Expert Explains: Making sense of the political upheaval in Bangladesh

In the two or three days before her resignation, however, it was becoming clear that the protests had spiraled into something more serious. The deaths of, and injuries to a large number of protesters transformed the situation. On August 3, the student leaders announced that the resignation of Sheikh Hasina was now their single-point demand. The protesters — students as well as people from other walks of life that had joined them — held the prime minister directly responsible for the violence unleashed against the students by the police and Awami League supporters.

How much did Hasina’s response to the protestors play a part in her eventual ouster?

Hasina’s response to these protests exposed her as a leader out of touch with the ordinary people, and the political sensibilities of the younger generation of Bangladeshis. The protests against quotas in government jobs for the children and grandchildren of those who fought in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War brought to light a level of economic disaffection that was sweeping the country’s educated youth.

Perhaps the most egregious example of the former prime minister’s insensitivity was her criticism of the protests at a press conference on July 14. “If the grandchildren of freedom fighters do not receive (quota) benefits,” she asked “who would get it? The grandchildren of Razakars?” The term refers to the much-hated collaborators with the Pakistani army during the country’s liberation war. Students reacted to Hasina’s derisive reference to them as Razakars, in an unexpected and bold manner, with many appropriating the term in social media and during protests. This, as commentator Samata Biswas points out, “enabled young people to overcome what they considered to be the restrictive legacy of the liberation war” and to claim that they are engaged in Bangladesh’s second war of liberation.

What next for Bangladesh? What are some pressing concerns that the new ruling dispensation needs to address?

Right now, the power vacuum is the most urgent issue facing Bangladesh. Since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, attacks on police stations have made policemen fearful of doing routine policing. This is understandable given the police’s history of being politicised and being used to suppress opposition in the name of upholding law and order. There have been reports of violence against minorities and of attacks on the homes and properties of Awami League politicians.

But it is encouraging that the country has been able to move fast on forming an interim government. On Tuesday after dissolving the parliament, the president appointed Muhammad Yunus, the pioneer of microfinance and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, as head of the interim government. Evidently, his name was proposed by the student protesters. Establishing public trust, restoring law and order, and guaranteeing the safety of all Bangladeshis must be the interim government’s top priorities right now.

Will Hasina’s departure see a return of the Islamists to power in Bangladesh?

The political landscape of Bangladesh is considerably more complex than the binary of the secularists and the Islamists. It is too early to say how the future politics of the country unfolds. But right now, one can say that neither the student protests nor the initial moves to forming the interim government point towards the return of Islamists to power.

And what next for Hasina and the Awami League? Can they make a comeback?

At least if we go by what Sheikh Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed Joy told BBC on the day her government fell, there will be no political comeback for Hasina. Because of her age and apparently because she is “so disappointed that after all her hard work, for a minority to rise up against her”, he sees no chance of Hasina returning to Bangladeshi politics.

However, the Awami League, as the oldest political party of Bangladesh and the party that played the leading role in the country’s struggle for independence, is likely to remain an important player in the politics of Bangladesh. To be sure, since the party has been discredited in the eyes of many citizens, it will have to overcome some serious challenges in the immediate future. But given its broad support-base, in the long run it will be difficult for Bangladesh to develop an inclusive polity without the representation of the traditional constituencies of the Awami League.

For the average protestor, what does this ‘victory’ mean?

That the protest movement of mostly young demonstrators managed to overthrow a 76-year-old veteran political leader, who despite once being a pro-democracy icon had turned increasingly authoritarian in recent years, must be heralded as a remarkable political achievement.

Prior to this the Supreme Court of Bangladesh had scaled back the quotas on government jobs, which was the main grievance of the student protesters.

In his speech on Monday Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman said that “each death will be investigated, and justice will be ensured”. This won’t be easy but is a promising start. That the students’ proposal to make Muhammad Yunus the head of the interim government was accepted was another victory of the protesters.

What do the latest developments mean for India? What are its likely impacts on trade, bilateral relations?

For the past fifteen years India had put most of its eggs in the Awami League basket. While the relationship between the two countries has improved significantly during the Awami League regime, there is a widespread perception in Bangladesh that the relationship has brought more benefit to India than to Bangladesh.

Given the unexpected nature of the political change in Bangladesh, India’s foreign policy establishment will now need to carefully navigate the fluid new political environment in the country. There is no reason to fear that there will be dramatic shifts in Bangladesh’s foreign policy of the kind that would go against Indian interests. But India will have to make a concerted effort to improve the perception gap in Bangladesh of the relationship being one-sided.

Sanjib Baruah is the Andy Matsui Distinguished Professor of the Humanities at the Asian University for Women in Chattogram, Bangladesh.