Tags:
Journalism of Courage
The Indian Express-NDTV exit poll shows that N. Chandrababu Naidu may be voted out as chief minister of Andhra Pradesh while Naveen Patnaik is likely to get a second term in Orissa. However, indications from the poll are unclear in Karnataka and the election is too close to call.
In Andhra Pradesh, the exit poll results suggest the nine-year run of TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu is likely to end and the state will see a Congress-TRS government in Hyderabad by the middle of May. The exit poll indicates a significant swing away from the TDP-BJP alliance in Phase I, which mainly covered Telengana. There was a hope among the backers of the TDP-BJP combine that there would be a backlash in coastal Andhra and Rayalseema regions. However, the backlash has failed to materialise and the strong anti-incumbency wave is likely to result in a rout for the ruling party in these regions as well.
According to the poll, the Congress-TRS alliance is likely to get 180-205 seats in the 294-member Assembly while the TDP-BJP combine will be left with 80-105 seats. In Orissa, the results of the second round of the exit polls reinforce those of the first. Both suggest that Naveen Patnaik will be back in the saddle. According to the poll, the BJD-BJP alliance is likely to get 90-105 seats in the 147-strong House while the Congress is likely to get 35-45 seats. The only question that now remains is whether the ruling combine will secure a two-thirds majority in the Vidhan Sabha.
But the picture is very unclear in Karnataka. While it is likely that the Congress will be routed in Karnataka in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is not doing nearly as well in the Vidhan Sabha elections. The indications from the exit polls are very unclear and it is not possible to ‘call’ the election in favour of either party or indicate whether it will be a hung Vidhan Sabha.
METHODOLOGY: The Indian Express and New Delhi Television (NDTV) have jointly commissioned A C Nielsen, a leading market research agency, to conduct fieldwork for a series of exit polls to measure the voting intentions of the electorate. The exit polls are being conducted in four phases—to correspond with the four phases of the elections. Voting for each of the three Vidhan Sabhas has been completed. But some words of caution. All polls—opinion and exit—are subject to margins of error. The sampling error in this poll ranges across states, with the highest range of error not exceeding 3 per cent.
