© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
Tags:
Journalism of Courage
Israel has claimed that 99% of the more than 300 missiles and drones launched by Iran against the Zionist country over the weekend were intercepted.
On the surface, this was a “significant strategic success” for Israel, as Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari said. But this success came at a significant economic cost, which will recur in the event of more or bigger Iranian attacks. Here’s the math.
According to the IDF, Iran launched 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and around 170 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). Only a few ballistic missiles got through Israel’s defences, and caused minor damage to the Nevatim air base in southern Israel.
| Table 1: The difference between cruise and ballistic missiles | ||
| Cruise missiles | Ballistic missiles | |
| Operation | Powered throughout flight, manoeuvrable | Powered only in the first phase of flight, not manoeuvrable |
| Range | Typically 1,000 km, can be as much as 4000 km | From <1,000 km to >10,000 km, missiles are classified according to range |
| Trajectory | Low altitude, level trajectory — hard to detect | High altitude, parabolic trajectory — hard to detect |
| Precision | High, up to a few metres — fit for small, moving targets | Low precision, roughly a few 100 m — fit for larger, stationary targets |
| Speed | Subsonic (<Mach 1) to hypersonic (>Mach 5) — slower than ballistic missiles, possible to intercept | Can hit targets at >25,000 km/h or >Mach 20 — very fast, extremely hard to intercept even with state of art technology |
|
Source: Brahmos Aerospace, Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation |
||
The rest were stopped by Israeli air defence, which comprises multiple systems such as the Iron Dome, Arrow interceptors, Patriot missiles, and advanced fighter jets — operated by the IDF and allies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.
These systems are designed for specific threats and are integrated to work in tandem. For instance, the US-developed Arrow is a family of anti-ballistic missile interceptors which can hit intermediate range ballistic missiles either within (Arrow 2) or beyond (Arrow 3) the Earth’s atmosphere. The Iron Dome, on the other hand, shoot down short-range rockets, UAVs, and other small aircraft.
Israel’s remarkably capable air defence system is also very expensive, especially when compared to the targets it seeks to shoot down.
For instance, while each of the Russian-made Katyusha rockets that Hamas and Hezbollah routinely fire into Israel costs about $300, each of the Tamir missiles that the Iron Dome uses to intercept them costs between $20,000-$100,000, according to a report by the Air & Space Forces Magazine. Add to this the fact that multiple Tamir missiles may be fired at each incoming projectile to ensure success, and the cost of interception balloons.
Yehoshua Kalisky, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based think tank Institute for National Security Studies, told The Wall Street Journal that Israel spent more than 2.1 billion Israeli shekels (over $550 million) to repel the Iranian barrage during the course of a single night. The Israel-based news website Ynet News estimated the cost at double that — more than $1 billion.
“If we’re talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs, which we actually bring down mainly with airplanes — then add up the costs — $3.5 million for an Arrow missile, $1 million for a David’s Sling, such and such costs for airplanes… [we get] an order of magnitude of 4-5 billion shekels (more than $1.3 billion),” Brig Gen Reem Aminoach, former financial adviser to the IDF chief of staff, told Ynet News.
By contrast, Iranian ballistic missiles cost around $100,000 each, and its Shahed drones only $20,000-$50,000 each, according to reports by The Guardian. Experts have calculated the cost of the attack for Iran at $100-$200 million — perhaps five to ten times less than what Israel spent to repel it.
The Washington Post reported that the US estimates Iran’s stockpile to have at least 3,000 ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers — which means the country can carry out an attack like the one on Saturday at least 10 times over.
Repelling these potential attacks will entail a huge drain on Israel’s finances, and stretch the missile production capabilities of the country and its allies. Experts have noted that industrial specialisation and the stress on the quality of defence equipment has meant that it could take two years or more to deliver orders for some Western air-defence interceptors.
| Table 2: Iran’s HESA Shahed 136 — cheap but effective | |
| Length | 3.5 m |
| Wingspan | 2.5 m |
| Weight | 200 kg |
| Warhead size | ≈ 50 kg |
| Range | 2,500 km |
| Top speed | 185 kmph |
| Operation | Suicide attacks, most often in large swarms |
| Cost of production | $20,000-$50,000 per drone |
|
Source: The Washington Post |
|
This problem has been visible in Ukraine. According to The Wall Street Journal, over the past two years, Russia has fired more than 2,000 missiles and 5,500 Iranian Shahed drones at Ukraine, cashing in on falling Ukrainian interception rates as the country runs out of expensive Western supplied missiles.
Tom Karako, director of the Washington DC-based Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told The Washington Post that “the number of munitions it took to repel the [recent Iranian] attack was enormous, costly and could be difficult to replicate”.
At a press conference, Chrise Brose, chief strategy officer at the American defence technology company Anduril Industries, said: “You can’t kill cheap drones if you don’t have cheap interceptors.”
To address the asymmetry in costs, countries are now testing a different form of air defence, based on microwave and laser beams, which could, in theory, fire indefinitely as long as their power source is intact. Once mass production begins, they will also be much cheaper than currently available systems.
In January, the UK military tested a new laser weapon dubbed ‘DragonFire’. This experimental system was developed for about $40 million, and consumes energy worth only $13 to down a drone, the UK government has said.
“This type of cutting-edge weaponry has the potential to revolutionise the battlespace by reducing the reliance on expensive ammunition, while also lowering the risk of collateral damage,” UK defence secretary Grant Shapps said in January.
Other countries such as the US, China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan too are developing similar weapons. In India, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is reported to be testing a prototype of its DURGA-2 (Directionally Unrestricted Ray Gun Array) system.
However, this technology is not battle-tested, and questions have been raised regarding their effective range and accuracy. They also require a steady source of energy on the battlefield.
