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Journalism of Courage
Since the electorate in Karnataka rejected the BJP, the party has shown that nothing — even a debacle in the only southern state where it has ever been in power — would push it away from its political-governance agenda, underlining that its position “on governance or ideological issues would not get affected by electoral setbacks”. But what has the BJP concerned is the road ahead. At present, the party does not have its house in order in the poll-bound states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
The Narendra Modi government’s three recent decisions — promulgation of an Ordinance to nullify the ruling of the Supreme Court Constitution Bench handing over the reins of “services” to the Delhi government; the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 notes, and the removal of Kiren Rijijju from the Law Ministry — have drawn criticism and surprised critics and party insiders alike. The message was clear: nothing can deter it from doing what it wants.
While several experts see the Karnataka result — in which 31 of its candidates lost deposits — as a vote against the BJP rather than a vote for the Congress, for many BJP leaders it was not a verdict against the party or its policies but the outcome of “poor election management”. “So, it should not derail any of our agenda,” said a leader. Party functionaries also believe the result, which has given the Congress a big boost, was neither a referendum on the national BJP nor will it have any impact on the Lok Sabha elections next year.
But the party’s condition in the poll-bound states has the leadership concerned. In Madhya Pradesh, one of the BJP’s fortresses that has been crucial to it since its Jan Sangh days, the party is facing an unprecedented crisis according to insiders. The BJP lost its hold over the Dalit and tribal support base in the 2018 elections and, under the guidance of senior party leader P Murlidhar Rao, launched a massive organisational revival plan months ago. The party’s efforts to strengthen the organisation at the ground level, with the heavy use of technology, are being viewed as successful in some measure. But the deepening rift between leaders, a sense of fatigue surrounding four-time Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and the leadership’s failure to ensure an amicable relationship between its longtime workers and leaders and those who joined from the Congress in 2020 has become a cause for headache.
The BJP returned to power in March 2020, despite losing the Assembly election two years earlier, after 23 MLAs led by Jyotiraditya Scindia defected from the Congress and brought down the Kamal Nath-led government. The inclusion of those Congress rebels and their subsequent promotion in the government left many old-timers bitter and disillusioned and that is still brewing.
The BJP central leadership’s failure to shape a strong regional leadership structure shows in Madhya Pradesh. Shivraj Singh Chouhan is considered to be the favoured choice of the current leadership and it picked him in 2020 as he was the only popular leader in the state who could help the party tide over any negative public sentiment following the toppling of an elected government. Since then, BJP circles have often been abuzz with speculation of a possible change of guard but the leadership did not find Chouhan’s replacement. Now, it is stuck with the CM, one of whose drawbacks is voter fatigue.
Another worry for the party is that just like in Karnataka the CM and state BJP president do not get along well in Madhya Pradesh. Party insiders said neither the state leadership, including state president V D Sharma, nor the chief minister has the last word on strategy or key decisions. Senior state BJP leaders have cautioned the party that the current state of affairs, especially the lack of unity, may cost it dearly in the elections later this year.
The party was left embarrassed two weeks ago when former minister Deepak Joshi, the son of party veteran Kailash Joshi, joined the Congress as he was said to be unhappy with the importance accorded to Congress leaders led by Scindia who joined the party in 2020 and their promotion. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, the party’s most prominent tribal face and veteran Nand Kumar Sai quit the BJP and joined the Congress earlier this month. These exits illustrate the poor state of affairs in these state units.
In Rajasthan, the BJP has an issue of plenty when it comes to leaders. Now that Arjun Ram Meghwal has been elevated as the Union Law Minister, he has joined the battery of leaders being viewed as aspirants for the top job in the state. The national leadership has been struggling to maintain order but those who are involved in the functioning of the state unit admit that is proving to be elusive.
Things are not ideal in other states too such as Manipur and Tripura. In Manipur, where factions backing the Meiteis and Kukis are up in arms against each other, the top leadership has brought a temporary ceasefire and instructed them to bring the state back to normalcy before their issues are addressed. In Tripura, current Chief Minister Manik Saha and his predecessor Biplab Kumar Deb have started publicly expressing their differences. Sources said the divide was widening and the intervention of the top leadership was immediately required to stop it from spilling over.
The BJP has a challenge on its hand in several states. Though the Karnataka outcome may not have a direct impact on the national elections, these states will certainly feel its reverberations.
