Imphal Valley protests: Can AFSPA and giving the Army a free hand help?

Parts of the Imphal Valley are under curfew after widespread arson and attacks on the homes of politicians, as ripples of the ongoing violence in the western Jiribam district reached the capital on Saturday. Jiribam has been tense since six members of a Meitei family went missing from a relief camp some days ago. Several bodies have since been found in the Barak river.

What is AFSPA?

AFSPA, which traces its roots to a colonial statute introduced in response to the Quit India Movement in 1942, was retained in independent India. The law was first brought as an ordinance, and then notified as an Act in 1958. Over the years, AFSPA has been imposed in the Northeast, Jammu and Kashmir, and Punjab (during the years of militancy). It remains in force in parts of Nagaland, Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, and the entirety of J&K.

AFSPA gives sweeping powers to the armed forces by providing military personnel blanket immunity for a range of actions. It allows the military to open fire — and even cause death — against any person breaking the law or carrying arms and ammunition. It also gives them the power to arrest individuals and search premises without warrants on the basis of “reasonable suspicion”.

There can be no legal proceedings against armed forces personnel for these actions without prior approval from the Centre. AFSPA can be imposed by the Centre or the Governor of a state, on the entire state or parts of it, after these areas are declared “disturbed’’ under Section 3 of the Act.

What is AFSPA’s history in Manipur?

AFSPA came to the Northeast in the 1950s in the wake of the Naga movement, and the creation of the Naga National Council (NNC).

In Manipur, it was imposed in 1958 in the three Naga-dominated districts of Senapati, Tamenglong, and Ukhrul, where the secessionist NNC was active. It was imposed in the 1960s in the Kuki-Zomi dominated district of Churachandpur, which was under the sway of the Mizo insurgent movement, and extended to the rest of the state in 1979, when groups in the Meitei-dominated Imphal Valley began an armed insurgency.

The statute has been controversial, with numerous allegations of excesses by the armed forces. The Malom massacre in 2000, and the killing and alleged rape of Thangjam Manorama led to its subsequent removal from the Imphal municipal area.

In 2000, Manipuri activist Irom Sharmila began what would become a 16-year-long hunger strike against AFSPA. In 2012, the Extrajudicial Execution Victim Families Association of Manipur filed a case in the Supreme Court, alleging the security forces carried out 1,528 fake encounters between 1979 and 2012. The CBI is probing 94 such killings.

AFSPA was lifted from 15 police station areas in the Imphal Valley in 2022, and in the remaining four in 2023. It remains in force in other parts of the state.

Why has AFSPA been reimposed?

The reimposition of AFSPA in six police stations in the Valley by the Centre is informed by a pattern of violence from Meitei and Kuki armed groups in these areas, and a push by the Army for statutory protection in order to effectively control the unrest, sources have told The Indian Express.

Barring Jiribam, all the police station areas where AFSPA has been reimposed — Sekmai, Lamsang, Lamlai, Leimakhong, and Moirang — lie on the outer fringes of the Valley, next to the hills. Following the initial burst of violence in May 2023, and the subsequent withdrawal of Kukis to the hills and Meiteis to the Valley, most of the violence has occurred in these areas on the fringes.

Despite the deployment of central armed police forces (CAPF) personnel and Indian Army soldiers in these so-called “buffer” zones, the Manipur administration has been unable to stem the violence. Sources said the Army is reluctant to unleash its full force without statutory protection.“You have to understand that the Manipur administration is currently deeply divided on ethnic lines. Even bona fide actions can lead to the registration of cases against officers. It is difficult for the Army to operate with full freedom under such circumstances,” an Army officer posted in Manipur said.

What Impact will AFSPA have?

While the AFSPA will indeed grant greater freedom to the Army to use force, much will depend on the political will of the government to act — and to deal with the fallouts of strong action. Unlike in most conflict areas, the armed forces in Manipur are currently not only fighting militant groups but also a civil society that is armed to the teeth, thanks in no small measure to weapons looted from police armouries.

The government will be wary of the history of AFSPA in the Northeast, where alleged excesses by the armed forces (like in the early years of the Naga insurgency) only ended up strengthening insurgent movements. The ongoing ethnic violence has already provided a second wind to Meitei militant groups such as the PLA and the UNLF, which had been pushed out of the state in the past decade.

“With or without AFSPA, if the forces know they have the government’s backing, they will act. The recent attack on the CRPF camp in Jiribam is an example. When the forces needed to fire, they did, and 10 suspected militants are dead. There was no AFSPA there then,” a senior Manipur security establishment officer told The Indian Express.

Another officer, however, said the move may have some psychological impact. “It may create some fear among armed miscreants. But all will now depend upon how the Army takes it forward,” the officer said.

Can tough action by the Army lead to an end to the conflict in Manipur?

In any conflict, reducing violence is a prerequisite to bring the warring factions to the negotiating table. But in a state with a long history of ethnic conflict, and competing political demands, more will need to be done.

The government will have to handle the political implications of its decision to impose AFSPA, something not likely to enthuse the Meitei population that views the Assam Rifles (which is under the Army’s operational control) with suspicion. The move may appear as an olive branch to the hill tribes who have long demanded AFSPA in the Valley.

So far, the government’s intermittent efforts to start talks have not yielded results. While it did manage to bring Meitei and Kuki leaders under the same roof in Delhi last month, it failed to initiate a conversation.

That the armed groups on both sides have become veritable states within the state has not helped. In January, armed Meitei militia Arambai Tenggol held an “Assembly” session at Kangla Fort in Imphal, where MLAs were beaten and threatened. The Centre’s effort to stop the meeting by sending its Northeast advisor to negotiate with Tenggol chief Korounganba Khuman only boosted his profile and brought no gains for the government.