 Assembly elections, it was 58.46 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

In Haryana, which saw 61.19 per cent polling on Saturday – the turnout was 68.31 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections – all the exit polls predicted a lead or comfortable win for the Congress in the 90-member House.

The Dainik Bhaskar poll predicted 44-54 seats for the Congress, 15-29 for the BJP, 0-1 for the JJP, 1-5 for the INLD, and 0-1 for the AAP. The Republic Bharat-Matrize poll gave 55-62 seats to the Congress, 18-24 to the BJP, 0-3 to the JJP, 3-6 to the INLD and none for the AAP. The India Today-C Voter poll gave 50-58 seats to the Congress, 20-28 to the BJP, and 10-16 to ‘Others’ including the INLD and JJP. Axis My India gave the Congress 53-65 seats, and the BJP 18-28.

In the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, the BJP had won 40 seats, Congress 31, JJP 10, INLD 1, Haryana Lokhit Party 1, and Independent 7. In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, 5 of the state’s seats went to the Congress and another five to the BJP. In 2019, the BJP had swept all the 10 Lok Sabha seats from the state.

Eyeing a third term in power, the BJP had replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as Chief Minister earlier this year. The Congress and AAP, both INDIA bloc allies, failed to reach a seat-sharing agreement and went to polls separately. Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party, earlier a BJP ally, fielded candidates in alliance with Chandershekar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), while Abhay Chautala-led INLD joined hands with Mayawati’s BSP.

The results of the Assembly elections in Haryana and J&K will be declared on October 8.