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Journalism of Courage
While India’s ties with Maldives seemed under unprecedented strain just months ago, the country’s President, Dr Mohamed Muizzu, is now here on a state visit.
Muizzu assumed office in November last year. His election campaign had centered on the ‘India Out’ movement, and soon after coming to power, he had insisted India’s troops leave the island.
India and Maldives have traditionally enjoyed strong bilateral ties, and India is a major aid provider to the island nation.
Muizzu, however, was perceived as being closer to China and less warm towards India. Weeks after he assumed office, Muizzu traveled on official visits to Turkey and China. His visit to China was considered an intentional diplomatic snub to New Delhi, because traditionally, Muizzu’s predecessors had made their first official visits to India, in a nod to New Delhi’s importance in bilateral relations.
It did not help that days before Muizzu’s visit to China, a few deputy ministers used social media to call Prime Minister Narendra Modi derogatory names, and mocked his social media posts promoting tourism in Lakshadweep islands. That set off a larger battle on social media between Maldivians and Indians, to the extent that it required intervention on a diplomatic level.
The row between the two countries only increased when Muizzu indirectly took a jibe at India, saying no one had “the licence to bully” the small country. He also set a March 15 deadline for India to withdraw its military personnel from the country.
Indian soldiers had been sent to the Maldives at various points for training Maldivian troops, in combat, reconnaissance, and rescue-aid operations. But there was a strong fear among sections in the Maldives about Indian soldiers spreading across the island, which also played out as part of the ‘India Out’ campaign.
Earlier this year, India removed its 80-odd soldiers from the country. Since then, Muizzu has softened his approach on the subject, and has said he disapproved of the presence of foreign military in the Maldives regardless of the country.
Good relations with Maldives are strategically important for India, and Muizzu’s apparent preference for China could have been a worry for New Delhi.
Context to Muizzu’s changed approach
Muizzu’s changed approach to bilateral relations should not come as a surprise. Experts had told indianexpress.com during the Maldives presidential elections that rhetoric politicians employ during electoral campaigns don’t always translate to official policy decisions.
Domestic priorities and pressing socio-economic concerns mean that Muizzu would not want to alienate India. He had earlier said that “Maldives would never do anything that undermines the security of India. India is a valued partner and friend of the Maldives, and our relationship is built on mutual respect and shared interests. While we enhance our cooperation with other countries in various sectors, we remain committed to ensuring that our actions don’t compromise the security and stability of our region”.
For now, Muizzu is staring at a looming economic crisis and an imminent debt repayment on his hands. Just before his visit to India, Muizzu flagged the need for financial aid to his country, saying Delhi is “fully cognisant” of the island nation’s fiscal situation and will always be ready to “ease the burden” as one of Male’s biggest development partners. Analysts believe that Muizzu is expected to request a currency swap arrangement and debt support during bilateral talks at India’s Hyderabad House in New Delhi.
Last month, global agency Moody’s downgraded Maldives’ credit rating, saying that “default risks have risen materially”. Maldives is looking at a debt default as its foreign exchange reserves have dropped to $440 million, an amount that is just enough for one-and-a-half months of imports. India has already offered financial support worth $1.4 billion to the Maldives for various infrastructure and development projects.
In January, following the spat between Indians and Maldivians on social media, there was a call for a boycott of tourism to the Maldives. During this State visit, Muizzu said he hoped to welcome more Indian tourists to the island. According to Maldivian news publication Ashadha, the numbers of Indian tourists visiting the Maldives has dropped by 50,000, resulting in a loss of some $150 million. Indians have consistently been among the top-five nationalities to contribute to the Maldives’ tourism industry.
On Monday, President Muizzu was accorded a ceremonial reception at Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi, as part of his five-day bilateral visit. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called on him and, in a post on X, said he was confident Muizzu’s talks with PM Modi would “give a new impetus to our friendly ties.”
