End coronavirus lockdown in phased manner: exit strategy paper by railway institute

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The paper has been sent to the Railway Board. It has been also shared with NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar, it is learnt.

Instead of a one-size-fits-all exit strategy, the paper proposes to scientifically identify districts with higher COVID-19 vulnerability, and isolate them from the rest of the country, and allow economic activity to resume after the 21-day nationwide lockdown.

For instance, states classified as ones with “low vulnerability” — those with up to five active COVID-19 cases, no new reported case in the last seven days; or where the density of active cases is .01 per million population, and where cases are restricted to just one district minus any major urban centre — are proposed to be brought back to normalcy as far as possible, with certain do’s and don’ts.

For example, in low-risk areas, no permission may be required to operate essential services, inter-state passenger travel can be permitted in railways, roadways and waterways, provided that either the transit route or the destination does not involve high-risk places.

Domestic airline services can operate among these places, it suggests. “Those districts which had a history of positive COVID-19 cases and have not reported any new cases for the past 28 days can be permitted for inter-district movement along with the rest of the state,” says the plan.

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It proposes public transport to be run with half capacity, while industries, factories, mines can be opened in unaffected districts, provided labour and employees of such establishments are available within the state and no inter-state movement of labour in involved.

“To facilitate agricultural harvest, transport of labourers from unaffected districts to the necessary destinations should be facilitated by the State,” it says. It says places of worship can be opened in low-risk areas provided mass congregation is avoided.

“Economic activity cannot be suspended forever. So based on the spread of cases, we see there are many areas where economic activities can happen,” Rishi Raghav, an Indian Railway Traffic Service officer of 2018 batch undergoing training at IRITM, and one of the authors of the strategy paper, told The Indian Express.

His coauthors, and batchmates in the institute, are Sagar Chahar, a doctor, and Desai Neha Diwakar, a lawyer.

“We took the spread of cases and the health protocol into consideration. Even within states there are activities that can be opened. Even important exams can be undertaken going with this exit plan,” said Raghav, who has a Masters degree in City and Regional Planning from Georgia Tech, Atlanta, USA.

“When Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to the CMs, he asked them to work out a staggered exit strategy. We took it up as an opportunity. This paper is a result of that,” IRITM director A P Singh said.

The paper also proposes opening of international flights even in high-risk states but recommends that incoming passengers be kept in quarantine for a week.

For low-risk states, it proposes that courts can function normally with a revision of time and more hearing dates so that tjhere are no gatherings.

However, for high-risk areas, the plan is stringent, even though some careful leeway has been allowed that the lockdown does not permit. The states are divided into four categories.

For states with 50 or more COVID-19 patients, or those with cases spread across 75 per cent of the districts in big states, or those where every million population has at least two cases are categories as State-4 — marked “Extreme Vulnerability”, and so on.

In these states, inter-state passenger movement is proposed to be prohibited. The elderly are to stay home, and all essentials delivered to them. In such states, districts with active cases are to be “isolated” and movement to and from such districts with the state are to be barred too, the paper suggests.

“Industries, factories, mines can be opened (in unaffected districts), provided labour and employees of such establishments are available locally and no inter-district movement of labour is required to facilitate the functioning of such establishments,” the plan says.

States with fewer active cases of COVID-19, however, may be given leeway that seek to bring economic activities back to as normal as possible.

For example, in states with number of active COVID-19 cases between 20 and 49, classified as Stage-3 or “high vulnerability”, it is proposed to open domestic airlines between such states and lower-risk areas minus on-board catering when the destination or origin is such “high vulnerability” state.

Road, rail and waterway travel between states, however, has been proposed to be barred for affected districts in these states. “In the rest of the state, inter-district movement can be allowed (including roadways, railways, airways, waterways). Passenger boarding/alighting must not be allowed in affected districts,” the plan proposes.

Urban transit systems such as shared auto-rickshaws, buses, metros, etc, in these places are to be shut, the paper proposes.

There is also a fifth category termed Stage-0. “If the state does not satisfy any of the… criteria and all the past active cases have been resolved before a period of 21 days, it will indicate a scenario of ‘zero’ cases where the State being classified as Stage-0,” it says.

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