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Journalism of Courage
The result of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats will set the stage for political churning in the state where Assembly elections are scheduled for later this year. Though the BJP managed to split the NCP and the Shiv Sena in the past two years, perceptibly weakening the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, the ticket distribution process was far from being a smooth-sailing process. Things to watch out for:
A test for BJP
The split of parties coupled with the sharp Maratha versus OBC polarisation will be decisive as far as the BJP’s performance goes. The ruling Mahayuti alliance has set an ambitious target of winning 45 seats, but has had to deal with challenges such as agrarian distress in the run-up to the polls. In 2019, the BJP won 23 of the 25 seats it contested in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, which won 18 seats. To retain the role of “big brother” in its new alliance, it will have to retain its seat share.
Who will be ‘real’ Sena?
Though CM Eknath Shinde’s party has been recognised by the EC as the Shiv Sena, the outcome on Tuesday will be decisive in proving which of the two Sena parties can lay claim to the undivided party’s legacy. The two factions of Shiv Sena are in direct contest in 13 constituencies.
Tough test for Pawar
The results will also decide the fate of NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar whose position was left weakened after the coup by his nephew and Deputy CM Ajit Pawar. In Baramati, Pawar’s daughter and incumbent MP Supriya Sule is up against Ajit’s wife Sunetra and its result will determine public perception of who the real NCP boss is.
All eyes will be on the Marathwada region, where the Maratha agitation led by activist Manoj Jarange-Patil was the most intense. Jarange-Patil’s clarion call to the community to teach the “betrayers of Marathas” a lesson — directed at Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis — has the potential to affect the BJP’s chances. On the other hand, the ruling alliance must also ensure its OBC voter base, which is seemingly against Marathas following the stir and the government’s decision to grant reservation to the community, is not eroded. The alliance that ensures this balance is likely to emerge on top.
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