Bihar Election Results 2025 LIVE Updates: What’s next for Tejashwi Yadav after the RJD debacle

The top leadership of both the ruling NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan are claiming that the increase in voter turnout in the Bihar Assembly elections, the results of which will be declared on Friday, has gone in their favour.

Bihar saw an overall 66.91% voter turnout over two phases of polling, which is the highest since the first Assembly elections in the state in 1951, and an increase of 9.62 percentage points over 57.29% in 2020.

In states where electoral contests are largely bipolar, such as Bihar, the traditional wisdom is that an increase in voter turnout suggests the possibility of a change of government. But where smaller parties could play key roles by cutting votes, no side can be sure. However, given how close the 2020 elections were, this huge surge in voting is expected to be decisive.

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As the results of the latest round of assembly polls in Bihar, which indicated NDA’s landslide victory, started pouring in, the reaction of the Congress national spokesperson, Pawan Khera, was symptomatic of the crisis the party is facing.

Addressing the media, Khera said that the imprint of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar Gupta is writ large over the results. Khera’s remarks reaffirmed that Congress continues to be in a denial mode, refusing to read the real problems. Its leadership has consistently let the workers down with their reluctance to lead from the front. In Bihar, its woes were compounded by the fact that it did not have any organisational structure or mass base.

The Bihar results point toward the persistent decline of the Congress in the state. In the 2020 assembly polls, as part of the Mahagathbandhan, Congress had fielded candidates in 70 constituencies. It eventually won 19, polling a mere 9.6 per cent votes. It was blamed for overstating its social and geographical reach, to secure a disproportionate number of constituencies as part of the seat-sharing deal, and pulling the opposition alliance down.

The People’s Democratic Party is on track to capture the Budgam constituency in central Kashmir, a seat long dominated by the National Conference since 1977 and last held by former chief minister Omar Abdullah.

After Omar chose to retain his home constituency and vacated Budgam, a bypoll was triggered—giving PDP’s Aga Muntazir Mehdi a fresh opening. This time, Muntazir built on a year of sustained grassroots presence, gaining a lead of over 5,000 votes against NC’s Aga Syed Mahmood after 13 counting rounds.

The NC, meanwhile, suffered visible internal discord, with influential Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi openly criticising party leadership and refusing to campaign. His absence weakened the party’s outreach, especially among Budgam’s sizeable Shia population. With PDP president Mehbooba Mufti actively campaigning, the party’s likely victory is set to boost its morale despite its small Assembly presence.hrough in Budgam as NC Faces Internal Rift The People’s Democratic Party is on track to capture the Budgam constituency in central Kashmir, a seat long dominated by the National Conference since 1977 and last held by former chief minister Omar Abdullah.

After Omar chose to retain his home constituency and vacated Budgam, a bypoll was triggered—giving PDP’s Aga Muntazir Mehdi a fresh opening. This time, Muntazir built on a year of sustained grassroots presence, gaining a lead of over 5,000 votes against NC’s Aga Syed Mahmood after 13 counting rounds. The NC, meanwhile, suffered visible internal discord, with influential Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi openly criticising party leadership and refusing to campaign. His absence weakened the party’s outreach, especially among Budgam’s sizeable Shia population. With PDP president Mehbooba Mufti actively campaigning, the party’s likely victory is set to boost its morale despite its small Assembly presence.

Bihar’s election, billed as a straight contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, has turned into a sweeping show of strength for the ruling alliance. With the JD(U) and BJP competing for the position of single-largest party and the NDA leading in over 180 seats, the Opposition’s fortunes have sharply dipped.

The RJD, the biggest party in 2020, has slid below 50 leads, while the Congress has fallen to single digits. The NDA’s gains stem from tight vote consolidation within its five-party coalition, boosted by Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM. Nitish Kumar’s welfare-driven campaign and strong support among women voters further tilted the scales. Emerging winners like the LJP (RV) and smaller allies such as HAM(S) and RLM now look set to become influential players in the state’s political landscape.

As the votes rolled in, shock spread through Congress circles from Patna to Delhi. What was expected to be a modestly competitive showing spiraled into a stunning collapse, with the party struggling to secure even a handful of seats. Though many leaders sensed headwinds in the weeks leading up to counting day, few anticipated a meltdown of this scale. Insiders point to the party’s recent pivot toward backward and EBC politics — a strategy meant to counter the NDA — as a key misstep. The shift alienated Congress’s traditional upper-caste supporters without winning over the very groups it aimed to court, many of whom continued to see Nitish Kumar as the more credible option. The result, as one senior leader put it, “just didn’t add up.”

