India-Maldives ties: Amid row, why the two countries need each other and what is at stake

The latest trigger has been undiplomatic words used by ministers in Muizzu’s cabinet against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in particular and Indians in general. Male has moved to control the damage by sacking all the three leaders who made the disparaging remarks. In India, calls are growing louder for boycotting Maldives as a tourist destination.

Maldives, Lakshadweep, Sri Lanka, and Southern India. (Google Maps)

But lost in the noise are three key questions:

First, what’s at stake?

At stake is the diplomatic and political relationship between the two countries, painstakingly built over the last about six decades.

After the British relinquished control of the islands in 1965, India established diplomatic ties. While there was no diplomatic mission in Male earlier — it was run by the Indian High Commission in Colombo till 1978 — since 1980, India has had an ambassadorial representative in the islands.

After the democratic transition took place in 2008, India has built deep relationships with all relevant stakeholders — players in politics, military, business, and civil society — despite the change in governments.

This was a work of years: of networking with the local population, and building India as the first destination of choice for most Maldivians — for education and medical reasons.

Second, why does India need the Maldives?

Just one look at the world map tells you the strategic location and the significance of the island nation.

Location and maritime security: Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India (barely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles from India’s West coast), and its location at the hub of commercial sea-lanes running through the Indian Ocean (particularly the 8° N and 1 ½° N channels) imbues it with significant strategic importance to India. Maldives is one of the key elements in India’s maritime security calculus. The security scenario in India’s periphery in the Indian Ocean is very much linked to the maritime strength of Maldives.

Defence: This is the reason why India invests on Maldives’ security by training its defence forces. Estimates suggest that almost 70 per cent of Maldives’ defence training is done by India — either on the islands or in India’s elite military academies.

India has trained over 1,500 Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) personnel in the past 10 years. The Indian Navy has given aircraft and choppers to the Maldivian defence forces for aerial surveillance, and have trained their personnel on how to land vertically in the islands.

India also wants to set up a coastal radar system in Maldives, with a view to keep an eye on the activities in the Indian Ocean.

China: The Chinese have also worked their way in, in the past 15 years. Maldives opened its embassy in that country in 2009, and China opened its embassy as recently as 2011. But with investments into projects, especially since President Xi Jinping came to power and pushed the Belt and Road Initiative, Male has been actively wooed by the Chinese.

India is obviously concerned at the expanding Chinese footprint there. While Mohamed Nasheed first started the engagement with China, Abdulla Yameen took it up several notches during his term from 2013-2018. Muizzu, who was a minister in Yameen’s government, is seen as carrying forward his mentor’s policies.

So, from a purely strategic perspective, India needs Maldives on its side to secure its maritime periphery, keep an eye on the Indian Ocean, and check the influence of China in its neighbourhood.

Now, the third question is: why does Maldives need India?

Daily needs: India supplies Maldives with its everyday essentials: rice, spices, fruits, vegetables, poultry — basically every possible edible item in the country, except, of course, seafood, which Maldives has in plenty.

It supplies medicines — not just everyday medicines, but all critical care and life-saving drugs.

India also supplies basic items to build infrastructure in Maldives — cement, rock boulders, and basically anything one needs to build a house or a bridge or a school or a hospital. In fact, one of the major multi-speciality hospitals in Maldives has been built by India, the 300-bed Indira Gandhi Memorial hospital.

Education: India has been the education provider for Maldivians. Since the country has a small population base and the islands are isolated and spread out, there are no major educational institutions. So, every year, Maldivian students flock to Indian higher educational institutions. Some come to India’s boarding schools as well. The government gives out scholarships for Maldivian students to study in India.

Economic dependence: Maldives is dependent on India for most items, and hence India is among its top trading partners. Of the Rs 50 crore total trade between India and Maldives in 2022, Rs 49 crore was India’s exports to Maldives. India emerged as Maldives’ second largest trade partner in 2022.

Help during disasters: India has been the main pillar of help for Maldives in times of crisis and distress.

When a tsunami struck the islands in 2004, India was the first to send in help. Again, in 2014, when Male suddenly had a drinking water crisis as the major desalination plant broke down, India overnight airlifted drinking water to the islands. During the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent essential medicines, masks, gloves, PPE kits and vaccines for the island country.

Security provider: When there was a coup attempt in 1988 against then President Abdul Gayoom, India sent in troops to fight the combatants.

Indian Navy and the Maldivian Navy conduct joint exercises and Indian assets are always in readiness in the vicinity to protect the island nation.

In this overall context, it is in the interest of both New Delhi and Male to dial down the current tensions, by assuaging each other’s concerns and cooperating on what matters most for both sides.