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Journalism of Courage
In May 2023, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had described his then Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto Zardari as a “promoter, justifier, and a spokesperson of a terrorism industry, which is the mainstay of Pakistan”.
“Victims of terrorism do not sit together with perpetrators of terrorism to discuss terrorism… Let’s be very, very clear on this… Pakistan’s credibility is depleting even faster than its forex reserves,” Jaishankar said at a press conference.
In media interactions, Bilawal, who was in India for a meeting of foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), had sought to turn the spotlight to bilateral issues — playing the victim card, and raising the issue of Article 370 and Jammu and Kashmir.
After Jaishankar in his opening remarks to the SCO meeting referred to cross-border terrorism and called for blocking channels for terror financing, Bilawal had responded: “Let’s not get caught up in weaponising terrorism for diplomatic point-scoring.”
A year and five months after that verbal faceoff in Goa, Jaishankar will travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting on October 15-16. Bilawal is no longer foreign minister of Pakistan, but his party supports the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
In national elections held in February, candidates affiliated to Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won a large number of seats. In recent weeks, the PTI has ratcheted up its rhetoric and protests against the government.
In India, a reduced mandate for the BJP in this year’s Lok Sabha election has increased the importance of its coalition partners in the government. These parties have not, however, spelt out their position on Pakistan — and the BJP remains firmly in charge of India’s foreign and security policy.
For New Delhi, the challenge emanating from China — with which India has been in a border standoff since May 2020 — is of much greater consequence. But the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir, which has seen a spate of terror attacks against the security forces especially in the Jammu region, remains delicate.
Jaishankar has made it clear that he will be in Islamabad for the SCO meeting, a “multilateral event”, and not on a bilateral visit to Pakistan. “I am going there to be a good member of the SCO. Since I am a courteous and civil person, I will behave myself accordingly,” he said earlier this month.
The SCO Council of Heads of Government is the second-highest body in the grouping after the Council of Heads of State, the highest body (whose meetings are attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, President Xi Jinping, President Vladimir Putin, etc.).
Since 2017, when India became a full member of the SCO, New Delhi has been represented at the Council of Heads of Government at the level of the Minister for External Affairs or Defence. Jaishankar participated in the Council of Heads of Government summit in Bishkek last year. Earlier summits have been attended by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh or former External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj. In 2020, when India hosted the SCO Heads of Government-level meeting virtually, Pakistan was represented by the Parliamentary Secretary for foreign affairs.
While Jaishankar is not expected to have very meaningful bilateral meetings in Islamabad, in an India-Pakistan context, a multilateral visit too carries possibilities. On October 5, the External Affairs Minister said he was “planning” for his visit to Pakistan. “In my business, you plan for everything that you are going to do, and for a lot of things that you are not going to do, and which could happen also, you plan for that as well,” he said.
Prime Minister Modi began his term in 2014 by inviting then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his swearing-in. In December 2015, the late Sushma Swaraj travelled to Pakistan and restarted the comprehensive bilateral dialogue; later that month, Prime Minister Modi himself made a surprise visit to Lahore to wish Nawaz Sharif on his birthday.
But the Pathankot terror attack of January 1, 2016; Pakistan’s arrest, that March, of former Navy officer Kulbhushan Jadhav on charges of spying and terrorism; and the Uri terror attack and India’s surgical strikes in September changed the course of the relationship. The February 2019 Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot air strike followed. After the constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, Pakistan downgraded ties, and bilateral trade and bus and train services stopped.
A ceasefire agreement has held since February 2021, but recent terror attacks and infiltration across the International Boundary has impacted the situation in Jammu. Last month, New Delhi sent a notice to Pakistan to modify and review the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty.
It is against this background that Jaishankar is travelling to Pakistan. While his visit signals the opening of a window of opportunity for further engagement, the aggressive Indian response in Goa last year and at the UN General Assembly this year is indication that he will not take any provocative statement from Pakistan — on Kashmir or terrorism, etc. — lying down.
For Pakistan, which is facing unprecedented challenges within, this is a fraught moment.
Its “excellent army”, as the political scientist and South Asia scholar Stephen P Cohen wrote, “depends upon a failing economy, a divided society, and unreliable politicians”. But the Pakistan Establishment’s failure to ensure a favourable election result, and the continuing protests by the PTI and other groups, have laid bare some significant limitations.