Chirag Paswan’s spectacular showing in the 2025 Bihar elections is nothing short of a political resurrection. Written off after his party’s split, dismissed as a lightweight, and mocked for calling himself PM Narendra Modi’s ‘Hanuman’, the 43-year-old LJP (RV) chief has delivered one of the biggest surprises of this election. Eyebrows were raised when the NDA handed his party 29 seats, a generous quota many in the alliance privately questioned. Today, Chirag stands vindicated. His party is on course to touch the LJP’s best-ever tally from 2005, restoring not just his political relevance but placing him firmly among the biggest winners of this election cycle. Once out in the cold, now a central pillar of the NDA, Chirag Paswan’s rise marks the arrival of a new star on Bihar’s political horizon.

(Liz Mathew writes)

In a remote corner of Goh in Jehanabad — once known for fear and violence in the Lalu Prasad era — an elderly woman halted a campaign convoy with her determined voice: “Chahe koi goli ki dhamki de de… hum Narendra Modi ji ko hi vote denge. Unhone humein ration, makan aur pehchaan di hai.” Her assertion reflects a recurring sentiment on the ground this election season. While analysts in Delhi framed the Bihar contest as a caste arithmetic battle, many voters appeared moved more by welfare delivery and perceived dignity gains. For the NDA, narratives of development, social justice, housing and ration schemes created a strong resonance. The Congress-led alliance, by contrast, struggled to present a coherent alternative, often leaning on defensive or fear-driven messaging. In the resolve of voters like Kunti Devi Paswan — and countless others who felt state support reach their doorsteps — lies an insight into the scale of the NDA surge across Bihar today.

Early vote-share analysis reveals contrasting fortunes for Bihar’s key parties. The JD(U) has staged a comeback — nearly doubling its 2020 tally of 43 seats to about 81, powered by a roughly 4-point jump in vote share to 19%. The BJP, too, is on an upswing, improving from 74 to around 91 seats, with its vote share rising from 19.46% to 21.18%.

The RJD, however, presents a paradox: despite retaining its 23% vote share — the highest among all parties — its seat tally has plunged from 75 in 2020 to just 27 leads.

The Congress faces the sharpest slide, shrinking from 19 seats in 2020 to 4 leads, with its vote share dipping from 9.48% to around 8%.

(Contributed by Anjishnu Das)

The NDA’s commanding performance in the Bihar Assembly elections has blurred the region-wise dynamics, with an advantage for the ruling coalition in the Mahagathbandhan strongholds of Shahabad and Seemanchal. The Opposition’s failure in Seemanchal, where Muslims form a sizable chunk of the electorate, shows that Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori (vote theft)” narrative and campaign against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls did not work.

📌 Seemanchal (comprising Kishanganj, Purnea, Araria, and Katihar)

The NDA is expected to win 10-12 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan could end up with 8-10 constituencies at best. This region has a sizable Muslim population, which may have influenced the voting patterns. The NDA had won 12 seats last time, the AIMIM five, and the Mahagathbandhan seven.

📌 Magadh (Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehanabad, Arwal, Nalanda, and Nawada)

The NDA has a lead in about 30-35 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan trails with 17-22 seats.

📌Shahabad (Bhojpur, Rohtas, Buxar and Kaimur)

A traditional bastion of social justice parties, this region gave 20 out of 22 seats to the Mahagathbandhan in 2020, but this time the ruling coalition appears poised to win 10-12 constituencies.

📌Mithilanchal and Kosi (Over a dozen districts, including Madhubani, Samastipur, Supaul, Madhepura and Saharsa)

The NDA is expected to secure 50-55 seats, leaving the Opposition alliance with 18-23 constituencies.

📌Angika (Bhagalpur, Munger, Banka, and Jamui)

The NDA could well end up with 20-23 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan looks set to bag 7-10 seats.

(Contributed by Santosh Singh)

The Bihar verdict has delivered a blunt message to the Mahagathbandhan’s latest social-engineering gamble: Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) has failed to deliver. Contesting 10 seats as part of the RJD-led alliance, the VIP is not leading on a single constituency, despite Sahani being projected as a deputy CM face to woo Extremely Backward Classes. VIP’s collapse exposes both weak organisational depth and Sahani’s limited traction among the fragmented Nishad community.

While Mallahs, his core base, form just 2.6% of Bihar’s population, other key sub-castes like Binds, Manjhis and Turhas have stayed firmly aligned with the NDA, whose two-decade EBC outreach under Nitish Kumar and the BJP has built deep, durable loyalty. Frequent political shifts have also dented Sahani’s credibility, with many voters viewing him as inconsistent.

His failure is a strategic setback for the RJD, which had hoped to break into the NDA’s strongest caste bloc. The results reaffirm a central truth of Bihar politics: Caste arithmetic alone cannot upend entrenched social alliances without sustained grassroots work. VIP’s blank slate not only weakens Sahani’s bargaining power but may renew conversations about his return to the NDA, invitations that had been quietly circulating before the polls.

