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Cyclone Aila-struck south west monsoon,which has stopped in the tracks over Konkan region of Maharashtra,is expected to surge further around Thursday when it gets the necessary push from a cyclonic circulation over east central Bay of Bengal.
The weather office said that current analysis and numerical prediction models showed that the southwest monsoon will not advance further during the next three days.
“However,the monsoon surge is likely to strengthen thereafter with the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over east-central Bay of Bengal around June 18,2009,” the India Meteorological Department said.
The annual seasonal rains had reached Ratnagiri on the western coast and Paradip on the eastern coast till June seven and have not advanced further since.
Under normal conditions,monsoon should have reached Mumbai by June 10,2009,and covered entire Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh by Monday.
The weather office has warned of isolated heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa,coastal Karnataka,Kerala,Lakshadweep,and Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next two days.
The devastating cyclone Aila,which struck parts of Orissa and West Bengal on May 25,sucked away moisture from the monsoon system and weakened it leading to delay in covering the country.
Monsoon had set in over Kerala on May 23,a week before its normal onset date.
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