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The past week saw several important news stories from China, but all eyes were on Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, where the Dalai Lama was expected to make a long-awaited announcement on his succession.
For centuries, the Dalai Lama (literally, “Ocean of Wisdom”) has served as the religious head of Tibetan Buddhism. However, there was a question mark on the institution’s future, over concerns of Chinese interference in the process. The current Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, had spoken in 2011 about taking a decision when he turned 90, and his 90th birthday is this Sunday (July 6). He has now said the institution would continue, drawing strong reactions from China. Click here to read more of The Indian Express’ extensive coverage of these recent events.
The Chinese Communist Party also marked an important date, with Tuesday being its 104th anniversary. A bulletin said it has more than 100 million members, making it among the world’s largest political organisations. However, beyond the congratulatory coverage on Chinese state media websites, there are areas of concern within, such as corruption. Last week, two senior military leaders were removed from the national legislature, with one member of China’s top military body purged in a corruption case. You can read more about it here.
Two reports were released on the health of Chinese manufacturing, painting a mixed picture but highlighting some common signs of worry. The US and China concluded a trade deal last week, and its details are not public yet.
Separately, it was confirmed that Chinese President Xi Jinping will miss the BRICS summit in Brazil from July 5 to 8. No explanation was given for his first absence at the grouping in 12 years, but the South China Morning Post hinted at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s planned meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a possibility, as we noted last week.
Here is a closer look at some of these developments:
Amid speculation over the Dalai Lama’s succession, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday, “China hopes India will stop using Tibet issues to interfere in domestic affairs and avoid affecting the development of ties.”
The same day, India’s External Affairs Ministry said in a statement, “Government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion. Government has always upheld freedom of religion for all in India and will continue to do so.”
On Sunday, Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, and Sikkim Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang will be in Dharamshala. Earlier in the week, the Dalai Lama announced that the Gaden Phodrang Trust — a non-profit organisation that his office set up in 2011 — would have the “sole authority” to recognise his reincarnation. In response, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, “The Dalai Lama’s reincarnation must follow the principles of domestic recognition… approval by the central government, in line with religious traditions and laws.”
UPSHOT: China invaded Tibet in 1950, a year after the establishment of its Communist republic. In 1959, an uprising was brutally suppressed, leading to the exodus of the current Dalai Lama and tens and thousands of his followers to Arunachal Pradesh.
China’s suspicions of India supporting Tibet predate the exodus, given the ties that they shared alongside a common border. Since the ’50s, China has asserted itself in Tibet, claiming historical legitimacy over it and introducing policies that often clamp down on its distinct culture. It has also previously put forward its own candidate for the position of the Panchen Lama, another senior Tibetan Buddhist figure.
Questions of succession and reincarnation could thus complicate the India-China relationship, which has seen signs of rapprochement since October 2024. It also comes at a time when the United States, which has traditionally supported the Dalai Lama and the cause of Tibet, is prioritising other issues, namely trade and immigration.
On the anniversary on Tuesday, an article by Xi Jinping was published in the Qiushi Journal, a flagship magazine of the party’s central committee. “On our path forward, major struggles will be inevitable. Confronted with encirclement, containment and suppression, we must fight back with confidence and rightful determination,” the article said, according to the party mouthpiece Global Times.
UPSHOT: The CCP was formed at a time of great political upheaval in China, a decade after the last imperial Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) fell. Several competing movements, groups and ideologies emerged to take on the leadership in the modern era. The feudal society was also beset by a belief that foreigners, including European traders who carved out spheres of influence and Japan’s military attacks, had humiliated and exploited China.
Communism grew from such movements, with the eventual Chinese President Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai playing central roles in the party’s formation. Representatives sent by the Comintern or the Communist International – an organisation founded by Russian communists to spread the ideology globally – were also sent to China. Indian leader MN Roy, who founded the Communist Party of India (CPI), visited China in 1927.
Since then, it can be argued that the party has drifted far from its origins — what the government calls “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”. Yet, under Xi Jinping, there has been a return to some of the initial focus on commitment to the party, ideology, and state control. Some of the themes he wrote about, such as encirclement, also harken back to ideas of foreign threats on China’s periphery, and a strong central authority, i.e. the party, protecting against them.
China’s factory activity returned to expansion in June, supported by an increase in new orders that lifted production, the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed. This marked an improvement from May.
However, China’s official PMI showed factory activity shrank for a third straight month in June, although there were slight improvements from April and May. “New export orders in both surveys remained in negative terrain in June, suggesting potential challenges for exports in the second half of the year,” a Reuters report said.
UPSHOT: Factory bosses said there were improvements in trade conditions and promotional activities to boost sales, according to the Caixin survey. This may be on account of the United States moving to improve its trade ties with China, and the two countries substantially rolling back their tariffs on each other in May.
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in the report, “With earlier policy measures aiming to stabilize the economy continuing to take effect, the overall operation of the economy remains stable, alongside a gradual recovery of market conditions. However, we must recognize that the external environment remains severe and complex, with increasing uncertainties. The issue of insufficient effective demand at home has yet to be fundamentally resolved.”
Ultimately, “unleashing consumption potential in the long term still relies on stabilizing employment, reinforcing confidence, and increasing incomes.” An upcoming July Politburo meeting will discuss the economy, but Goldman Sachs said it was unlikely to result in major stimulus measures.