The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) punching above its weight (leading on over 20 of the 29 seats it contested) marks a defining moment for Chirag Paswan.

For months, critics argued that the BJP had “over-rewarded” him in seat-sharing. Chirag has not only justified the generous allocation but converted perception into performance, delivering one of the NDA’s highest strike rates. His strong showing signals a shift:

📌Chirag is no longer just Ram Vilas Paswan’s heir — he is now an independent electoral force.

📌Many of the seats given to the LJP(RV) were ones the NDA had previously struggled in.

📌His re-entry into the NDA has brought the alliance a crucial 5-6% Paswan/Dalit vote, contributing significantly to the JD(U)’s massive rebound from 43 seats in 2020 to over 75 leads today.

While the broader NDA wave has buoyed all allies, LJP(RV)’s standout performance reshapes internal dynamics:

📌Chirag gains real bargaining power in government formation.

📌 His success positions him as a potential leader in Bihar’s post-Nitish political era.

📌 It strengthens the NDA’s projection of a broad, socially inclusive coalition.

For a leader once dismissed with “Hanuman politics” jibes, today’s numbers mark a decisive personal and political evolution.

(Contributed by Deeptiman Tiwary )

The Mahagathbandhan, which put up a strong fight in Bihar’s SC-reserved seats in 2020, has been reduced to single digits this election.

Early trends:

NDA leading in 35 of 38 SC seats

Mahagathbandhan ahead in only 3

(Compared to 2020: NDA 21, MGB 17)

Party-wise leads in SC seats:

JD(U): 14 — biggest jump from its 2020 tally of 8

BJP: 11 — set to improve on its 2020 tally of 9

LJP (RV): 6 — dramatic rise after drawing a blank in 2020

HAM(S): 4 RJD: 2 — down from 9 in 2020

Congress: 1 — down from 4

The standout performer is Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV), leading in 6 of the 8 SC seats it contested, signalling a consolidation of its Dalit Paswan support.

ST seats:

Congress leads in Manihari

RJD leads in Katoria

(2020: Congress won Manihari; BJP won Katoria)

(Contributed by Anjishnu Das)

After a term with no Muslim MLA in the Bihar Assembly, early trends show a shift: four Muslim candidates from the NDA are currently leading. JD(U) leads in three seats — Araria (Shagufta Azim), Jokihat (Manzar Alam) and Chainpur (Mohd Zama Khan).

- LJP (RV)’s lone Muslim nominee Mohd Kalimuddin leads in Bahadurganj. BJP, as in 2020, has fielded no Muslim candidates.

- On the Opposition side: RJD has three Muslim candidates leading — in Sursand, Raghunathpur and Rafiganj.

- Congress nominee Washi Ahmed leads from Bettiah. CPI(ML)-Liberation candidate Quyamuddin Ansari leads in Arrah. AIMIM, which had five Muslim MLAs in the outgoing House, has three candidates leading — in Kochadhaman, Amour and Baisi.

- Muslims constitute 17.7% of Bihar’s population.

(Contributed by Lalmani Verma)

After having no Muslim MLA in the outgoing Bihar assembly, NDA’s four Muslim candidates are leading as the counting of votes is in progress on 243 seats of Bihar.

Nitish Kumar-led JDU’s three Muslim candidates are leading in Araria (Shagufta Azim), Jokihat (Manzar Alam) and Chainpur (Mohd Zama Khan). Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) has fielded only one Muslim candidate—Mohd Kalimuddin and he is leading in Bahadaurganj seat. The BJP, like in 2020, has not fielded any Muslim candidate. Muslims make up 17.7% of Bihar’s population.

In the grand-alliance, RJD’s three muslim candidates are leading in Sursand, Raghunathpur and Rafiganj. The RJD had named 18 Muslims among its 143 candidates, as it did in 2020. Congress’ Muslim candidate Washi Ahmed is leading in Bettiah. The Congress had fielded 10 Muslims – two less than the 2020 polls, when its four Muslim nominees were elected as MLAs. Under Nitish’s leadership, JD(U) claims to enjoy the support of 20% of the Muslim population in the state.

In 2020, the JD(U) had fielded 11 Muslims, but all of them lost. The CPI (ML) Liberation nominated two Muslims among its 20 candidates and one Quyamuddin Ansari was leading in Arrah, as per trends on Election Commission website. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM that had five Muslim MLAs in previous assembly, its only three Muslim candidates are in leading position in current elections. They are leading in Kochadhaman, Amour and Baisi seats.

(Contributed by Lalmani Verma)

In what is emerging as one of the most striking storylines of the Bihar results, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, despite its high-octane yatra, grassroots mobilisation and issue-based campaign, is nowhere in the race.

