Above-normal temperatures, more heatwave days this summer: IMD

IMD Director General Mryutyunjay Mohapatra said above-normal heatwave days are likely in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and northern parts of Karnataka.

“Climatologically, heatwaves over these regions can last for four-seven days but we expect episodes that can prolong to 10-11 days, especially over Odisha, Jharkhand, east Uttar Pradesh, this summer season,” he said.

From April 10 till the end of the month, the Northeast states are likely to see heavy rainfall, which can lead to floods and landslides. In addition, Kerala and south interior Karnataka, too, will receive above-normal rainfall and thunderstorms accompanied by lightning, the IMD said. “The local administration needs to remain alert and prepared,” Mohapatra said.

The summer season will start on a warm note in Gujarat, Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and southern Madhya Pradesh, where day temperatures will remain exceptionally above normal in April. The nights are also likely to remain warmer than usual over the entire country, barring Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Northeast India.

“Heatwave extending up to a week could be experienced during April over eastern India, mainly over Odisha,” the IMD said.

Climatologically, heatwaves in April are common over eastern India regions covering Jharkhand, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal as well as Vidarbha in Maharashtra and Gujarat, and last for one to three days. But this April, chances of extended heatwave episodes are forecast.

The all-India temperatures this March remained within normal or below-normal range, except over parts of central India and southern peninsular India, the IMD said. Above-normal heatwave days (three to five days) prevailed over parts of Gujarat and Odisha along with some pockets of Vidarbha in Maharashtra.

Keeping the temperatures in check were the intermittent rainfall or snowfall events that affected Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and many parts of Northeast India.

Meanwhile, with the continuing La Nina conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Mohapatra ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the Monsoon season this year.

“The models suggest that sea surface temperatures will remain close to normal, that is El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during summer and early monsoon season. The chances of El Nino have been ruled out. During the summer season, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions will continue to remain neutral. During the Monsoon, it may remain neutral or turn into the negative phase,” Mohapatra said.

The IMD will release the first stage long range monsoon forecast for the year in a fortnight.