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Journalism of Courage
In his final speech in the Lok Sabha on Monday, while replying to the Motion of Thanks on President Droupadi Murmu’s address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a target of 370 seats for the ruling BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and 400 seats for the NDA.
Modi spent a considerable portion of his speech targeting the Congress, the leader of the Opposition INDIA bloc, projecting the party as the BJP’s main challenger. “They cobbled together a coalition a few days ago, but now are walking alone. The Congress people have learnt the job of a motor mechanic. So, they must have learnt about alignment. But I am seeing that the alignment of the alliance has deteriorated,” Modi said, in what seemed to be a reference to Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a bike mechanic shop in Delhi last year.
Exemplifying the party’s confidence heading into the Lok Sabha polls, Modi said that the “third tenure” of the BJP would lay a strong foundation for “progress in the next 1,000 years”.
While the BJP has struggled against some regional parties in recent state polls, in bipolar Assembly contests against the Congress, it has largely won. In the Lok Sabha elections, on the other hand, the BJP has increased its seat tally and vote share in consecutive elections, since its defeat in 2009. After winning a majority with 282 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP further extended its lead by 21 seats to 303 in the 2019 polls. To hit Modi’s target of 370 seats this time, the BJP will need to win 67 more seats.
Here’s how the BJP fared in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the state elections since then.
The BJP’s 303 seats in 2019 were spread across the country, including all the constituencies in nine states and UTs, and a near sweep in another five.
While the BJP had contested 428 seats in 2014 and won 282, it improved its strike rate in 2019 by a significant margin despite contesting in just 8 more seats, winning 303 of the 436 seats in which it fought.
From 2014 to 2019, the BJP gained 44 seats in 10 states and lost 23 in 10 states and UTs, for a net gain of 21 seats. Its biggest gains were in West Bengal (16 seats) followed by Karnataka (8), Odisha (7), Haryana and Telangana (3 each). But the party won fewer seats in UP (9), Bihar (5) and Andhra Pradesh (2).
As part of its preparation for the 2024 polls, the BJP is paying special attention to the 133 seats it contested and lost in 2019.
In these seats, it finished as the runner-up in 72 seats, of which 22 were in Bengal, 16 in UP, 11 in Odisha and 5 in Tamil Nadu. In 56 of these 72 seats, the BJP was pipped by non-Congress regional parties, including in 21 by the Trinamool Congress (TMC), 11 by the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and 10 by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The Congress bested the BJP in 15 of these seats.
In another 31 seats, including 14 in Kerala and 9 in Telangana, the BJP was placed third. In 7 seats, 4 of them in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP was placed fourth. In 23 seats, 20 of them in Andhra, the BJP finished fifth, sixth or seventh.
Nearly half of these 133 seats – 59 – fell in southern states, where the BJP has historically had little presence. This explains the BJP’s special focus in the area in the run-up to these elections.
In terms of its vote shares in the states, between 2014 and 2019, the BJP saw a rise in 22 states and UTs, and fall in 12.
Overall, the party’s vote share rose from 31.3% in 2014 to 37.7% in 2019. In 2019, it won more than 50% of the votes in 14 states and UTs, compared to 7 in 2014.
A comparison of vote shares in 2014 and 2019 shows that the BJP saw the biggest gains in Tripura (43.8%-point increase in vote share), followed by West Bengal (23.6%-points), Haryana (23.4%-points) and Manipur (22.4%-points). The increase in vote share was more than 20%-points in four states, and more than 10%-points in seven states and the UT of Delhi.
Among the states and UTs where its vote share fell were Arunachal Pradesh (15.5%-point decline), Daman and Diu (10.9%-points), and Dadra and Nagar Haveli (8.2%-points). The BJP’s vote share fell in Bihar, too, likely because it fought in an alliance with the JD(U). Besides a dip of 7.2%-points in Himachal Pradesh, its vote share losses were largely restricted to states with very few seats and those where it has a limited presence, including Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
Since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there have been Assembly elections in 30 states and UTs. Over the course of the state elections in the past five years, the BJP has lost power in 4 Assemblies, gained 3 and held 12, including some with coalition governments.
Despite losing out in several states, including Maharashtra and Bihar, in the polls, the party has managed to return to power after the sitting governments collapsed. As things stand, with the return of the JD(U) into the NDA fold last month, the BJP and its allies rule 18 states and UTs going into the general elections.
In terms of vote shares at the state level, the BJP has a considerable presence across the country. In the polls held since 2019, the BJP has secured at least 20% of the vote share in 19 states and UTs and more than 40% in 9.
Compared to the state elections held prior to 2019, the BJP saw its vote share increase in 20 states and UTs and decrease in 10. The biggest increase was recorded in Bengal, where its vote share rose from 10.3% in 2016 to 38% in 2021 – a fact that the ruling TMC is very well aware of. The biggest decline was in Himachal Pradesh, from 49.2% in 2017 when it won the polls to 43% in 2022, when the state became one of the few the BJP lost to the Congress.