Early EC trends show the party struggling to lead in any seat, a dramatic contrast to the momentum it built over two years across the state. Speaking to PTI Video, party spokesperson Pavan K Varma acknowledged the disappointing verdict and said Jan Suraaj would undertake a “serious review” of its performance.

“We worked with full sincerity, with the belief that Bihar needs fundamental change… If we have not won the people’s trust, we will analyse why,” he said. Varma insisted the party’s ideas had still shaped the election, forcing mainstream players to foreground issues like employment, migration, education and corruption-free governance.

“That gives us satisfaction,” he noted. On the NDA surge, Varma said results often defy predictions and praised Nitish Kumar’s continuing acceptance among voters: “I have worked closely with him… We are happy he has received the people’s mandate.” Rejecting speculation that Prashant Kishor might leave Bihar after the setback, Varma added: “Bihar cannot leave him, nor can he leave Bihar… Once results are out, he will share the future course.”

Jan Suraaj now faces the tough task of converting admiration for its political language into organisational muscle, a gap the 2025 results have exposed with brutal clarity.

(With PTI inputs)

Despite ushering in a new political language, single-handedly making migration an electoral issue, grabbing media headlines, securing significant social media traction, Prashant Kishor’s debut in Bihar elections has come a cropper. His party, the Jan Suraaj, is currently not leading on a single seat in the state.

The party’s lacklustre performance has exposed the limitations of technocratic politics in a largely rural state where voters value proximity and familiarity as much as larger political narratives. The party had given a large number of tickets to doctors, professors, academics and people with good educational standing. Most had no political background. The attempt was to project the party as progressive that could deliver governance rising above caste lines. This, however, appears to have not instilled enough confidence among voters to view Jan Suraaj as an alternative in Bihar.

This crushing defeat makes Jan Suraaj’s road ahead tougher. It may also be a lesson for Kishor that in a complex state as Bihar, you cannot garner significant support merely through innovative campaigns and social media blitzkrieg. Kishor will have to focus on building a grassroots organization over the next five years, groom candidates who work with the people in this period, and then mount a challenge to the established order. As a voter in Motihari said, “I like what Prashant Kishor says. He appears credible, talks with evidence. But it is too new a party. Let his leaders and workers come to us for the next five years, raise our voice, solve our issue, and then we will believe he means business

This crushing defeat makes Jan Suraaj’s road ahead tougher. It may also be a lesson for Kishor that in a complex state as Bihar, you cannot garner significant support merely through innovative campaigns and social media blitzkrieg. Kishor will have to focus on building a grassroots organization over the next five years, groom candidates who work with the people in this period, and then mount a challenge to the established order. As a voter in Motihari said, “I like what Prashant Kishor says. He appears credible, talks with evidence. But it is too new a party. Let his leaders and workers come to us for the next five years, raise our voice, solve our issue, and then we will believe he means business.”

(Contributed by Deeptiman Tiwary)

The trends of Bihar results show a setback for the Congress, which had focused its campaign around the “vote chori” allegations against the BJP-led Central government. Congress contested 61 seats as part of grand alliance and only five of its candidates were in the leading position as of 12 noon on Friday. PCC Chief Rajesh Ram himself was trailing the NDA candidate from HAM(S) — Lalan Ram in Kutumba by a margin of over 250 votes.

CLP leader Shakeel Ahmed Khan was trailing against JD(U)’s Dulal Chandra Goswami by a margin of 15600 votes in the Kadwa seat.

Congress had contested 70 seats in 2020 polls as part of grand-alliance and only 19 of them had won and the grand-old party was blamed for failure of the RJD-led alliance in winning the majority.

(Contributed by Lalmani Verma)

In one of the more striking subplots of the early Bihar trends, the combined Left is matching, and at moments surpassing, its much larger Mahagathbandhan partner, the Congress.

The CPI(ML) Liberation is currently leading in 7 seats, while the CPI(M) is ahead in 1, putting the Left bloc’s tally on par with the Congress, which is oscillating between 6 and 7 leads. This performance comes despite a wide disparity in seat share: the Congress contested 60 seats, compared to the CPI(ML)’s 20 and CPI(M)’s 4.

The CPI, which fielded candidates in 9 constituencies, is yet to make notable early gains. The Left had won 16 seats in 2020, with CPI(ML) bagging 12 of them, marking its best showing in decades. Today’s neck-and-neck contest with the Congress suggests the Left’s organisational depth and cadre mobilisation remain key pillars of the Mahagathbandhan, even as the broader alliance struggles to convert its vote base uniformly.

(Contributed Jatin Anand)

The lone seat that the BSP is leading in is Ramgarh, which it lost in 2020 by a slender margin of 189 votes to the RJD. After four rounds of counting, the BSP candidate was leading his nearest rival of the BJP by just over 4,000 votes.

