What happened in Bhutan’s elections — and are the results a win for India?

Tobgay, 58, is a conservationist and former civil servant with a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard University. He founded the liberal PDP in 2007, and previously served as prime minister from 2013 to 2018.

Here is all you need to know about democracy in Bhutan, the recently-concluded elections, and what they mean for India.

A promising young democracy

Unlike Pakistan and Bangladesh, where the fairness of elections is perennially in question, Bhutan’s elections have been relatively straightforward, without any complaints of tampering or uneven playing fields. Even after the incumbent was ousted in November, there were no crackdowns or violence reported, and no opposition figures have been imprisoned on politically motivated accusations.

This is quite the accomplishment, especially since Bhutan transitioned from a monarchy to a parliamentary democracy as recently as 2008. The nation is still ruled in the name of the monarch, however, the charming King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk holds little actual political authority.

Since the first elections were held, 15 years ago, Bhutan’s democratic system has significantly evolved. Whereas in the inaugural elections, only two parties were eligible to compete, the recent race saw five candidates. Moreover, compared to past elections, candidates this time had specific promises and positions, giving voters a genuine — and difficult — choice.

That being said, Bhutan’s democracy is far from perfect. DC-based political advocacy group Freedom House characterises the country as “partly free,” citing media censorship and discrimination against religious and linguistic minorities. Concerns remain about the lack of accountability among the Bhutanese political class.

Economic concerns key

The election this year took place against a dismal economic background in Bhutan. Its tourism industry is still reeling from the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the country has a youth unemployment rate of 29 per cent — over half of Bhutan’s population is under 30 years old and categorised as ‘youth’.

Moreover, data show that one in eight people in Bhutan are “struggling to meet their basic needs for food” and other necessities. Over the past five years, Bhutan’s GDP has grown at a snail’s pace of about 1.7 per cent on average. This is leading to record numbers of young people emigrating from Bhutan to places like Australia in pursuit of better opportunities.

These economic concerns were central to Tobgay’s successful campaign. He has pledged to encourage the investment required to strengthen the $3 billion Bhutan economy, and deal with the unemployment that he says is behind the “mass exodus” from Bhutan.

In fact Tobgay has always been one to talk about Bhutan’s grim economic challenges, and the contrast between the Himalayan country’s idyllic image and more depressing reality. “My country is not one big monastery populated with happy monks. As a tiny, impoverished nation, we are trying to survive,” he said in a 2016 TED talk.

Where India stands

India remains Bhutan’s biggest donor and ally, and will be crucial in helping with its economic recovery. India is funding multiple infrastructure initiatives in the country, including a newly announced railway project. Bhutan also has untapped hydroelectric potential, with New Delhi likely to be a lucrative client.

But in recent years, Bhutan has also been an arena of hostilities between India and Bhutan’s other neighbour China. Doklam, a border region claimed by both China and Bhutan, saw clashes between Indian and Chinese troops break out in 2017. Earlier this week, satellite photos purportedly depicting a Chinese military presence on Bhutan-claimed land were released by India’s NDTV.

Now Bhutan does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with China. However, the previous prime minister, Lotay Tshering, signed a joint cooperation agreement with Beijing in October 2023, which specified the duties of a joint technical team in delineating the border between the two. He was generally seen as more “pro-China”, to the extent that he was willing to negotiate with the country.

Newly-elected Tobgay, on the other hand, is very much considered to be pro-India, and thus hands a major boost to India’s strategic concerns in the region. On Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Tobgay for his victory on Twitter (now X). “Heartiest congratulations to my friend… Look forward to working together again to further strengthen our unique ties of friendship and cooperation,” he wrote.