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Journalism of Courage
Global trade should expand by arobust 7.5 per cent in 2004, providing the world economy does not falter, after registering stronger than expected growth of 4.5 percent last year, the World Trade Organisation said on Monday.
The Geneva-based trade body had been forecasting growth in merchandise trade of only around 3.0 percent last year, little changed on 2002’s 2.5 percent, after the SARS epidemic amongst other factors led to a sluggish start to the year. ‘‘Clearly, the improved economic situation in the United States and Asia has given an important boost to world trade,’’ WTO Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi said.
China, which jumped three places to become the world’s third largest importer behind the US and Germany, saw a 35 per cent rise in exports in nominal terms, which is without adjusting for price changes, and a 40 per cent leap in imports, compared with the previous year, the WTO said.
The world economy was seen maintaining in the current year the momentum it had picked up over the last half of 2003, with global gross domestic product seen rising to 3.7 per cent from 2.5 per cent in 2003, the WTO said.
Amongst the world’s 30 richest states, trade in goods and services had expanded at close to 9.0 percent over the last half of 2003, and ‘‘partial information’’ from the early part of this year indicated ‘‘the momentum of trade growth remained strong.’’
Amongst the threats to growth, the WTO listed the ‘‘unsustainable’’ size over the medium term of the US trade deficit, a possible faltering in western European demand and the risk that oil prices would not fall as predicted.