After eight rounds of counting, AAP’s Harmeet Singh Sandhu has opened up a lead of 3,668 votes with a total of 20,454. SAD’s Sukhwinder Kaur remains in second place with 16,786, while Independent Mandeep Singh Khalsa holds third at 9,162. Congress’s Karanbir Singh has now slipped to fourth with 8,760 votes, and BJP’s Harjit Singh Sandhu trails in fifth.

(Contributed by Kamaldeep Singh Brar)

What makes Nitish Kumar such a force in Bihar politics? Is it the success of his social engineering project — putting together a coalition of Extremely Backward Classes, Mahadalits, and non-Yadav OBCs — or his welfare schemes for women, who have unflinchingly backed him for the past two decades? No matter the ups and downs, the CM always ends up on top, holding the key to power. This time, the JD(U)'s dominant performance will leave no question marks hanging over him.

Here is an excerpt from Santosh Singh's profile of Nitish Kumar. Read the full profile here.

"Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was the number one party in 2010 (115 seats), number two in 2015 (71 seats, when he was part of the Mahagathbandhan) and number three party in 2020. Despite this apparent slide, Nitish went on to become CM each time. His numbers did not matter, what mattered was which side he chose.

"The BJP tried its best to decode this “Nitish factor”, but failed. In 2015, with Nitish out of the NDA, the BJP in Bihar had hoped to ride on the Modi wave that brought it to power in the 2014 general elections. But despite a high-pitched campaign by PM Modi, the Mahagathbandhan, of which Nitish was a part then, won 178 of 243 seats and rode to power. Nitish had proved that he held the key to the power cabinet."

As per trends this morning, the Congress was reduced to just seven seats in Bihar, with its two topmost leaders also training in their respective constituencies. While Congress Bihar unit president Rajesh Kumar was trailing HAM (S)’s Lalan Ram by 3,721 votes in Kutumba seat, Congress Legislative Party Leader (CLP) Shakeel Ahmad Khan was trailing JD(U)’s Dulal Chandra Goswami by 18,816 votes in Kadwa constituency. Both leaders had won their seats in 2020.

(Contributed by Asad Rehman, Political Bureau)

As per the latest trends, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) is at the forefront leading in 73 seats, even ahead of the BJP. Even if the party ends up as the single largest party in the 243 member Bihar Assembly, it may not be a surprise as the highlight of the elections, since the polls were announced, has been Nitish Kumar.

With Kumar being the “biggest factor” in the November elections, his own JD(U), many in his ally BJP and even some in the Opposition, had admitted that a possibility of the JD(U) emerging as a bigger force could not be ruled out, even though the BJP ensured that it fought the same number of seats as its ally – 101 each – for the first time in their alliance. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the JD(U) won only 43 of the total 115 seats it contested, but the BJP had won 74 of its share of 110.

The reasons for Kumar dominating the politics and minds of Biharis are many: the overwhelming support and goodwill he enjoys among women, his track record as an honest leader who has brought out Bihar from the dark days of lawlessness, dacoity and caste wars, his government’s achievements in sowing the seeds of development and progress for the state, absence of a popular and accepted leadership in the state BJP, and the lack of credibility for the main opposition RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. While managing to take charge of electioneering in the state, the BJP has failed to bring in a credible set of leaders for the state.

Top BJP leaders themselves admitted that those who could draw the crowd for the rallies and roadshows in this election have been Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Nitish Kumar and LJP (RV) leader Chirag Paswan, not any one from the state leadership of the BJP. Its three top leaders in the state are Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, Health Minister Mangal Pandey and state president Dilip Jaiswal.

(Contributed by Liz Mathew)

NDA allies JD(U) and BJP are going neck-and-neck as the alliance continues to surge ahead, early trends suggested.

The biggest revelation is however the Chirag Paswan-led LJP (RV) that is leading in over 15 of the 29 seats it contested. If the trends hold, his political stock could rise, so could his influence in the alliance and position in state govt.

In the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD continues to enjoy primacy as the Congress seems to pull it back, leading only in 13 of the 61 seats it contested, bringing to the fore, the lack of mutual conversion of votes.

The Left too seems to be on the backfoot leading only in 4 of the 20 seats it fielded candidates in, lower than the 12 it won last time.

Debutant VIP also does not seem to be adding much to the Mahagathbandhan even as the IIP seems to be doing well.

Overall, the NDA looks ahead in terms of better social combination and in comparison to Mahagathbandhan’s.

(Santosh Singh)

One of the takeaways from the early trends is the performance of the JD(U), which was down to third in 2020, but is running neck and neck with ally BJP this time around, while the RJD is trailing in third place, as per EC figures. That the JD(U) would perform better in this election was apparent in BJP circles, as reported by Liz Mathew. Sources in the BJP told her that they were taken by surprise by the enduring popularity of CM Nitish Kumar. Many, including in the BJP and the Opposition, said the JD(U) would not be as far behind as it was in 2020, Liz wrote.

