Eye on Assembly polls, eager not to blunt Art 370 narrative, wary BJP keeps out of Kashmir

At a time when the BJP is not contesting any of the three seats in Kashmir, after a build-up that included a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in March (his first to Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370), the development deepens confusion over the party’s plans in the Valley.

On April 16, speaking in Jammu’s Reasi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah first indicated that the party might not contest in Kashmir when he said the BJP is “not in a hurry to see the lotus bloom in the Valley”. He went on to urge voters not to back National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or Congress candidates.

“We are not going to ‘conquer’ Kashmir as projected by our adversaries. We want to win every heart in Kashmir,” Shah said.

The BJP’s decision followed the failure of the INDIA bloc parties NC and PDP to come to an agreement in the Valley. In Jammu, both the NC and PDP are backing the Congress.

This means that Kashmir’s mainstream political parties are now pitted against each other in the Valley. While it is expected to be a direct fight between the NC and PDP in Srinagar and in Anantnag-Rajouri (from where PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti is contesting), in Baramulla, the NC’s Omar Abdullah is facing Peoples Conference’s leader Sajad Lone.

Sources in the BJP say that this serves the party well, both in deepening the fault lines between the NC and PDP as well as preparing the ground for it for the Assembly elections, which are scheduled to be held by September, as per Supreme Court orders.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had contested all the seats in Jammu and Kashmir – winning two seats of Jammu and one of Ladakh (it was part of J&K at the time), while putting up a poor show in Kashmir. Its best show was in Anantnag, at 8.15% of the votes.

Assembly elections were last held in J&K in 2016, making the Lok Sabha polls the first major election to be held in Kashmir post-Article 370 abrogation in August 2019.

Many expected the BJP to make the most of it, especially given its improved chances in Anantnag, now called Anantnag-Rajouri, after the addition of areas from the Jammu districts of Poonch and Rajouri.

However, BJP insiders say that the developments post-Article 370 were precisely the reason the party is approaching 2024 differently.

“In 2019, we knew we don’t have much support in the Valley,” a party leader says. “Since the abrogation (of special status), the BJP has built a narrative that the people in Jammu as well as Kashmir are happy. We have talked about a ‘Naya Kashmir’. But not all people agree… If we had not got sufficient votes, it would have been a blow to our narrative,” the leader says.

With Rajouri and Poonch areas included, and parts of Pulwama and Shopian excluded, the political equations have dramatically changed in the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary seat. The PDP has called the changes a deliberate move to “rob the PDP of its political base”, as these are seen to have strengthened the BJP’s position.

In months to go before the elections, the Centre cleared a long-standing promise of reservation for the Pahari community, now in substantial numbers in Anantnag-Rajouri.

However, sources say that ultimately, the BJP’s calculation was that the constituency remained risky even after the changes, given that a majority of its voters are still Muslims. A high turnout from the Kashmiri side of the seat, which is expected given the eagerness for a chance to exercise opinion post-Article 370, could make the BJP plans go awry.

Against this backdrop, Shah’s appeal to voters against choosing the NC, PDP or the Congress is being read as a signal of the BJP’s support to parties in the Valley often referred to as the Centre’s proxy by their opponents.

When Ghulam Nabi Azad, who founded the DPAP after leaving the Congress, declared his intent to contest from Anantnag-Rajouri, talk went around that he was the BJP’s candidate for the seat. Azad belongs to the Jammu region and it made more sense for him to contest from Udhampur, his home constituency.

But Azad later dropped out in favour of the lesser-known Advocate Saleem Parray of his party, reportedly after getting feelers that he wasn’t likely to get much support even from the Paharis, as he was seen as an “outsider”.

The Pahari vote in Anantnag-Rajouri is now expected to split between the NC, PDP and the Apni Party’s Zafar Iqbal Manhas, a Pahari leader. Any party that can attract the most Pahari votes is likely to have an edge.

The Apni Party, which was formed in 2021 apparently with the Centre’s blessing, and People’s Conference, which is seen as close to the Centre, have already announced support for each other.

The BJP’s opponents are watching the developments, especially in Anantnag-Rajouri, with much interest. “They didn’t have much stakes in the Valley,” says a PDP leader. “But after delimitation and after pitting the Gujjar and Pahari communities against each other (on account of the reservation), they have managed what they wanted for the long term. While there were social fault lines between the Gujjars, Paharis, Shias and Sunnis, they didn’t impact politics, which is why a Gujjar leader like Mian Altaf could win earlier from the Kangan Assembly segment, where a majority are ethnic Kashmiris.”

Mian Altaf, who is a Gujjar spiritual leader with a large following in the community, is now the NC candidate from Anantnag-Rajouri.

Asked about the BJP’s decision not to field candidates in Kashmir, its J&K chief Ravinder Raina said at a press conference in Jammu last week: “Sometimes decisions are made to achieve a big goal.” He also said that the BJP would support “patriotic” parties in the Valley.

Party sources say that what Raina meant by “a bigger goal” was the Assembly elections. “We know we are not strong enough at this point in Kashmir. So we decided to support candidates who are in a better position to take on the NC, PDP and Congress… It will also help us forge stronger alliances for the Assembly elections, which are more important to the party than the three parliamentary seats,” a party leader says.