2024 a year of crucial elections: How NDA and INDIA measure up against each other

Lok Sabha

In 2019, the BJP won a majority on its own with 303 seats, up from 282 in 2014. Back then, the party swept the Hindi belt and secured most seats in the Northeast though it was limited to Karnataka in the south. Meanwhile, the Congress won just 52 seats.

In 2019, the BJP-led NDA had 332 MPs and the current 28 members of the INDIA alliance bagged 144. But since 2019, the NDA’s composition has undergone major changes as it lost regional parties such as the AIADMK, JD(U), and Akali Dal.

The current composition of the 543-member Lower House, taking the present-day members of each alliance group, shows that the NDA, with 319 MPs, is comfortably ahead of the INDIA bloc which has 139 MPs. The current NDA members got a combined vote share of about 40% in 2019 while INDIA parties got 35% of the votes.

While the BJP at present accounts for 290 MPs in the NDA — at least 12 of them gave up their seats to contest the recent state elections — its largest partner is the Shiv Sena, led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, with 13 MPs.

The INDIA bloc’s MPs are much more spread out across the parties. While the Congress still makes up the largest group with 48 MPs at present, major regional parties such as the DMK (24 MPs), Trinamool Congress (22 MPs), and JD(U) (16 MPs) have a sizeable presence in the bloc.

The NDA’s members are spread across the country, barring the South, the INDIA bloc is dominant in a handful of states such as Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, and Bihar.

Rajya Sabha

In the Rajya Sabha too, the BJP and the Congress are the largest parties in their respective alliances, with 93 MPs for the former and 30 for the latter.

But their combined seat tallies among the 238 elected members in the House are much closer. The NDA at present has 104 MPs and the INDIA bloc has 94.

While the BJP’s largest partner in the Rajya Sabha is Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction with three MPs, the Congress can count on the TMC’s 13 MPs, and AAP and DMK’s 10 MPs each as among its partners.

In 2023, 10 new Rajya Sabha members were elected, of whom five each are from the BJP and TMC. In 2024, 65 Rajya Sabha members will be elected in July and August. Of these 65 seats up for election, the BJP holds 29, the Congress 11, the TMC four, the AAP, SP and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) three each, and the BJD, JD(U) and RJD two each.

State legislatures

Nine states held Assembly elections this year, with the government changing hands in five. While the BJP won in four states, the Congress won in two, and the regional parties took the remaining three.

With its landslide win in Madhya Pradesh, and having flipped Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the national-level NDA members are now in power in 18 states and Union Territories. The INDIA bloc is in power in 10 states and UTs, while the YSRCP and BJD, which are not officially part of either NDA or INDIA, hold Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, respectively.

In the state Assemblies, of the total 4,123 MLAs, 1,653 are from the INDIA bloc and 1,791 are from the NDA parties. In the six states that have Legislative Councils, of the 426 MLCs 105 are from the INDIA bloc parties and 184 belong to the NDA.

In terms of MLAs, the INDIA bloc’s largest presence is in West Bengal, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab. The NDA, meanwhile, is dominant in some of the most populous states, including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

In 2024, four states – Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim – will hold simultaneous Assembly elections with the Lok Sabha polls. Towards the end of the year, the Assemblies in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand will go to polls.

In Andhra Pradesh, neither bloc has any seats in the current Assembly, which is dominated by the ruling YSRCP and the Telugu Desam Party. In Odisha too, the NDA and INDIA bloc are minor players with the BJD in power. In Sikkim, the INDIA bloc has no presence with NDA members holding 31 of the 32 Assembly seats, while in the 60-member Arunachal Assembly, the INDIA bloc has just four MLAs compared to the NDA’s 49.

Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand though, will likely see direct contests between the NDA and INDIA. In Haryana’s 90-member Assembly, the ruling NDA has 52 MLAs and the Congress has 32. In Maharashtra, the ruling NDA has 189 of 288 MLAs, while the INDIA bloc has 81. Jharkhand is the only Assembly where the INDIA bloc has the advantage with 48 MLAs compared to the NDA’s 29 in the 81-member House.