The Anta bypoll is turning into one of the most charged contests of the day, a tight, triangular battle between BJP’s Morpal Suman, Congress heavyweight Pramod Jain Bhaya, and Congress rebel-turned-Independent Naresh Meena, all drawn into a field of 15 but clearly the only three that matter.

For the ruling BJP, a win would be more than a seat — it would be damage control. The Bhajan Lal Sharma government has been fielding criticism over administrative friction, underscored by Chief Secretary Sudhansh Pant’s abrupt move back to the Centre. A victory here would steady the ship. For Vasundhara Raje, this is personal turf. After years of being sidelined, she has jumped into the campaign — and Anta lies on the edge of her Jhalawar stronghold. A loss would embolden rivals eager to write her off.

For the Congress, Bhaya’s win would revive a sluggish state unit and hand Ashok Gehlot a symbolic boost, with the candidate widely seen as aligned to the former CM. But perhaps the fiercest stakes belong to Naresh Meena, the serial rebel who has derailed Congress chances twice before. A win today would be his moment of vindication — proof, his supporters argue, that the party kept him out because it feared how high he could rise. Anta may be a bypoll, but its political temperature is anything but small.

(Courtesy Hamza Khan)

As counting intensifies in Bihar, an unusually symmetrical map is taking shape: JD(U) and BJP are tied at 70 seats each, with the RJD trailing at 40.

The NDA’s smaller allies are also holding their ground — LJP(RV) at 15, HAMS at 4, and a scattering of Left and regional players filling out the rest. Congress, at just 9 seats, remains the Mahagathbandhan’s soft underbelly. But beneath the numbers, the analytical spotlight is shifting to what may be the day’s most consequential storyline: the rise of the “M factor” — Mahila voters.

Women have outvoted men in Bihar’s last three Assembly elections, and Nitish Kumar’s new Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana (MMRY) — a ₹10,000 start-up grant with the promise of up to ₹2 lakh in follow-up support — may be reshaping the electoral terrain in real time. If the NDA holds its lead, analysts say this could be the election where women voters helped offset Nitish fatigue, anti-incumbency, and questions over his health. The stakes stretch well beyond Patna.

A strong women-led mandate in Bihar could ripple into West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and even Uttar Pradesh in 2026 and 2027 — as parties nationwide watch whether Nitish’s high-cash women’s scheme becomes the next template. For now, though, the scoreboard remains tight — and the “M factor” is becoming the hinge on which the day’s narrative turns.

In Tarn Taran, the numbers are shifting fast.

AAP’s Harmeet Singh Sandhu has pulled ahead after Round 5, clocking 11,727 votes, with SAD candidate Sukhwinder Kaur trailing narrowly at 11,540, a razor-thin 187-vote margin. Congress’s Karanbir Singh remains a distant third, while Independent candidate Mandeep Singh Khalsa, the face of anti-Badal Akali factions, holds fourth. But beneath the arithmetic lies a far more consequential fight.

This bypoll has become a referendum on the fractured Shiromani Akali Dal universe. Mandeep Singh, backed by multiple panthic groups, carries the emotional weight of his imprisoned brother Sandeep Singh Sunny, a symbolic figure in anti-Badal circles following a controversial jail incident that galvanised human rights advocates and victims’ families.

The contest is now a measure of who commands the Panthic pulse: — SAD (Badal) leaning on organisational muscle and its “Dharmi Fauji” legacy, vs. — Akali breakaway formations, buoyed by sentiment, martyr politics, and the wider panthic consolidation visible since Amritpal Singh’s 2024 Lok Sabha victory. AAP’s narrow lead may dominate the numbers board, but politically, Tarn Taran is testing the future of Akali politics ahead of 2027 — and signaling which faction still speaks for Sikh voters.

After three rounds of counting in Mizoram’s Dampa bypoll, the Mizo National Front’s R. Lalthangliana has taken a steady lead over Zoram People’s Movement candidate Vanlalsailova.

The contest, triggered by the death of two-time MNF MLA Lalrintluanga Sailo, carries outsized significance for the MNF. Swept out of power by the ZPM in 2023, the party has been fighting to prove it remains a serious regional force.

Dampa was one of only 10 seats MNF held onto, and losing it would harden the narrative that the ZPM now owns Mizoram’s political space. For the ZPM, the stakes are momentum.

The young party, already in government and fresh off winning the state’s lone Lok Sabha seat, will want to extend its electoral run and avoid handing the MNF a symbolic revival.

More rounds ahead — and the race remains open.

On the ground in Bihar, the early counting trends are producing a familiar but still fluid picture.

