Tags:
Journalism of Courage
LONDON, MAY 13: A pattern has developed in the sadly mis-named “warm-up” matches for the World Cup, which suggest it may well become three tournaments in one.
With the weather cold and damp it’s been more like a series of cool-down matches as the white ball has moved around, sometimes alarmingly and kept any of the renowned batsmen from getting “hot”. This may well dictate a more cautious approach in the first 15 overs, at least in the qualifying rounds. This is where the shrewd captains and the adaptable teams will prosper; they will set their tactics for the early matches, then if the weather changes, they will revise the game plan for the highly competitive “Super Six” stage. The four teams that qualify for the knockout section of the tournament may then have to draw up different plans for the final assault on the trophy. Watching these tactical battles evolve, should provide a fascinating sideshow to the main game of winning the trophy.
Weeks ago, players were talking about a more conservative approach in the first 15 overs, with a view to keeping wickets intact and then launching an assault in the final 10 to 15 overs. This may well prove to be a sensible approach, along with setting the sights on a score of around 240 rather than 280 and then looking for early wickets while the new ball is performing its tricks. A plan like this will suit teams with a long batting line-up and South Africa and Australia fit this description perfectly.
The defending champions Sri Lanka also fall into this category, but their pace bowling is not as strong as the other two teams and their targets will be more easily overhauled.
Pakistan’s batting has a more solid look lately, hence their better results. They are not quite as strong in batting as South Africa and Australia, but they have the best all-round attack in the competition and so opponents will have difficulty with slightly lower targets. India has an attack that is well suited to English conditions but as always, they depend heavily on Sachin Tendulkar to post the more difficult targets. The West Indies are in a similar proposition, with two champion pace bowlers who are likely to be a handful and a high-class stroke maker who is capable of playing a match-winning innings.
However, the West Indies support players are not as good as India’s and they are fortunate to be in the weaker group, where they will battle with New Zealand for the third qualifying spot. New Zealand is a steady side with no outstanding players in either category, so they will rely heavily on Chris Cairns and Stephen Fleming for inspiration in the crucial matches. There is much talk about England having the home advantage and this has picked up a few more supporters (or wishful thinkers) as the cold, damp conditions play havoc with the warm-up matches.
In reality, England is more likely to be weighed down by expectancy and to be found wanting in tight matches because of a rather rigid tactical approach. If they don’t beat Sri Lanka in the opening encounter, then their last game of the qualifying round against India will be a must if they hope to continue in the tournament. If you’re looking for a dark horse to make the Super Six stage, then Zimbabwe will give you a good run for your money. They have a lot of players who are reasonable batsmen and if Heath Streak and Eddo Brandes perform well, their support bowlers will find the job of containment easier. In the end, the inability to believe enough in themselves will probably halt their progress, but they could cause some heartache along the way.
Despite all the conjecture after a few early skirmishes, I still think the winner will come from South Africa, Australia or Pakistan. However, if either India or the West Indies make it through to the knock-out stage, they could spring a surprise because of the individual brilliance of Tendulkar or Brian Lara. If I was forced to pick one team it would be South Africa at this stage, but I have a sneaking feeling this tournament is going to be like the English weather — unpredictable.