- BJP and JD(U) are running neck and neck, each trading marginal leads across rounds. The RJD, which emerged as the single largest party in the last Assembly polls, is lagging behind in the chase to repeat that performance, though officials caution it’s far too early to draw hard conclusions from first-hour data.

- Within the Mahagathbandhan, the Congress remains the weak link, struggling to open strong leads in the seats it contested. Meanwhile, LJP (Ram Vilas) is slowly picking up traction, posting early movements that the NDA will be watching closely, given Chirag Paswan’s role in the alliance’s social arithmetic.

- It is still early, margins remain thin, and several rounds of EVM counting are yet to land, but the competitive BJP–JD(U) race is emerging as the story to watch.

While Bihar’s numbers dominate the national attention, Hyderabad’s upscale Jubilee Hills constituency is staging a political test of its own, though a bypoll.

For the ruling Congress, this is a referendum on Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy’s first year in office, a chance to measure whether his aggressive governance pitch has translated into urban confidence.

For the BRS, the contest feels existential as after losing power last year, a defeat in one of Hyderabad’s emblematic constituencies would deepen the narrative of a party in retreat.

The BJP, meanwhile, sees strategic opportunity. With limited urban pockets where it can grow, the bypoll is its attempt to reset the narrative, even as both Congress and BRS accuse it of acting as the other’s “B-team.”

As counting progresses, Congress candidate Naveen Yadav V holds a narrow lead, with BRS’s Maganti Sunitha close behind, a race tight enough to keep all three parties invested. The result may not change who governs Telangana, but it will signal who is shaping the political imagination of Hyderabad.

As Bihar’s ballots are tallied and early trends favour the NDA, five storylines are shaping the day, each with the power to tilt the post-poll landscape.

The Nitish Kumar Question With JD(U) and BJP contesting an equal 101 seats, Nitish is no longer the senior partner by default. His leadership strength now hinges on how decisively the NDA wins, and how JD(U) performs relative to the BJP.

The Prashant Kishor Test Jan Suraaj’s debut is not a question of seats alone. Its vote share will reveal whether Kishor can carve a third space or fade as a one-cycle experiment. Even a modest dent in close contests could redefine futures.

Congress’s Struggle for Relevance Sixty seats. A Rahul Gandhi Yatra. And a party fighting invisibility. Today decides whether the Congress gains bargaining power, or becomes further peripheral to Bihar’s caste-driven politics.

VIP & IIP: Small Allies, Big Impact Mukesh Sahani’s VIP and I.P. Gupta’s IIP hold the key to EBC mobilisation. Their vote shares will show if the Mahagathbandhan successfully expanded its base, or miscalculated its coalition math.

Chirag Paswan’s High-Stakes Bet Given 29 seats despite a lone win last time, Chirag must prove his 2024 Lok Sabha “strike rate” wasn’t a fluke. A strong showing boosts his clout in the NDA; a weak one hands JD(U) ammunition to contain him.

Stay with us, these five threads will determine not just who wins, but who wields power next.

As NDA workers break into early celebrations with the alliance pulling ahead in first-round trends, a throwback to what Tejashwi Prasad Yadav has said after the exit pols gave edge to NDA.

The Mahagathbandhan leader had rejected both the exit polls, insisting that the surge of 76 lakh additional voters signals “a mandate for change, not continuity.”

Tejashwi, who raced through 85 public meetings during the campaign, says youth and women voters in particular are driving an undercurrent the numbers have yet to fully capture. He had also questioned the credibility of exit polls, accusing agencies of withholding sample sizes and recalling how predictions went wildly off the mark in previous elections. “We are crossing 160 seats,” he had said. Stay tuned to find out how many seats the Mahagathbandhan will win.

As early trends place the NDA ahead in the Bihar 2025 results, the ruling coalition’s three strategic pillars are clearly visible. Nitish Kumar’s political capital, a decisive women’s vote, and a favourable social arithmetic.

The NDA entered the polls buoyed by exit surveys and anchored its campaign on Nitish’s long incumbency, the “dashazari” Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, and the return of allies Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha, together adding critical caste breadth. Women outvoting men by nearly nine percentage points has strengthened NDA’s confidence, with the Jeevika-linked entrepreneurship scheme emerging as the centrepiece of its pitch.

Meanwhile, the social coalition, Kurmis, EBCs, and the Paswan and Kushwaha bases—has given the alliance a structural edge. With Nitish fronting 84 rallies and carrying the bulk of the campaign load, today’s mandate will test whether his two-decade-long governance model and welfare strategy can once again deliver victory.

Bihar’s political story cannot be told without Nitish Kumar — a leader who rose from early electoral defeats to become the state’s longest-serving Chief Minister. Born in Nalanda and shaped by the socialist movement under Karpoori Thakur, Nitish began his career during the anti-Congress wave of the late 1970s. After two early losses from Harnaut, he nearly quit politics, but his 1985 victory revived his trajectory and led to his entry into national politics as a Lok Sabha MP and Union Minister.

His decisive break from Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s and the formation of the Samata Party set the stage for the JD(U)–BJP alliance that reshaped Bihar. The turning point came in 2005, when Nitish defeated Lalu’s RJD through a powerful OBC-EBC coalition backed by BJP support. Since then, through shifting alliances and political recalibrations, Nitish has retained an unbroken centrality in Bihar’s power structure.

Samrat Choudhary, the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar and the NDA candidate from Tarapur (Munger district), is currently leading in his constituency as counting progresses. In a recent interview, he stated unabashedly that Nitish Kumar will remain Chief Minister if the NDA returns to power — “no two ways about it.”

Early trends from counting centres show the NDA slightly ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, with close contests across several battleground constituencies. Margins remain slim, and officials caution that the picture may shift as more rounds of EVM counting come in.

For those of you just tuning in!

As counting begins across the state, we bring you clear, steady, and continuous updates to help you understand not just who is leading, but why the trends are emerging the way they are.

Today’s verdict will test the strength of both alliances. The NDA leans on Nitish Kumar’s long political experience, its outreach to women voters, and a broadened caste coalition reinforced by allies like the LJP (Ram Vilas) and RLM. On the other side, the Mahagathbandhan bets on Tejashwi Yadav’s energy, an expanded social coalition, and the potential impact of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj on Bihar’s political equations.

Stay with us as we break down constituency-wise shifts, voter patterns, key battles, and what the final numbers could mean for Bihar’s political future. The day promises close contests, decisive margins, and many turning points—and we’re here to guide you through every one of them.

The one aspect that will be closely watched as counting for the Bihar Assembly election begins is the performance of the parties across the five distinct regions of the state – Tirhut, Mithilanchal and Kosi, Saran, Seemanchal and Shahabad.

Seemanchal, with several districts that are Muslim-dominated, is expected to go with the Mahagathbandhan, while Shahabad had in 2020 upset the NDA’s calculations by unexpectedly turning against it.

Tirhut

Comprising Muzaffarpur, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Vaishali, East Champaran and West Champaran districts, this region is the largest, comprising 49 Assembly seats. Of these, the two Champaran districts have been traditional NDA strongholds, while Sitamarhi and Muzaffarpur see keen contests.

Having lived through a period when dacoits were rampant in the area due to its proximity to the Nepal border, the Champaran belt has swung the NDA way due to police gaining an upper hand under the Nitish Kumar government.

The Tirhut region has a mixed population of upper castes and OBCs, besides concentrated populations of EBCs such as Dhanuks and Mallahs.

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“The farther one goes away from Bihar, more interesting Prashant Kishor appears” – this was how CPI (ML) Liberation general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya recently described Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor a.k.a. PK.

Kishor, 48, may not emerge as a major player in the Bihar Assembly elections, but no one could deny the buzz that the Jan Suraaj generated in its electoral debut.

The poll strategist-turned-politician Kishor, who sought to move beyond caste politics, made jobs, migration, education and health care the central plank of his party, setting a narrative over these issues in his intense campaign for the Bihar polls.

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With the counting of votes in the Bihar Assembly elections set to take place on Friday, here are five things to watch out for in this keen contest between the incumbent NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan.

Chief Minister and JD(U) president Nitish Kumar has long been the NDA’s face in Bihar. With the BJP and the JD(U) both allotted 101 seats as part of the NDA’s seat-sharing deal for the state’s 243 seats in the elections, the balance of power appeared to have shifted in the alliance, with the JD(U) no longer remaining the BJP’s senior ally. This indicated that even Nitish’s role may face scrutiny or challenge after the polls.

Jan Suraaj’s future

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has made its electoral debut, positioning itself as the third alternative in the Bihar elections. Its apparent strategy appears to be less about winning a large chunk of seats this time, and more about establishing its salience and winning voters’ confidence by garnering a significant percentage of votes.

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Already enthused by most exit polls giving it a clear advantage, the NDA is banking on three factors to retain power comfortably: a better social combination; welfare benefits for women, especially the “dashazari” scheme or the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, under which 1.5 crore prospective women entrepreneurs are eligible to receive Rs 10,000 in the first instalment; and an over-riding Nitish Kumar factor. If this works out, Nitish, who first became CM in October 2005, will take oath for the top job for a record 10th time.

For the NDA, there were a couple of things it had to do in the elections: get the social arithmetic right and play up the development narrative, especially the social welfare schemes. Given the importance of women’s vote in the rise of Nitish Kumar and his two decades in power, the narrative around the “dashazari scheme” and all that the CM has done for women voters over the years became a cornerstone of the NDA’s poll plank. That women have outvoted men by 8.8 percentage points will give the CM and his allies hope.

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